Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. There is no way a Republican will hold onto this seat in a higher turnout general election. It will probably be like the election in 1997 where Republican Bill Redmond won NM-03 because Democratic areas didnt turn out and the few Republican areas came out heavily. He lost the 1998 general by 54%-43%. The same thing is likely to happen to Ogonowski.
Well, no, it is not likely to happen to Ogonowski. He would have to actually win first, and no one has him ahead.