I'll be up in Massachusetts during the election. Personally, I am skeptical of the idea that Ogonowski can win; the only way he can is if enough people in places like Lawrence and Lowell don't know that there's an election, which entails little publicity, while the possibility of a Republican winning in Massachusetts would surely generate a lot of publicity.
The two big population centers in the district(Lowell and Lawrence), which cast about 16% of the district vote, went for John Kerry by more than 67%-33% in 2004. Assuming he can keep Tsongas to 60% in those areas, he would have to win the remainder of the district by at least 53%-47%, which Kerry won by 56%-43%. The only way this happens is if Democrats stay home in droves while every Republican voter in the district turns out.
There's no way he can keep Tsongas to below 60% in Lawrence, for example, which has been turning further and further left for the past couple of decades. However, if turnout is low in Lawrence, Ogonowski could theoretically win with Tsongas still getting around 70% there. Lawrence is heavily Hispanic (over 50%), one of the lowest information voting demographics, so turnout is likely to be low.
I know more about Lawrence than Lowell, so I can't say what prospects there are in Lowell for Ogonowski, but I think Donoghue (Tsongas's main primary opponent) was the mayor of Lowell. That probably increases awareness that there is an election in Lowell, but might also inspire some voters to switch (not many, though, as Donoghue was politically about identical to Tsongas, and the primary campaign was not particularly vicious or divisive). Tsongas also lives in Lowell, too.
Anyway, I don't see this being closer than the 10% divide in the SUSA poll.
