SurveyUSA (MA-05): Tsongas (D) 51%; Ogonowski (R) 41%.

[Mr.Phips]

I told you guys that this would be closer than expected.  Look for the DCCC or Tsongas to start running ads linking Ogonowski to the Conservative leadership in Washington in about two weeks. 

[Mr.Phips]

How is some right-wing dumbass in a uniform clearing 40 percent in Massachusetts? The Democrats need to be hitting this guy over and over.

You may not agree with the man but DO NOT ING DARE go after him for being in the military.

Shows what an idot you, and your party are turning out to be.

Hes not saying that he should be attacked for being in the military.  Attacking him on the issues is more than fair game.  Look what Republicans did to Tammy Duckworth. 

[Mr.Phips]

Not worth starting a new thread over, but in the Boston Globe today:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yes, I read this. 

[Mr.Phips]

Im going to make a prediction.  Tsongas will lose this race in a huge upset. 

[Mr.Phips]

I can't believe the Freepers think the Republicans are actually gonna win this one.

They're even more delusional than I thought.

Im a freeper?

[Mr.Phips]

I'll be up in Massachusetts during the election. Personally, I am skeptical of the idea that Ogonowski can win; the only way he can is if enough people in places like Lawrence and Lowell don't know that there's an election, which entails little publicity, while the possibility of a Republican winning in Massachusetts would surely generate a lot of publicity.

 The two big population centers in the district(Lowell and Lawrence), which cast about 16% of the district vote, went for John Kerry by more than 67%-33% in 2004.   Assuming he can keep Tsongas to 60% in those areas, he would have to win the remainder of the district by at least 53%-47%, which Kerry won by 56%-43%.  The only way this happens is if Democrats stay home in droves while every Republican voter in the district turns out. 

[Mr.Phips]

When does the GOP ever have a positive approval rating in Massachusetts?

If Ogonowski's showing can tack more closely to Romney's 2002 showing, or even "somewhat outpace" K. Murph's 2006 showing, he's in pretty good shape.  I mean, Lowell is pretty damn Democratic, but there are towns in this district that went around 3:1 for Mitt.

You think he will win?

[Mr.Phips]

Why is Marty Meehan still selfishly clinging to his $5.1 million war chest?

Because he's a selfish guy?

Seriously, it's for a future statewide run.  It's tough when the Junior Senator of your state has been around for "only" 23 years.

What motivation do GOP base voters have to vote in this special election? They're angry about immigration, a mishandled war, federal profligacy, and the ineptitude of their party's President. I doubt that Ogonowski will have the kind of grassroots army that lifted Ron Lewis to victory in 1994 and nearly pushed Paul Hackett to victory in 2005.

Well, first of all, the grassroots are highly overrated, but the fact that a candidate who honestly never should have had a shot is (allegedly) coming within single digits of a win can do a lot to motivate a team who's used to being so far out of the game that it's barely worth showing up to it.  (Besides, MA-05 is not the kind of district where the GOP base are xenophobic neo cons.)

And it's not like Democrats here have a lot to go wild about.  A solid portion of the Democratic base in the district is minority, and we know they probably won't even show up to the polls for an October Special Election.  And honestly, it's not like Democrats are doing a great job in Congress right now opposing the President and ending the war—that frustration is definitely evident in a large portion of the Democratic base here.

The turnout dynamics will be very interesting to see.

And with the 2008 Election heating up, more people are paying attention to that, with fewer paying attention to Bush, who thankfully hasn't done anything mind-numbingly stupid in the last few months.

And I'm not sure how much help the Democratic State Party will be for a race like this.  In my experience, they're virtually absent from scene because they're never needed.  I know that when I was working a "top tier" open-seat legislative race in '04, the Democrat got literally no help from the state party, and instead relied on a phalanx of special interests for cash and volunteers (unions and the gay lobby, to be specific).

I'm getting somewhat excited, because this may be the first real race Massachusetts has had in a long time—I think the last race that was even on the radar was the Torkildsen/Tierney rematch of 1998.  (Elections can be quite boring up here, if you can imagine.)

im going to guess that lowell and lawrence wont have good voter turnout for a special election.

That's pretty much a given.

And think about this: If Tsongas somehow loses, then Eileen Donaghue looks solid to pick the seat up in November 2008 when turnout is normal.  It's acutally to Donaghue's benefit for her to root for the Republican here.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing.  There is no way a Republican will hold onto this seat in a higher turnout general election.  It will probably be like the election in 1997 where Republican Bill Redmond won NM-03 because Democratic areas didnt turn out and the few Republican areas came out heavily.  He lost the 1998 general by 54%-43%.  The same thing is likely to happen to Ogonowski. 

[Mr.Phips]

Redmond won because a Green in Santa Fe siphoned off middle class liberal Anglo votes against an Hispanic machine hack, and Redmond took the seat with a plurality of something like 39% of the vote (don't hold me to that percentage). In the subsequent election, the third party factor was gone, and although Redmond worked hard at it, and did increase his vote with the Native Americans in particular in the Pueblos and beyond (up to something like maybe 43% of the total vote), it was not enough, and he lost. If the Pubbie wins in a clean two party race in the Mass-5, he will have a chance to cement himself into the seat, if he has the skills. Does he have the skills? I doubt it.

No matter what his skills are, it is going to be very difficult for an inexperienced Republican to hold a seat that Hillary Clinton is likely to carry by close to 2 to 1 in 2008.  Also, he is likely going to have to cast some tough votes that will be very unpopular in the district like against expanding S-CHIP and other economic issues. 

[Mr.Phips]

Sorry for my absence.

There is one other factor here that is not being mentioned. The candidate of the Lowell machine lost in the primary, and as was seen in the 1998 Governor's race, the Lowell Democratic machine is more than happy to back Republicans against a democrat they don't like in order to elect their democrat later. That year Cellucci actually won Lowell, wheras Romney lost it by 20+ points four years later because the machine turned out its votes for the GOP.

If Tsongas loses this time, then Elaine Donogue will be the obvious candidate for 2008. I have spoken with a number of Lowell Democrats, and several of them have said they are voting Ognowski for exactly this reason, one of them even has an impeach Bush sign.  They are concerned that if Tsongas gets in she will be in for the long term.

Ya, but maybe when the Lowell machine hack is baaaack!, enough Dems won't want the wicked witch to be reanimated. The Pubbie has a chance here, if he is skilled. I don't think voters in this district will resent one Pubbie representing their state in Congress, particularly if the Dems are otherwise in control, and particularly if that Pubbie points out the errancy of his party from time to time, in order to reinforce the preconceptions of some Dems that their views are indeed "bipartisan."  Leach in Iowa survived in a hostile environment for a very long time. It can be done.

Leach's district leaned Republican until about 1988, when Iowa shifted to the Democrats because of the Reagan farm policies.