SurveyUSA (MA-05): Tsongas (D) 51%; Ogonowski (R) 41%. (user search)
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  SurveyUSA (MA-05): Tsongas (D) 51%; Ogonowski (R) 41%. (search mode)
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Author Topic: SurveyUSA (MA-05): Tsongas (D) 51%; Ogonowski (R) 41%.  (Read 6014 times)
Brittain33
brittain33
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« on: October 01, 2007, 10:40:43 AM »

So yes Romney only lost by twelve, but if you include the Green votes he lost by 18. In 2005 Charlie Shannon, Republican turned Democrat who had held the seat since 1990 died, there was a special election. State Rep. Patricia Jehlen won the Democratic Primary, and beat Republican Bill White 55-45. White ran a good margin ahead of Romney.

That's an interesting race to analogize here, and I mean that positively. I would say that Jehlen wasn't just a weak candidate, she was hated by the old machine in Somerville which voted for Bill White as a protest. Conversely, Bill White wasn't that strong a candidate, he just enjoyed a solid reputation in Somerville and became the suitable vehicle for protest votes.

Differences: state vs. federal races, obviously. White was a liberal who differed from the city Democrats on local policies and has actually switched to the Democrats since that election. People didn't mind elected a Republican to the legislature, but might feel differently about sending George W. Bush another proxy in Washington. Secondly, I can't imagine people hate Niki Tsongas with the fervor they felt against Jehlen. Some people will want to vote against her because they don't respect her or how she won the nomination, but there will be no STOP TSONGAS campaign the way there was against Jehlen.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2007, 12:05:00 PM »

That would seem to be a pretty polarized seat - maybe all that really happened was that Somerville turnout was down far more than in the Republican parts?

It's not that polarized... Winchester is more Republican than Medford or Somerville, but not by much, and the population is small. There's no Republican infrastructure anywhere in the district. In this case, a large contingent of voters in Somerville opted for Bill White because they knew him from town and wanted to vote against Pat Jehlen.  This race was driven by personalities, not issues or party. 

Mr. Moderate, "hate" is not too strong a word. If you have time to waste, you should see how Jehlen and her allies are discussed in The Somerville News.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2007, 03:37:54 PM »


Winchester went 59-37 for Romney in 2002 but only made up 10% of the seat. medford went 50-45 for Shannon O'Brien and made up 30%. Somerville went 61-29 for O'Brien in 2002.

Ok, I can't argue with that. It must be because of the lack of opportunities to vote for viable Republicans that I had the wrong impression about Winchester.

Regardless, Winchester isn't what made Jehlen-White close.
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