SurveyUSA (MA-05): Tsongas (D) 51%; Ogonowski (R) 41%.

[Dan the Roman]

Sorry for my absence.

There is one other factor here that is not being mentioned. The candidate of the Lowell machine lost in the primary, and as was seen in the 1998 Governor's race, the Lowell Democratic machine is more than happy to back Republicans against a democrat they don't like in order to elect their democrat later. That year Cellucci actually won Lowell, wheras Romney lost it by 20+ points four years later because the machine turned out its votes for the GOP.

If Tsongas loses this time, then Elaine Donogue will be the obvious candidate for 2008. I have spoken with a number of Lowell Democrats, and several of them have said they are voting Ognowski for exactly this reason, one of them even has an impeach Bush sign.  They are concerned that if Tsongas gets in she will be in for the long term.

[Dan the Roman]

If this race truly tightens, expect the DCCC to pump cash. Despite the anecdotal evidence, I still expect a 5% victory for Tsongas.

Probably about right. We had a Senate Race last year that looked a bit like this. Ultra-Heavy Democratic District(Romney lost it by 20 points in 2002), but a weak Democrat against a strong Republican. It looked like it was getting close and ended being about 54-46. The last five points are enormous climb for a Republican in Mass. Its good that Ognowski has gotten close, but each point afterwards is going to be a mammoth climb.

[Dan the Roman]

It was a special election for the Second Middlesex, which encompeses Somerville, Winchester, and Medford. Winchester went 59-37 for Romney in 2002 but only made up 10% of the seat. medford went 50-45 for Shannon O'Brien and made up 30%. Somerville went 61-29 for O'Brien in 2002.

in 2002:

Romney 21,229 40%
O'Brien  27,382 52%
Stein(Green) 3090 6%
Howell(Lib) 478 1%
Johson 286 1%

So yes Romney only lost by twelve, but if you include the Green votes he lost by 18. In 2005 Charlie Shannon, Republican turned Democrat who had held the seat since 1990 died, there was a special election. State Rep. Patricia Jehlen won the Democratic Primary, and beat Republican Bill White 55-45. White ran a good margin ahead of Romney.

[Dan the Roman]

White actually did best in Somerville. He lost Winchester and Medford 60-40 each. What is interesting is that turnout in Winchester was down from 5000 in the primary to 2000 in the general. Paul Casey, an ultra-conservative Democrat had won 2500 votes there in the primary. Had they turned out in the general for White he would have won.

Living in Winchester, my understanding though is that people saw nothing to choose between two Somerville liberals.