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Author Topic: French Elections 1848-2010  (Read 111534 times)
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« Reply #550 on: March 17, 2012, 03:09:19 pm »
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Well, yes. Then again, the problem may be right here:
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Considered as "left" all parties wich admitt themselve this qualification.

The pattern of MODEM voters for second rounds the last few years has not exactly been to support UMP en bloc.
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« Reply #551 on: March 17, 2012, 05:50:47 pm »
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Well, yes. Then again, the problem may be right here:
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Considered as "left" all parties wich admitt themselve this qualification.

The pattern of MODEM voters for second rounds the last few years has not exactly been to support UMP en bloc.


yes, i admitt this point, but I don't considere than all non-left block belong to a right-block.

The only (from my point of view) way to calculate force of the lefts is to objectivically aggregate all parties wich themsleves considere belong to left.


If I would had made a graph of aggregate of the rights, I would not had include MODEM
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« Reply #552 on: March 18, 2012, 04:40:13 am »
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Yeah, not including them in such a historical graph makes sense... drawing conclusions from the graph for this year's presidential election without taking the factor into account is what doesn't. Smiley
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« Reply #553 on: March 29, 2012, 08:54:16 pm »

Something big will be up tomorrow (hopefully). Stay tuned or take guesses.
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« Reply #554 on: March 29, 2012, 09:17:34 pm »
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Looking forward ! Smiley
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

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« Reply #555 on: March 30, 2012, 10:25:18 am »

Here it is!



For 2007 comparisons: http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/Cantons2007.png

Errors are possible, given that in a lot of places the Ministry has decided to troll us around by giving us 'inverted' results; this is the case in Lyon, Garches, Suresnes, La Garenne-Colombe, Romilly-sur-Seine, Chapelle-Saint-Luc and so on. I've self-corrected the obvious errors myself, some others might not be so obvious and appear wrong on this map.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2012, 10:29:16 am by Mitt Romney/Niki Ashton 2012 »Logged

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« Reply #556 on: March 30, 2012, 12:16:35 pm »
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This is great. Smiley It's interesting to compare the two maps.
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« Reply #557 on: March 31, 2012, 08:07:14 am »

Wow well that's disappointing. Nobody seems to care Sad
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« Reply #558 on: March 31, 2012, 08:31:13 am »
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Oh, I do care.
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« Reply #559 on: March 31, 2012, 10:04:54 am »

TEH FNS STOLESZ TEH VOTES FRUM TEH COMMISZ!

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« Reply #560 on: March 31, 2012, 10:06:49 am »
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What exactly is that graph supposed to prove?

Now, if "selected working-class areas" was instead "PCF's best cantons of 1985"...
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« Reply #561 on: March 31, 2012, 10:14:58 am »

What exactly is that graph supposed to prove?

Now, if "selected working-class areas" was instead "PCF's best cantons of 1985"...

That there is a strong negative correlation between strong PCF performances and strong FN performances, which holds true not only for 2010 but also for 1995. And still holds true even if comparing the FN's 2010 performance with Hue's 1995 performance (or Hue 1995 with JMLP 2002). Everybody with half a brain has proven that the FN has tended to perform below average in most historic PCF strongholds, and that the FN's best performances in working-class areas are/were in those which were historically right-wing. Apparently the [lack of] correlations could be even starker at a precinct level.

'selected working-class areas' are a sample of 130ish communes including historic PCF strongholds, strongly PS areas and right-wing areas.
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« Reply #562 on: March 31, 2012, 10:18:26 am »
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That there is a strong negative correlation between strong PCF performances and strong FN performances, which holds true not only for 2010 but also for 1995.
Strongish. It's clearly not that great.
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that the FN's best performances in working-class areas are/were in those which were historically right-wing.
Yes, that sounds reasonable to me.
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« Reply #563 on: March 31, 2012, 10:25:27 am »

FTR, the correlation numbers are:
1995: -0.5557 (strong)
Jospin R2-Le Pen R1 1995: -0.5018 (strong)
2002: -0.484
2007: -0.0848 (the PCF numbers are likely way too tiny to be significant)
2010: -0.3164 (medium)
PCF 95-LP 2002: -0.4761
PCF 95-FN 2010: -0.36328

Strongish. It's clearly not that great.

Well, obviously. Nothing is ever black and white, but pretty clearly the media's favourite theory that the PCF's decline is caused in large part by their voters going FN is fabricated bullsh**t. The correlation tends to be weaker in inner suburban working-class hinterland and far stronger in old, more ruralish, PCF working-class villages/mining towns and so forth.
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« Reply #564 on: March 31, 2012, 10:32:35 am »
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FTR, the correlation numbers are:
1995: -0.5557 (strong)
Jospin R2-Le Pen R1 1995: -0.5018 (strong)
2002: -0.484
Yes, that's definitely "strong" rather than "strongish" as far as political correlations go.

Nothing is ever black and white, but pretty clearly the media's favourite theory that the PCF's decline is caused in large part by their voters going FN is fabricated bullsh**t.
Journalists. Voting patterns. Need I say more? Next thing we'll be discussing how journalists have no clue about football support culture. Or how politicians have no clue about voting patterns. Grin

(The issue is ancient. I recently read a book about where the nazi voters came from.)
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« Reply #565 on: April 01, 2012, 12:46:06 pm »
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Oh, I do care.

Me too.
But it's rather depressing for me: it was the good old times, when the right was still pretty strong in inner West, in Ile-de-France or in all the Massif Central.
Corrèze is almost readable immediately in this map !
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« Reply #566 on: April 01, 2012, 12:48:32 pm »
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Oh, I do care.

Me too.
But it's rather depressing for me: it was the good old times, when the right was still pretty strong in inner West, in Ile-de-France or in all the Massif Central.
Corrèze is almost readable immediately in this map !

The 1995-2012 swing in Corrèze will be hilarious to see. Grin
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« Reply #567 on: April 12, 2012, 07:18:35 pm »

Even though this election year is boring as sh**tte, it certainly has led to some very welcome developments in French electoral geography. I've found a website which gives some fantastic result maps within major cities at a poll-by-poll level. To wet your appetite:





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« Reply #568 on: April 16, 2012, 10:44:05 am »

Nobody seems to care, but here's an interesting map:

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« Reply #569 on: April 16, 2012, 11:03:07 am »
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Good idea. Does this correlate at all with the decline in the vote for Laguiller and the PCF?
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« Reply #570 on: April 16, 2012, 11:11:16 am »
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Nobody seems to care, but here's an interesting map:



This is very interesting ! Could you explain the geographic patterns ?
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #571 on: April 16, 2012, 11:54:55 am »
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Commies for Besancenot, I think.

(oh, and we all care a great deal. This is one of the best threads in the forum. It's just that it's not always easy to think up of an intelligent response to such extended prettiness).
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« Reply #572 on: April 16, 2012, 03:50:56 pm »

Nobody seems to care, but here's an interesting map:



This is very interesting ! Could you explain the geographic patterns ?

The main trends are a weakening of the Besancenot vote in urban areas, especially those which are bobo/well-off/middle class and a pretty important strengthening in rural working-class and urban working poor/suburban hinterland. Notice stuff like the 93, Lyon, Grenoble, Marseille, Lille or the Seine-Maritime. If exit polls are to be believed, he held only 40% or so of his 2002 vote in 2007, losing a significant amount of voters to Royal as part of the 'vote utile' but gaining a much more working-class base through people who had voted Arlette or Hue in 2002 or those Hue95>Arlette02 voters. The LCR, up until 2002, had attracted a much more bourgeois/revolutionary youth/bobo clientele than LO which has always had a fairly proletarian base. They totally lost it in 2007, might have started regaining it with the NPA in 2008, lost it to EELV in 2009.

btw, I picked up Goguel's atlas of sorts of elections between 1871 and 1956. Anybody up for some old maps?
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« Reply #573 on: April 16, 2012, 04:01:10 pm »
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I see, Besancenot saw the erosion of his traditional bobo/trendy electoral base but benefitted from the regrouping of the "left of the left" under his name as a result of the utter failure of Laguiller/Buffet/Bové.

It's fun when you think about how pathetic the total "left of the left" vote was pathetic in 2007. The "useful vote" mechanic was indeed very strong at this time. So, quite ironically, there are probably a sizable share of Royal voters who won't vote Hollande this time (otherwise Mélenchon's standing is hard to explain). Which also tells us how much Hollande has taken away from centrists or center-leftist (Bayrou supporters in 2007).
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #574 on: April 16, 2012, 06:19:44 pm »
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btw, I picked up Goguel's atlas of sorts of elections between 1871 and 1956. Anybody up for some old maps?

Always.
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