French election maps
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Author Topic: French election maps  (Read 239952 times)
Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #600 on: June 16, 2012, 08:01:33 AM »

Great job ! Smiley

For once, my canton voted the right way... Tongue
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big bad fab
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« Reply #601 on: June 16, 2012, 11:08:17 AM »

Wonderful !

Apart from big cities and rich bobos areas, only the rightist countryside is in green... but Mayenne's or Maine-et-Loire's divides are fascinating. Also these few cantons in Côte d'Or

Vivent les Chouans ! Vivent les Vendéens !


That said without any irony, in fact... Smiley
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Hashemite
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« Reply #602 on: December 11, 2012, 09:33:33 PM »

Here's a fun work-in-progress: 2012 runoff results for overseas people, by precinct/polling location as accurately as possible:



Errors possible, in terms of assigning regions to a precinct/polling location because for some countries it's a bit unclear (hard to find a list of sub-national entities in each country and which polling place they belong to); in some cases (large cities) a bunch of precincts are averaged together.

Very fun patterns.

full size: http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/France2012.png
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #603 on: December 11, 2012, 09:42:35 PM »

That's a fantastic project.

Can you zoom to the USA? I can't believe Vermonters voted for Sarko. Sad Sad Sad
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Hashemite
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« Reply #604 on: December 12, 2012, 09:09:12 AM »

That's a fantastic project.

Can you zoom to the USA? I can't believe Vermonters voted for Sarko. Sad Sad Sad

It seems like photobucket doesn't show the full view, unfortunately. Maybe when it's done I'll find a way to post the entire thing

How many French people actually live in Vermont? Like 2? Anyway, VT-NH-RI-ME and non-Cambridge MA voters had only a single precinct in Boston, and turnout there was like 18% (against 40% in Cambridge). Same thing for the 5 French people living in WI, IN, IA, MO and KS who had a precinct in Chicago where turnout was 14%.

In the US, Flanby won New Orleans (with nearly 60%), two precincts in NYC which apparently correspond to Brooklyn/Williamsburg (but lost NYC heavily because Sarko got 65-70% in Manhattan), Portland, 2/3 precincts in San Francisco Wink, Berkeley and one of the 2 precincts in MontCo/PGC in Maryland.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #605 on: December 12, 2012, 11:26:01 AM »

Any particular reason the cantons around Paris get so small?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #606 on: December 12, 2012, 12:53:25 PM »

Any particular reason the cantons around Paris get so small?

It's high density suburbs.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #607 on: December 12, 2012, 01:47:36 PM »

Any particular reason the cantons around Paris get so small?

Uh, is this question for real? Because there's more population, obviously; even if cantons are badly malapportioned.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #608 on: December 12, 2012, 02:51:33 PM »

Any particular reason the cantons around Paris get so small?

Uh, is this question for real? Because there's more population, obviously; even if cantons are badly malapportioned.

Well, for an outside POW, someone could have through they were the equivalent of US counties.
Simfan: Cantons are the districts used for electing the departmental assemblies. They are the equivalent of State House districts, exept they were draw in the early 1800's and barely redistricted since then.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #609 on: December 12, 2012, 03:36:54 PM »

That's a fantastic project.

Can you zoom to the USA? I can't believe Vermonters voted for Sarko. Sad Sad Sad

It seems like photobucket doesn't show the full view, unfortunately. Maybe when it's done I'll find a way to post the entire thing

How many French people actually live in Vermont? Like 2? Anyway, VT-NH-RI-ME and non-Cambridge MA voters had only a single precinct in Boston, and turnout there was like 18% (against 40% in Cambridge). Same thing for the 5 French people living in WI, IN, IA, MO and KS who had a precinct in Chicago where turnout was 14%.

In the US, Flanby won New Orleans (with nearly 60%), two precincts in NYC which apparently correspond to Brooklyn/Williamsburg (but lost NYC heavily because Sarko got 65-70% in Manhattan), Portland, 2/3 precincts in San Francisco Wink, Berkeley and one of the 2 precincts in MontCo/PGC in Maryland.

Ah, Ok, sorry. Since I didn't see the map very well I thought every state had its own precinct.

But if Hollande won SF, that's enough to me. Smiley
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Hashemite
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« Reply #610 on: December 13, 2012, 03:55:20 PM »

Here's the finished product; 5% scaled as per usual



Facebook doesn't shrink it too small, so the larger version is pretty tolerable: http://sphotos-a.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/459573_398811703528050_1496884130_o.png

Same comments about some of the approximate boundaries of 'precincts' in some countries, but still most boundaries within countries are accurate. I coloured in France itself with the actual results by region.

I'll be back with comments later.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #611 on: December 13, 2012, 07:07:51 PM »

That's beautiful, congratulations.

There are many things I would like to have explained, but I don't know how to begin. Wink You should definitely go through all this stuff.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #612 on: December 13, 2012, 07:14:32 PM »

That's beautiful, congratulations.

There are many things I would like to have explained, but I don't know how to begin. Wink You should definitely go through all this stuff.

Go ahead and ask, it will help me focus my observations better (and not forget anything)
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #613 on: December 13, 2012, 07:26:24 PM »

I don't have many specific questions, just interested in understanding the whole picture. What explains the divide in the US (Hollande strong in the West Coast and Louisiana, but weak in the Northeast), why Hollande swept most countries of Western Europe, why he did so well in the Middle East, what's behind the divide in African countries, etc...

Actually, it would be quicker to tell you what I think I do understand. South America seems to be closely correlated to wealth (plus the obvious Anti-Chavez effect in Venezuela), Canada has a rather logical divide, and Eastern Europe is understandably right-leaning.
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homelycooking
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« Reply #614 on: December 13, 2012, 07:28:46 PM »

What sort of French expatriate lives or votes in Indonesia or Central Asia?
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« Reply #615 on: December 13, 2012, 08:51:10 PM »

Here goes:

In Canada, it's fairly logical. French people in Quebec aren't business-type expats, there are a lot of teachers or otherwise left-leaning people from France who wanted to settle in a similarly left-leaning and Francophone place. Hollande actually narrowly lost Ontario (which also includes MB and SK) outside Ottawa, the people in Toronto are probably more business types while the French community in the NCR include a lot of teachers. Calgary is also obvious, probably a bunch of business and oil people.

The US is fairly simple if approached from a wealth perspective. Hollande won basically the teachers, hippies and academics (Williamsburg, Berkeley, SF, Portland and this probably explains Louisiana and NM too). Otherwise, French people who choose to move to the US should be expected to be from right-leaning demographics (business, wealthy people) and right-wing themselves given the US' reputation in France. I will admit that Louisiana and NM being so strongly leftie (over 55%) is a tad surprising, but New Orleans probably doesn't draw many business types and the oil people are probably in Dallas or the rest of Texas which is really right-wing. In the Northeast, the French people I would expect are probably pretty wealthy and business-type people who live in Manhattan or NYC suburbia. Miami was over 80% for Sarko, which shouldn't be surprising, given that it probably draws some older heliotropic resort/coastal peoples who chose to move to a place like Florida to begin with. Las Vegas is probably similar, it shouldn't be too hard to think of who would move to a place like that. In the Bay Area, the tech people in the Silicon Valley and the wealthy people in the Bay suburbs being Sarkozysts isn't too hard to explain.

The 'resort' effect (plus maybe some French hotel owners) is also there in Mexico (Cancun was 61% Sarko), the Dominican (Samana was 75% Sarko), Bahamas (79%), Puerto Rico (67%) and Jamaica (60% Sarko). In contrast, French people who move to Cuba should be expected to be very leftie if you go live in a place like that (and, the Cuban government basically chased out foreign hotel owners and owns a majority share in most hotels, plus the foreign hotel owners are probably Spanish). Same thing in Nicaragua. I don't know if any hardcore French Chavistas moved to Venezuela, but if there are any it's probably drowned out by oil people.

In South America, yeah, wealth seems to be a big factor. Brazil is a nice example, Sarko won the country because he got over 60% in Sao Paulo and it shouldn't be hard to see who would move to SP. The divide in Ecuador and Bolivia is really interesting too. Paraguay is a bit weird, though.

In western Europe, it's not too surprising. In Spain, Sarko swept the resort people in Girona, Tarragona, the Balearics, Alicante and Malaga (and Tenerife); the French outside those places are probably more left-leaning teachers, students, academics and other assorted leftist demographics. Portugal is interesting, probably more resort types.

In Italy, the Sarkozysts are ski bunnies in Aosta and business types in Milan; Rome, Turin, the south etc probably have more teachers and other leftist demographics.

In the UK, Sarko won big with people in SW London (which extended into parts of southern England) - affluent business/entrepreneurial types living in affluent parts of the country; plus Aberdeen which is probably offshore oil (like Stavanger in Norway). The other parts of the UK and Ireland would naturally have less rightist business/entrepreneurial types, for example it's hard to see those types moving to Liverpool (over 70% Hollande) or Glasgow (69% Flanby).

In Germany, Sarko won Dusseldorf (probably business people) and Augsburg/Swabia (I guess affluent business types from Munich?) and Frankfurt and most of Bavaria/BW was close too. Hollande owned in the GDR and Berlin, over 75%; not too hard to imagine the type of people who would move there.

Belgium and Switzerland are basically rich people who don't want to pay taxes, obviously.

I actually found the Balkans interesting. I would have expected Montenegro and Croatia to be uber-Sarkozyst and I would have thought at least Serbia and maybe Slovenia might have had more business types (which are probably those who moved to Poland/Romania/Bulgaria/Russia etc).

In Algeria, Hollande won 85-90% of the vote and even if turnout was really low there, most voters there are binationals who have moved back to Algeria. Tunisia and Morocco have those too, and I would think the old countries in FWA would too; Tunisia and Morocco however also have a resort population - Sarko won Marrakesh and Agadir (Algeria, obviously, has no resort people). In Mali/Niger etc, you probably have a small population of teachers/humanitarians/some binationals with no business or oil people. Cote d'Ivoire is only different because you only have security mercenaries/a few business types left over since 2002/2010. Libya had 12% turnout, but French people living there now are probably mercenaries or oil people.

The divide in other African countries is quite interesting; Congo-Brazzaville is a really cool example of this. The Sarko types are oil people - Nigeria, Gabon, Pointe-Noire (Congo), Angola, mainland Equatorial Guinea. In the RDC, not a lot of voters and the business people might be Belgian instead. South Africa (and Namibia) is probably a bunch of business people again. In Madagascar, Sarko basically won the small resort places and tiny Mauritius is similar (Hollande won Port-Louis, got trounced in the rest of the island). In Zimbabwe, Mugabe probably chased out white business people and in the other east African countries it's probably a few teachers, humanitarians and so forth. Djibouti probably has a lot of military types.

Israel was over 90% Sarko, and I would think most are French Jews and the type who actually live in Israel must be even more hawkish and all that Jews in France. On the other hand, Hollande won 84% with the 70ish French voters in the West Bank; not hard to imagine those who choose to move to Palestine. Lebanon is interesting as well, Sarko won over 75% in eastern Beirut and Jounieh - probably some really right-wing Christian Lebanese dual citizens?

Iraq and Iran are surprising, given the Eastern Province in KSA and the Gulf states. Dubai, Qatar are probably due in large part to resort-type people, but Khobar, Bahrain is certainly due to oil (who the hell would live in those sh**tholes otherwise). Jordan has no oil, I guess Iraq's oil industry is run by Americans and Turkey also has no oil. Syria had like 2% turnout, because the precinct was in Lebanon (for obvious reasons...) I guess some pretty determined leftists drove out to Beirut to vote Smiley

In India, Flanby killed in Pondicherry where most French people live (I guess most are probably teachers or other leftist non-business types) while Sarko won pretty easily in Bangalore (probably the white businessmen in the tech industry). I would have expected Central Asian stans to be more Sarko (like Turkmenistan was), though I probably overestimated the number of business/oil types. Myanmar was surprising too, though maybe the businessmen didn't come yet. In Thailand, Sarko swept the resorts and Bangkok probably draws some affluent businessmen/entrepreneurs; like Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia and of course China (and probably Australia). Vietnam has an interesting north-south thing going on, Hanoi was strongly leftie and Saigon was strongly Sarko but it's pretty understandable given the type of city Saigon is (afaik). Cambodia and certainly Laos probably don't have much business people there.

Japan and Korea is interesting, I would certainly have expected way more business people to be there; but I guess that since both are developed countries by now, you probably don't have the same number of foreign owners/business people/entrepreneurs that you have in China or parts of Africa. Probably draws more teachers or other left-leaning demographics instead.

Note: Moldova and Jeddah were tied; countries in gray have no embassies and no record of a voting station being opened (unlike other places which lack an embassy but still had a decentralized voting station, like the Bahamas or Barbados), but French people in those countries probably voted in the countries with an embassy responsible for their country (ex: Abidjan covers Liberia, Conakry covers Sierra Leone, Bern covers Liechtenstein, Jakarta covers East Timor).
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #616 on: December 13, 2012, 10:30:58 PM »

Thank you, that's fascinating and makes everything much clearer! I admit I had little to no idea what kind of expats lived where, apart from a few obvious cases.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #617 on: December 14, 2012, 12:42:23 PM »


In India, Flanby killed in Pondicherry where most French people live (I guess most are probably teachers or other leftist non-business types)
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« Reply #618 on: January 13, 2013, 05:51:44 PM »

Bump for good measure. I'm not sure why I did this map, other than to revive this thread.



I welcome requests.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #619 on: January 14, 2013, 06:55:21 AM »

Nice one. Smiley I'm starting to get the pattern. Wink
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Hashemite
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« Reply #620 on: January 14, 2013, 07:30:23 PM »

Maps for all those also-ran candidates or lists are always quite interesting, even if they're friends-and-neighbors maps quite often

Marcilhacy in 1965:


Muller in 1974:


The Malaud-Poujade-Medecin list (Union de défense interprofessionnelle pour une France indépendante dans une Europe solidaire) in the 1979 Euros. A much messier and unclear map, but it is extremely interesting


I'm not sure if anybody besides Antonio and a few others care much about this thread, but yeah, if anybody has specific requests.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #621 on: January 14, 2013, 07:42:04 PM »

Any particular reason for CNIP's poor showing in Limousin?
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Hashemite
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« Reply #622 on: January 14, 2013, 07:48:59 PM »

Any particular reason for CNIP's poor showing in Limousin?

The Limousin is and has been a left-wing stronghold for ages and ages now; so naturally the CNIP had little local networks there at any given point.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #623 on: January 15, 2013, 07:36:50 AM »

Poujade? That Poujade? He ran in a CNIP list in 1979? ROFL.
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Zanas
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« Reply #624 on: January 21, 2013, 05:40:45 AM »

A few things.

Those Marchais strongholds in Somme, northern Brittany and all over the Golfe du Lion coast make me quite sad today, considering...

Émile Muller one is breathtaking ! This St-Malo-Nice divide is near perfect ! Not really sure it means anything though, considering the very small shares. I get Alsace, of course, but what was going on in Somme ?

I went to see who he was, and I saw that every socialist mayor of Mulhouse was bound to betray and end up allying or just plain enlisting with the right-wing. Happened with Wagner, Muller, Klifa and Bockel. To be fair, Wagner hadn't a majority on his own.
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