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Hash
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« Reply #700 on: December 10, 2013, 11:31:49 AM »

Some human interest stories on Brachay (52), a tiny village most famous for giving 72% to Panzergirl.

http://www.lemonde.fr/municipales/article/2013/12/10/brachay-au-front-du-terroir_3527514_1828682.html
http://www.rue89.com/rue89-presidentielle/2012/04/05/dans-ces-villages-de-haute-marne-vote-fn-et-ne-saime-pas-230635?com=select&c=2

Pretty interesting stuff, although as always the media likes to overgeneralize things and grasp at straws.
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #701 on: February 20, 2014, 01:41:56 PM »

A few months ago a guy in France sent me the Atlas électoral de la France 1848-2001 which is one of the best books in human history for somebody like me. Here are a few pictures of the coolest maps in the book:





More forthcoming if there's any interest.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #702 on: February 20, 2014, 05:27:05 PM »

Now explain the pattern Smiley
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Zanas
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« Reply #703 on: February 21, 2014, 05:23:46 AM »

A few things :
- What's with this Charentais tropism of bonapartist vote ? I wouldn't have expected it but it's huge !
- Happy to see, even if I knew I'd see it, such a republican Limousin. Just a tad bit disappointed to see a bonapartist candidate in first in the Millevaches Plateau of all places ! Explanation ? Well, I'll try to seek one myself.
- Ariège is also a solid and continuing stronghold of our side.
- Very, very interesting to see to observe Paris' East-West divide in the legislative election, pretty much exactly the same as today !
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« Reply #704 on: February 21, 2014, 02:34:39 PM »

- Very, very interesting to see to observe Paris' East-West divide in the legislative election, pretty much exactly the same as today !

More detailed stuff on Paris from that era:



I'll explain some of the main patterns a bit later on (as far as I have the knowledge to do so).
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Zanas
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« Reply #705 on: February 22, 2014, 08:58:53 AM »

And thus we see why the 5th is winnable by the left, whereas the 6th isn't.
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homelycooking
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« Reply #706 on: February 25, 2014, 09:14:02 PM »

I pick up where Hash left off. Bordeaux '07.

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homelycooking
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« Reply #707 on: March 07, 2014, 10:59:53 PM »
« Edited: March 08, 2014, 08:43:23 AM by homelycooking »

Whee! I can't stop doing this.

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« Reply #708 on: November 13, 2014, 05:21:25 PM »

To upkeep this thread, I'll post a few maps of the EP results by constituency:



And a very telling map of a PS shellacking

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Hash
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« Reply #709 on: November 13, 2014, 08:04:50 PM »

Not EP 2014, but here is the PS' comparable shellacking 20 years ago:

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morgieb
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« Reply #710 on: November 17, 2014, 12:30:58 AM »

What attracts the North (Nord) to far-right morons? I guess the coast would be because of olds, but still..

And the South (Sud) to the PS?
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swl
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« Reply #711 on: November 17, 2014, 04:30:24 AM »

What attracts the North (Nord) to far-right morons? I guess the coast would be because of olds, but still..
You can compare with the unemployment map:

 
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Colbert
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« Reply #712 on: November 17, 2014, 02:20:31 PM »

To upkeep this thread, I'll post a few maps of the EP results by constituency:



And a very telling map of a PS shellacking





have you the same maps but with numbers ending by 0 or 5 ?
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #713 on: November 18, 2014, 09:08:35 AM »

What attracts the North (Nord) to far-right morons? I guess the coast would be because of olds, but still..
You can compare with the unemployment map:

 

While you can definitely tie to the two maps together (and there's no denying that unemployment is the result/cause of obvious socioeconomic difficulties and deprivation), this is actually a very simplistic (and actually rather inaccurate) way of explaining something which is very complex. For way of example, I looked quickly at the correlation (at the cantonal level) between the 2014 FN vote and the 2009 unemployment rate (the most recent year I could map at the cantonal level - not 100% accurate, but the general geographic patterns haven't changed much) - the correlation coefficient was only 0.18 (and 0.14 in 2012). In 2014, the strongest correlation between unemployment and party vote was for the FG (0.35), EXG (0.28) and, in the negative direction, for the UDI-MoDem (-0.27) and UMP (-0.27).

If you want a variable which is able to explain a good deal of the FN vote, it is, since 2007, the ouvrier (manual worker) category. Since 2007, there has been a rather strong (but obviously not perfect) correlation of about 0.46 between the FN vote and the percentage of manual workers in the population. Prior to 2007, the correlation between the two was quite weak - 0.21 in 2002 and 0.14 in 1995; once you consider which kind of FN voters defected to Sarko in 2007 and the kind of FN voters which the FN attracted after 2010 it makes a lot of sense.

Of course, I'm not a big fan of explaining voting patterns by relying on a single variable because it's infinitely more complex than that. The FN electorate remains very composite, although united by certain shared concerns/views, and it attracts voters from different social horizons for different reasons. However, if you want to boil things down, factors such as socioeconomic deprivation, anti-immigration feelings (quite often mixed in with racism, but not always the case), anti-system sentiments, feelings of social exclusion (insiders vs. outsiders) and resentment are the most important for all parts of the FN electorate. I could obviously write a lot more, but I feel like I've written about this already somewhere else, and nobody cares about an effortpost.
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« Reply #714 on: June 18, 2015, 10:29:26 AM »

Cross-posted from Dark Atlas - some rejigged maps of old runoffs, now with 5% colour schemes!





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« Reply #715 on: May 20, 2016, 11:09:54 AM »
« Edited: June 27, 2016, 09:37:12 PM by Hash »



The most significant differences between Balladur's 1995 support and the map of Catholic religious practice are wealthy areas, with Balladur receiving some of his strongest numbers from wealthy urban and suburban areas. This explains, among other things, the pattern to Balladur's support in Ile-de-France, in Marseille, along the Mediterranean Riviera, in Rouen, in Lille (and the NPDC in general terms) and the Lyon urban area (and further adds to an existing centrist base in Haute-Savoie). Balladur was the more 'liberal' and Europhile candidate (especially compared to the populist Chirac of 1995, with his fracture sociale and whatnot), and he has snobbish mannerisms, which made him popular with wealthy right-wing voters (although Chirac still outperformed Balladur throughout the Paris region). This personality, as well as his record as the incumbent prime minister at the time, explains why Balladur performed particularly badly in low-income and even middle-income areas. The stark wealth gap in Balladur's support is most pronounced in the Paris region, with the major difference between places like Neuilly-sur-Seine (33.2%) and, say, Sarcelles (11%).

Balladur's poorer results in the Cantal and Haute-Loire, two fairly 'clerical' departments with a strong Christian-dem tradition (particularly Haute-Loire) is because of Chirac's extended regional favourite son vote, in la chiraquie.


A few things are to be expected:
-Bayrou's favourite son boost in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, +15.7% in his constituency and +10% in the other constituencies of the Béarn and Pau. A more modest gain in Bayonne (+3%) and actually a minor loss (-0.9%) in the Hendaye/Saint-Jean-de-Luz constituency, because of the affluent resort town of Saint-Jean-de-Luz.
-Chirac's favourite son effort in Corrèze and 'greater chiraquie' is erased, and Bayrou gained over 14% in Chirac's old Corrèze constituency. You can see how big Chirac's regional boost was, extending well into Haute-Vienne, Creuse, Cantal, Puy-de-Dôme, the Lot and parts of Dordogne and Haute-Loire even.
-In the southwest as a whole, the loss of the Chirac regional effect and the addition of the Bayrou regional effect in its stead, as well as Bayrou's strong performance with centre-left voters (Ipsos' 2007 exit poll says that Bayrou got 28% with those 'fairly left-wing' on self-IDed ideology; that wasn't asked in 1995, but obviously Balladur wouldn't have gotten anywhere close to that) in general that year explains his strong results over Balladur '95.
-Bayrou underperforming Balladur in wealthy areas. Sarkozy had a much stronger and natural appeal to strongly right-wing affluent voters. This effect is most visible in Paris and its suburbs, with Bayrou losing 14.5% on Balladur's result in Paris' 15th constituency (the north of the very rich 16th arrdt.), 10.6% in Sarkozy's constituency (in Neuilly itself, Sarkoland, Bayrou lost 20% on Balladur 95) and 10.2% in Paris' 14th constituency (the south of the 16th arrdt.). It is also visible in the Alpes-Maritimes and the Var, in Marseille, Lyon (the dark blue constituency covers the 6th arrdt., Lyon's wealthiest), suburban Lille, suburban Rouen and Calvados-4 (the constituency with Deauville and Trouville-sur-Mer).

Other things may be less obvious and are quite interesting:
-On account of Bayrou's strong support with moderate centre-left voters, he made big gains (compared to Balladur) in regions where you find more of these kind of people, who demographically can be imagined as well-educated, white-collar middle class urban and inner suburban people likely with public sector employment. Bayrou added up to 9% on Balladur's 1995 results in central Paris and about 6% in what I call the 'knowledge corridor' (a stretch of middle-class highly-education suburbs stretching from southern Paris to Orsay in the Essonne, with a high share of employment in research centres in Paris-Saclay); these are also places which have moved strongly to the left since 1995. You can find a similar effect, quite strongly pronounced, in suburban Brittany (Rennes/Brest, where Bayrou did very well), which is also an area which has shifted heavily leftwards since 1995; suburban Toulouse; suburban Poitiers; suburban Bordeaux; Grenoble and to a lesser extent suburban Nantes (although I was surprised that Bayrou didn't improve more in Nantes itself and Orvault). Suburban Strasbourg is too right-wing as it is to have been touched by this effect, while suburban Lille is politically polarized because of bigger wealth gaps (but the pattern does hold up there, with Bayrou gaining in Villeneuve-d'Ascq, a university town).
-Bayrou also did much better than Balladur in poorer left-voting parts of the Paris metro, like the 93: even if Bayrou's results remained poor there, he still did better than Balladur just because Bayrou got so many more left-wing voters on the whole.
-Bayrou lost ground from Balladur's results in rural conservative regions in general, perhaps especially in those rural Catholic/Christian dem-tradition areas of the inner west, Alsace-Lorraine, Lower Normandy and Seine-Maritime. I was particularly intrigued by the shifts in Brittany: Bayrou gained in places with a weaker Catholic/Christian dem-tradition (urban areas, leftist regions of central Brittany/Trégor) and lost in places with a strong Catholic/Christian dem-tradition (Léon, Vannetais, Vitré, Fougères) and wealthy coastal resorts (Golfe du Morbihan, Quiberon peninsula, Dinard/Saint-Malo). Pattern shows up very well in Mayenne, Manche, Orne, rural Calvados, Seine-Maritime.
-The losses in Maine-et-Loire and Sarthe also show another parallel trend - Bayrou lost in rural right-wing regions in general, even those without (or with a lesser) Catholic/Christian dem-tradition, because Balladur had an obviously stronger pull on conservative votes than Bayrou '07 did. This explains Alsace, Lorraine, Loiret, Eure-et-Loir, Franche-Comté, Burgundy etc. These regions likely had the more right-wing UDF-leaning voters, those who went over to the UMP when that started up after 2002. The one exception to this pattern is Vendée (and neighbouring Choletais in Maine-et-Loire) - where Bayrou did better than Balladur in the most Catholic part of that department, which also happens to have been the stronghold of Philippe de Villiers. De Villiers was on the ballot in 2007 as well, but did far worse than he did in 1995, so some of his favourite son votes in Vendée from 1995 went over to the other candidates, Bayrou among them. This checks out at the cantonal level, and likely explains the Choletais as well.
-Côte-d'Or is rather odd, although the differences between 1995 and 2007 are minor there and could very well just be statistical noise. Bayrou gained 1.2% in the 4th constituency, which had a prominent UDF député in 2002-2007 (and still has, François Sauvadet, first elected in 1993); he gained 2.2% in the 3rd, the more left-wing of the two Dijon seats.

A final interesting observation: the pattern of strongest Bayrou gains in 2007 from 1995 is strikingly similar to Hollande's 2012 first round map - sure, in good part it's because Hollande remade the old 'greater chiraquie' into a 'greater hollandie' around Corrèze (and also did very well in Brittany), but it can't be entirely coincidental because Hollande's strongest first round gains compared to Ségo in 2007 came from moderate centre-left people who had voted Bayrou in 2007. But, on the other hand, there's no correlation between the Hollande '12/Ségo '07 map and the above map.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #716 on: June 27, 2016, 12:24:14 PM »

I imagine this is perhaps the right place to ask. So I was looking for maps of the results of the 4th Republic's election, especially with like leading party per departement/constituency or just of the various parties. I have tried to find stuff online but it's pretty scarce (and the French Interior Ministry website sucks), and I've only found some information on Duverger's work on the 1956 election, and even that is not terribly exact, it seems.

So do you happen to have or know where I could find them? Smiley
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Hash
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« Reply #717 on: March 19, 2017, 09:50:36 PM »

Although I imagine everybody is more interested by MACRON and PANZERGIRL these days, France's electoral history is so much more interesting.

Here's a fun map comparing the two far-left candidates Arlette Laguiller and Olivier Besancenot in 2002 - Arlette won 5.7%, Besancenot won 4.2%, so a 1.47% advantage to the former. Mapped at the constituency level, it produces an interesting map



In broad general terms, Arlette's lead over Besancenot was highest in the more working-class areas, particularly old decaying industrial regions (some, but not all, former Communist strongholds). In contrast, Besancenot did better than Arlette or came closest to her in the less working-class, especially most bobo, places - as the blue (Besancenot beat Arlette) constituencies in Paris, Lyon, Grenoble, Nantes, Bordeaux, Toulouse should tell you...
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warandwar
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« Reply #718 on: March 19, 2017, 09:58:11 PM »

Although I imagine everybody is more interested by MACRON and PANZERGIRL these days, France's electoral history is so much more interesting.

Here's a fun map comparing the two far-left candidates Arlette Laguiller and Olivier Besancenot in 2002 - Arlette won 5.7%, Besancenot won 4.2%, so a 1.47% advantage to the former. Mapped at the constituency level, it produces an interesting map



In broad general terms, Arlette's lead over Besancenot was highest in the more working-class areas, particularly old decaying industrial regions (some, but not all, former Communist strongholds). In contrast, Besancenot did better than Arlette or came closest to her in the less working-class, especially most bobo, places - as the blue (Besancenot beat Arlette) constituencies in Paris, Lyon, Grenoble, Nantes, Bordeaux, Toulouse should tell you...
Great map!
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parochial boy
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« Reply #719 on: March 20, 2017, 04:52:24 AM »

Although I imagine everybody is more interested by MACRON and PANZERGIRL these days, France's electoral history is so much more interesting.

Here's a fun map comparing the two far-left candidates Arlette Laguiller and Olivier Besancenot in 2002 - Arlette won 5.7%, Besancenot won 4.2%, so a 1.47% advantage to the former. Mapped at the constituency level, it produces an interesting map



In broad general terms, Arlette's lead over Besancenot was highest in the more working-class areas, particularly old decaying industrial regions (some, but not all, former Communist strongholds). In contrast, Besancenot did better than Arlette or came closest to her in the less working-class, especially most bobo, places - as the blue (Besancenot beat Arlette) constituencies in Paris, Lyon, Grenoble, Nantes, Bordeaux, Toulouse should tell you...

Awesome! I'd never thought about it, but that is more or less exactly how you would expect the results between the two parties to look. Maybe a little bit surprised about Nanterre though, and that Besancenot did relatively worse in Ille-et-Villaine that the rest of Brittany.

Would love to see some more maps from that election Smiley
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Intell
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« Reply #720 on: March 20, 2017, 10:06:48 AM »
« Edited: March 20, 2017, 10:09:53 AM by Intell »

So how do native french working class vote, searching it up, there is articles of how, COMMUNISTS VOTE FOR TEH LE PEN. In 2012, did they vote for the socialists, with LePen in second place. What are working class areas in France and how do they vote?
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windjammer
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« Reply #721 on: March 20, 2017, 10:09:49 AM »

So how do native french working class vote, searching it up, there is articles of how, COMMUNISTS VOTE FOR TEH LE PEN. In 2012, did they vote for the socialists, with LePen in second place. What are working class areas in France?
They heavily vote for Le Pen
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Intell
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« Reply #722 on: March 20, 2017, 10:13:45 AM »
« Edited: March 20, 2017, 10:20:38 AM by Intell »

So how do native french working class vote, searching it up, there is articles of how, COMMUNISTS VOTE FOR TEH LE PEN. In 2012, did they vote for the socialists, with LePen in second place. What are working class areas in France?
They heavily vote for Le Pen

Really? That's sad then, any statistics on this regard, and some from 2012. I don't fully believe this, looking at maps from 2012. Though in 2017, I expect LePen to make huge gains.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #723 on: March 20, 2017, 10:37:44 AM »

So how do native french working class vote, searching it up, there is articles of how, COMMUNISTS VOTE FOR TEH LE PEN. In 2012, did they vote for the socialists, with LePen in second place. What are working class areas in France?
They heavily vote for Le Pen

Really? That's sad then, any statistics on this regard, and some from 2012. I don't fully believe this, looking at maps from 2012. Though in 2017, I expect LePen to make huge gains.

From Ipsos - Le Pen won 29% of Ouvriers in the first round, compared to 27% for Hollande.

Polling from 2017 suggests Le Pen is in the mid-40s with working class voters, with Melenchon in 2nd on about 17%; Macron and Hamon in third and fourth and Fillon on only 7%. See here
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #724 on: March 20, 2017, 01:25:47 PM »

So how do native french working class vote, searching it up, there is articles of how, COMMUNISTS VOTE FOR TEH LE PEN. In 2012, did they vote for the socialists, with LePen in second place. What are working class areas in France?
They heavily vote for Le Pen

Really? That's sad then, any statistics on this regard, and some from 2012. I don't fully believe this, looking at maps from 2012. Though in 2017, I expect LePen to make huge gains.

Traditional working-class strongholds (Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Ardennes, Meurthe-et-Moselle, Seine-Maritime) are still generally left-leaning (at least they were in 2012), but the FN does do very well there, yeah.
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