Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 31, 2014, 12:38:13 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: Hashemite)
| | |-+  French Elections 1848-2010
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 29 Print
Author Topic: French Elections 1848-2010  (Read 118910 times)
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31510
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #75 on: February 18, 2008, 12:32:08 pm »

Regional elections now.

2004 regional elections

Second Round



Larger version

By region now. I guess most of us have seen this awful map a million times.



Larger version

Runoffs in regional elections have a 10% and therefore in 2004, a vast majority of them were PS-UMP-FN runoffs. There is a 5% threshold in Corsica for the runoff, so that explains that. Interesting to note that the "left" actually won Corsica if you put PRG, CSD, PCF votes together. Oftentimes the media doesn't pay attention to locals in Corsica because they use a stupid system.

First Round



Larger version

Listening to the France2 post-first round broadcast was interesting because it confirmed that the left's tsunami was not expected to be as huge as that.

There should be a FN logo in Nord-Pas de Calais. Will probably fix that soon enough.

1998 regional elections

Overall by party



Larger version

The FN won in Haut-Rhin because of the division of the left and right IIRC.

Overall by Ideology



Larger version

Corsica held the 1998 elections in 1999 apparently. Once again, they have a weird system.

Leading Party by department



Larger version

Prior to 2004, regional elections used a one round-only system with 5% proportional representation by department. Note that where the Greenies, PCF, Radicals, MDC came out on top was because they were the left-wing party (no PS list). Reunion is not PCF but PCR, but I was too lazy to change that.

Overall regional presidencies



Larger version

A few of the right-wing majorities were obtained due to FN support.

CPNT seats



Larger version

Means in which regions they broke 5% in atleast one department.

LO-LCR-CAP seats



Larger version

Means in which regions they broke 5% in atleast one department.

1992 regional elections

Overall regional presidencies



Larger version

T'was a year before the 1993 RPR-UDF tsunami.

1986 regional elections

Overall regional presidencies



Larger version

Held on the same day as the 1986 legislative elections. Marked by the decline of the PCF and rise of the FN.
Logged

Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31510
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #76 on: May 13, 2008, 04:15:28 pm »

*blows dust off thread*

Updated 1997 with a breakdown of the left category:



Fixed some other errors, mostly in the deep and confusing world of DVD/DVG labels. Nothing major to add.

Fixed 1993, a few errors. DVG in this case means (generally) the MDR, a centre-right party that participated in the Rocard etc. governments and ran as "Presidential majority".



Also a Greenie map for 1993, where they did quite well (but underperformed from polls, one of which had them on 16%!). The total Greenies, split in 4/5 parties/groupings won around 10% but no seats (they weren't allied with the Socialists yet). Usual Greenie voting patterns that are hard to observe in post-1993 Greenie voting map because of strong votes where they were the candidate of the left and so forth. Strong in Alsace (Waechter or whatever his name is was still in the Green Party and a major leader), Rhone-Alpes, parts of Bretagne and Pays-de-la-Loire, and Paris/IdF.


Logged

Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31510
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #77 on: May 13, 2008, 04:24:12 pm »

2002 first round results by constituency



Saint-Josse won two constituencies in the Somme and Bayrou won his constituency. The Chirac favourite son factor in Correze and Cantal obviously. Quite hilarious that Le Pen didn't win the Dreux seat, but won the Nogent seat.

"Low" results for Chirac in the Neuilly, 16eme, Issy area; but mostly due to Le Pen doing quite well and the Madelin, Bayrou, Boutin etc. candidacies.

Might do 1995 and 1988 if there is any interest.



Some very, very old maps that are on my website but not posted here.



The Parti de l'Ordre was a bourgeois, right-wing conservative, monarchist party that originally supported Louis-Napoleon but fell out with him when he started acting authoritarian and wanting a second term (constitutionally impossible IIRC).



'Conservatives' are monarchists, most of the time.
Logged

PGSable
Full Member
***
Posts: 212
View Profile
« Reply #78 on: May 13, 2008, 06:01:34 pm »
Ignore

Why did Le Pen do so well in Aquitaine (Gironde, Lot-et-Garonne)?

The last two maps are as expected, but how did the conservatives fail to win a majority in Vendée?
Logged
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31510
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #79 on: May 13, 2008, 06:53:06 pm »

Why did Le Pen do so well in Aquitaine (Gironde, Lot-et-Garonne)?

Le Pen seems to do better in Gironde and Lot-et-Garonne than in the other departments of Aquitaine.

It's also stretching it a bit to say he did "so well" in Gironde and Lot-et-Garonne, Gironde-5 was very close (Chirac was only a few % behind). Saint-Josse and CPNT do well there too (14.7% in Gironde-5 in 2002). Gironde-11 was also close.

edit: The FN also had a seat(s) in Bordeaux until this year.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2008, 06:55:45 pm by Georges Marchais »Logged

Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31510
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #80 on: May 15, 2008, 04:58:39 pm »

Blast from the past.

2007 maps, basically to get them here to compare with the '95 maps I'm doing (hopefully Hue didn't win any constituencies, since I'm out of colours)

runoff



first round



Le Pen broke 20% in one constituency (Saint-Dizier, Haute-Marne). Buffet broke 9% in one constituency in the Nord. Royal got fourth in most rural Alsatian constituencies (where Bayrou did quite well, oc) and would've finished fourth if Strasbourg and the cities hadn't propped her up a bit. de Villiers prevented Sarkozy from breaking 30% in all but one of the Vendee constituencies. The CPNT voting block in Gironde, the Somme, and Manche collapsed totally from 2002 (a bit below 6% in the two constituencies Saint-Josse had won in 2002).
Royal also had a favourite-daughter effect in her department, she got higher scores than most Socialists usually do there IIRC.
Logged

Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38877
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #81 on: May 15, 2008, 11:10:12 pm »
Ignore

Where did you get the extra colors?
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31510
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #82 on: May 16, 2008, 06:46:11 am »

Where did you get the extra colors?

I stole UDF orange from Huckabee's colour scheme here, and I made the Le Pen crap-colours.
Logged

Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31510
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #83 on: May 25, 2008, 06:52:16 am »

Finally, the MPF 2007 map.



larger here


I'll comment later.
Logged

Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31510
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #84 on: June 01, 2008, 06:49:52 am »

These two maps are in the gallery already.





Logged

Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31510
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #85 on: July 01, 2008, 10:27:45 am »

Fun stuff!

Vote for Renouvin, 1974 royalist candidate

Logged

Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38877
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #86 on: July 01, 2008, 01:32:59 pm »
Ignore

Fun stuff!

Vote for Renouvin, 1974 royalist candidate



Does that map mean anything?
« Last Edit: July 02, 2008, 10:32:22 pm by ޒަހަރު) زَهَـرْ) »Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31510
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #87 on: July 28, 2008, 08:03:10 pm »

Fun stuff!

Vote for Renouvin, 1974 royalist candidate



Does that map mean anything?

Bretagne is very weird. But I suppose Renouvin's general leftiness might've turned some royalists off. The Royalists (the AR, which is a rightie eurosceptic party) did "best" (or least awful, a better term) in Bretagne in the 2004 EU election.
Logged

Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31510
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #88 on: July 28, 2008, 08:06:18 pm »

Now for the point of me coming here again.

Maps for the only religious survey data out there, the IFOP 2006 one.



A huge majority of those citing "Catholic" aren't regular church-goers, though.







Logged

Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16806


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #89 on: July 28, 2008, 08:09:57 pm »
Ignore


La Rochelle, how you have changed! (Although it is interesting to see the slight bulge in Protestantism in the area.)
Logged
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31510
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #90 on: July 28, 2008, 08:19:31 pm »

To add to the Catholic map, a map by region of those going to church atleast once a month (8.6% average).



And the averages for religions, excluding Corse.

Catholics 64
Protestant 2.1
Muslim 3
Jewish 0.6
No religion 27.6
Logged

Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16806


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #91 on: July 28, 2008, 10:01:10 pm »
Ignore

I there information on religious attendance by religion? I would assume Muslims have a high attendance rate, but is there a substantial difference between Catholics and the Protestant minority?
Logged
Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38877
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #92 on: July 29, 2008, 01:53:58 am »
Ignore

Why so many Muslims in Haut-Rhin?
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
Bro-mentum
tomm_86
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1174
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #93 on: July 29, 2008, 04:46:40 am »
Ignore

I can't see any of the new maps - and I reeaalllyyy want to! Sad
Logged

Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31510
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #94 on: July 29, 2008, 06:31:45 am »

I there information on religious attendance by religion? I would assume Muslims have a high attendance rate, but is there a substantial difference between Catholics and the Protestant minority?

IFOP only gave attendance data with Catholics.

Why so many Muslims in Haut-Rhin?

Peugeot auto workers from North Africa.

Logged

Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31510
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #95 on: July 29, 2008, 06:43:59 am »

Before I forget- any requests?
Logged

Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56867
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #96 on: July 29, 2008, 07:01:07 am »
Ignore

Surprised to see Lozere not being part of the, ahem, Greater Camisard Area. Though the Protestant towns there are tiny.

I will also have to repost that map on the Catholic v Anti-Clerical divide in the '60's that I made a while back.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31510
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #97 on: July 29, 2008, 07:02:14 am »

I will also have to repost that map on the Catholic v Anti-Clerical divide in the '60's that I made a while back.

Please do.
Logged

Hashemite
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31510
South Africa


Political Matrix
E: -1.29, S: -7.30

P P P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #98 on: August 01, 2008, 10:37:44 am »

Starting again with some more EU election maps (this time from 2004).

First up, MPF.



I can explain any patterns, if needed.

Next: RPF
Logged

Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56867
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #99 on: August 01, 2008, 11:14:43 am »
Ignore

These three maps are from a book on electoral geography published in the '70's. Any mistakes are thus not my fault:



And this is a map I found on teh interwebs:


Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 ... 29 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines