French Elections 1848-2010

[Vasall des Midas]

Grenelle was very much a proletarian quarter until the 50s at least.

[Hashemite]

Two new maps on the ever-fascinating and woefully underexploited topic of swings:





Remarks:
-Fascinating but not shocking how this is basically an extended Le Pen map of the 21st century...
-The red constituencies where Royal (47%) did better than Mitterrand (54%) are interesting
-Royal really, really sucked balls in Alsace
-Sarkozy did really crappy in the Viscount's constituency (+10% for the left)
-Royal did really well in Bayrou's turf in the runoff
-The Chiraquie blob is really like some huge hole in the second map
-Kind of interesting how the Vosges didn't swing as much to the right as the rest of the east. Any theories?

[Californian Tony]

Awesome stuff ! The trends are quite striking, even though I find the map key in the second map to be a bit too "dark". Anyways, the "moderate west"/"popular east" is very striking.

[Colbert]

verty impressive work !

[Colbert]

i've made a work for the 1902 election, but i can't post without have posted 20 messages

[Colbert]

I made a strong search about the results BY PARTIES on 1902 elections (results by seats bear me).

So they are :

FR    19,40 (Republican Fédération, right-wing of the opportunist-republicans)
PRR    17,12 (Republican-Radical Party, left-wing of the global républican party, and right-wing of the Radical Party)
ALP    16,00 (Popular Liberal Action, heirs of the defunct monarchist conservative Right)
PN    13,02 (miscellaneous nationalists, antisemitics, bonapartists, socialists-nationalists, etc.)
ARD    12,78 (Democratic Republican Alliance, left-wing of the opportunists republicans)
PRS    10,12 (Radical-Socialist Party, left-wing of the global republican party, and left-wing of the Radical Party)
PSF    7,87 (French Socialist Party, right-wing of the socialist party, lead by jaurès)
PSdF    2,49 (Socialist Parti of France, left-wing of the socialist party, lead by Jules Guesde)
royalistes    0,5
divers    0,7


the parties can be easy divided in 2 blocs : the ministerials and the "antiministerials". Ministerials are parties who support the defence of the parlementarian republic, and antiministerials, who are against.

FR is "antiministerial", but seriously, i think in case of very serious peril, FR would have contribuct to save the 3rd Republic



By family of thinking  :

32,18 % for the old opportunists republicans
27,24 % for radicals and radical-socialists
29,52 % for miscellaneous rightists (royalists, nationalists, conservatives)
10,36 % for the socialist party



all maps show france divided in 4 parts. More green the departement is, more the party is strong. More red the departement is, more the party is weay. (grey : no candidatures for the party)

Republican Federation


Radical Party


Rightist France (royalists, nationalists, conservatives)


rightist fight : royalists+conservative (grey-gold) vs nationalists+bonapartists (green)


Socialist Party (Guesde + jaurès)


old opportunist party (ARD+FR)


PRR+PRS


ministerials (red-pink) vs antiministerials (green)



moderate (PRR, PRS, FR, ARD) (green) vs extremists (PN, ALP, PSF, PSdF, royalists) (pink-red)


relative strong places for each party
red : PSF or PSdF
orange : PRS
yellow : PRR
light blue : ARD
blue : FR
kaki (don't know english name) : catholic conservatives
dark green : nationalists

[Sibboleth]

Khaki, so it's basically the same.

Welcome to the forum, btw.

[Hashemite]

The ALP was basically the party of the Ralliés, the less reactionary conservative Catholics who rallied the Republic in between the 1890s and 1901. The monarchists and ultra-reactionaries disliked them.

[Californian Tony]

Welcome to the forum, Colbert. And thank you for these interesting maps.

[Colbert]

i would try to make politico-genealogic trees. Could someone tell me how make that?

[Hashemite]

Epic map time



Magic of right-click does wonders.

[Tender Branson]

What's that strong conservative area in the lower middle south, surrounded by red ?

[Californian Tony]

[Hashemite]

What's that strong conservative area in the lower middle south, surrounded by red ?

You mean the Garonne valley?

[Tender Branson]

What's that strong conservative area in the lower middle south, surrounded by red ?

You mean the Garonne valley?

I think it is the dark blue area slightly to the north (east ?) of Toulouse.

[Hashemite]

What's that strong conservative area in the lower middle south, surrounded by red ?

You mean the Garonne valley?

I think it is the dark blue area slightly to the north (east ?) of Toulouse.

You're referring to two regions, seemingly.

1. The Garonne valley (Lot-et-Garonne, Tarn-et-Garonne, parts of Gironde). It is a low-lying valley area. In terms of agriculture, the area around Blaye and Libourne is wine country (though not of Medoc quality); the rest is largely fruits and polyculture. The whole area has attracted a lot of pieds-noirs and in general the population are largely lower middle-class employees or shopkeepers or light manufacturing independent working-class. The FN does really well here, and they're the type of right-wing FN electorate which Sarkozy did really well with in 2007. Some more clerical areas, but still largely dechristianized. If you go into the Tarn, you get similar demographics in a good number of the blue regions but the area around Mazamet is a Catholic working-class area.

2. The Aubrac/pays d'Olt, the Grands Causses, Margeride, the Saint-Flour plateau (Aveyron, Lozere, Cantal). It is the deepest blue area. Basically clerical Catholic isolated agricultural areas (largely cattle herding - milk and meat, the most right-wing of all farmers).

[Sibboleth]

Glorious map of glory is glorious.

[Hashemite]

Time for epic map 2



So, yeah, 9 candidates won at least one canton. Against 4 in 2007 and likely 6 in 1995.

[Californian Tony]

Saint-Josse won so many cantons ? ROFL.

[Senator MaxQue]

4 in 2007?
Who is the fourth one?

Antonio, Saint-Josse got like 20% in Somme, no?

[Hashemite]

Saint-Josse won so many cantons ? ROFL.

It's not unsurprising. In its heyday, CPNT had some very strong support in certain types of rural areas, like the Somme estuary or the Medoc. I should do a map of his results by canton.

[Californian Tony]

Yeah, but it's pretty rare to do so well with only 4% of the vote. Talk about extreme concentration of the vote...

Anyways, this map is absolutely awesome.

[Hashemite]

Yeah, but it's pretty rare to do so well with only 4% of the vote. Talk about extreme concentration of the vote...

Anyways, this map is absolutely awesome.

He won like 0.5% in every major city, so if you'd exclude all large cities from the calculations, he likely won nearly 10%.

[big bad fab]

Epic map indeed: you should print them on T-shirts, posters, napkins, etc...

With the results by arrondissements in Paris, it would be even greater: after all, it's the territory inside which municipal counsellors and, hence, general counsellors of Paris are elected.

But I'm a bit ashamed to dare to write this after so big a work and so wonderful a map you've done: it's almost Art ! No exaggeration in this !

[Californian Tony]

Epic map indeed: you should print them on T-shirts, posters, napkins, etc...

With the results by arrondissements in Paris, it would be even greater: after all, it's the territory inside which municipal counsellors and, hence, general counsellors of Paris are elected.

But I'm a bit ashamed to dare to write this after so big a work and so wonderful a map you've done: it's almost Art ! No exaggeration in this !

I second Fab's post.