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Author Topic: French election maps  (Read 177875 times)
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« Reply #725 on: March 20, 2017, 08:11:59 pm »

I've written (and read) a lot about the working-class vote in France and I don't feel like repeating all that, but there are a few things worth keeping in mind, very quickly:

Workers who do vote are pretty heavily for the FN nowadays. The important part of the sentence is italicized. Abstention is highest among workers, and reaches heights in second-order elections, like the 2015 regional elections when nearly 60% of workers did not turn out. Even if Panzergirl does extremely well with workers next month, overall turnout will be below average. This is an important point which too few people fully realize.

The "old PCF voters supporting Le Pen" is a bullshit lazy myth invented by some morons which has been debunked by basically all academic literature on the subject. The correlation between the PCF's decline and FN's rise in the 1980s is spurious, and the FN as it grew in the 1980s attracted very few former PCF voters.

I feel as if Nonna Mayer is still the one who hit it right on the head with the idea of the niniste (neither left nor right) FN blue-collar supporter: a disillusioned, apathetic and embittered working-class person who does not recognize him-herself in 'old' left-right terms and rejects these terms. More often than not, this kind of FN voter may have had left-wing parents, but him-herself no longer identifies with the left in any way. The niniste element is very well reflected by exit polls which ask for the respondent's ideology on a left-right scale, with the FN placing far ahead with nini voters but polling at most 10% with those who self-identify as left-wing. There is, to be sure, a small base of left-wing voters, presumably more blue-collar than average, who vote FN, but it is small in comparison to the niniste element.

It is worth keeping in mind that the working-class voter in 2017 isn't the same as the working-class voter in the 1980s. The oldest (say, 65), working-class voter came of age in the late 1960s or early 1970s, while even one in his 50s would have been socialized in the mid 1980s. The limited data available suggests a pretty important age divide within the working-class vote when it comes to the FN: it does best with younger and middle-aged voters, while the oldest working-class appear to have remained more loyal to the left, although many retired workers are also voting FN in large numbers now.

Always worth keeping in mind that the class cleavage was always weaker in France than in many other European countries, particularly Scandinavia. The working-class vote was never close to being homogeneous. It wasn't in the past, it isn't today.
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17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
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« Reply #726 on: March 20, 2017, 08:25:45 pm »
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Always worth keeping in mind that the class cleavage was always weaker in France than in many other European countries

Yes, this is actually the main thing to remember. There are quite a few countries in Europe where if you placed a well informed individual in a random town they could probably work out its voting patterns with something like a 95% certainty. France was never like that...
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« Reply #727 on: March 22, 2017, 03:57:40 pm »

An interesting map from 2002, for Christiane Taubira, at the time candidate of the PRG, perhaps most famous for being black and from the DOM-TOMs (namely French Guiana). She won 2.3% nationally, but benefited from a massive favourite-daughter vote in Guiana (53%) but also in the two French Caribbean territories of Guadeloupe (37%) and Martinique (28%). Her performance in metro France is very interesting as well:



In very broad terms, she had a clearly urban electorate in most of metro France, particularly in the greater Paris region. She performed relatively well (about 3%) in middle-class educated left-wing areas, as her pattern of support in the city of Lyon shows quite well. She also did relatively well in some old Radical areas in the southwest, like the Lot, Tarn-et-Garonne or Hautes-Pyrénées. However, the most important aspect of her support in metro France was her strong support among the Antillean population, which is predominantly concentrated in the Paris region, in the departments of Seine-Saint-Denis, Val-d'Oise and Val-de-Marne, which happened to be her three best departments in France besides Haute-Corse. Her best results came from low-income banlieues with the largest Antillean/black populations, like Bobigny (10%), Stains (8.3%), Sarcelles (8.5%), Garges-lès-Gonesse (8.7%), Créteil (7.2%), Évry (7.5%), Grigny (7.9%), Saint-Denis (7.8%) and so forth. This can be seen, to a much lesser extent, around Lyon where she also did well in low-income Vaulx-en-Velin and Vénissieux, which I presume have a small Antillean population. Her poor results in the quartiers nord of Marseille suggest she had little appeal to North African immigrants.

In Corsica, she wasn't supported by Émile Zuccarelli, at the time deputy/mayor of Bastia, who supported Chevènement, but she was supported by Zuccarelli's enemies, Paul Giacobbi (deputy/mayor of Venaco) and François Vendasi (senator/mayor of Furiani). Corsica being Corsica, she therefore won 21% in Venaco and 25% in Furiani; she also won first place, in one case with 65% (!), in various tiny villages in the mountains of Haute-Corse, which is hilarious. On the other hand, she got just 2.5% in Bastia.
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17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
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« Reply #728 on: March 22, 2017, 04:06:44 pm »
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Any idea why she scored quite well in Hautes-Alpes and in the Geneva commuter belt areas in Ain and Haute-Savoie? That area doesn't have a particularly large black population (although there is quite a large North African community), and it doesn't have any sort of leftist tradition, although there is quite a strong Christian-Democrat centrist one.

Also, one thing I have wondered about is how the hell Hollande managed to win in Cantal and Haute-Loire in 2012? I mean, you can say secularisation, but even so, there doesn't seem to be much, demographically speaking, that would give such traditionally right wing areas any reason to vote Hollande. Maybe Cantal being close enough to Correze to have a home-boy knock on, but I can't see that stretching as far as Haute-Loire
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« Reply #729 on: March 22, 2017, 04:33:22 pm »

Any idea why she scored quite well in Hautes-Alpes and in the Geneva commuter belt areas in Ain and Haute-Savoie? That area doesn't have a particularly large black population (although there is quite a large North African community), and it doesn't have any sort of leftist tradition, although there is quite a strong Christian-Democrat centrist one.

It's not leftist, but it fits with the pattern of her doing well in educated, socially liberal middle-class areas, of which the Geneva commuter area, particularly in the Ain, is a very good example of.

Hautes-Alpes is trickier; she also did quite well in the Diois in the Drôme, which always has a thing for minor left-wing candidates and parties and has a substantial population of leftist néo-ruraux. I'm unsure if the same holds true for the villages of the Hautes-Alpes, which are quite random in their politics.

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Also, one thing I have wondered about is how the hell Hollande managed to win in Cantal and Haute-Loire in 2012? I mean, you can say secularisation, but even so, there doesn't seem to be much, demographically speaking, that would give such traditionally right wing areas any reason to vote Hollande. Maybe Cantal being close enough to Correze to have a home-boy knock on, but I can't see that stretching as far as Haute-Loire

Secularization is the main underlying political trend in those departments and others, the other one being the very strong growth of the left in the urban areas, like Le Puy-en-Velay, Aurillac, Mende and even Saint-Flour. Sarkozy was also a very poor fit for the right in that general region, which is more Christian democratic or at least moderate right and who like their politicians to be very boring. Hollande, on the other hand, despite being a Socialist, was a good fit for the region, like Chirac had been. Hollande definitely did have a knock-on effect in Cantal, like Chirac had in 1995 and 2002.
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17:40   oakvale   the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible
17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
parochial boy
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« Reply #730 on: March 22, 2017, 04:53:46 pm »
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Brilliant thanks! From a purely biased local perspective I think it is quite interesting that the 74 has become a relatively weak department for the FN, when Le Pen won there in 2002. Even the deindustrialisimg towns in the arve valley arent too strong for Le Pen, as even these have benefited from the knock on effect of Greater geneva.

Could the same néoruraux effect also be behind the same bans of greeen strength that seems to run from Haites-Alpes througt to Aveyron? The various versions of EELV seem to regularly pick up random xommunes down that way
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« Reply #731 on: March 23, 2017, 11:22:56 am »
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Yeah, Western Hautes-Alpes, Northwestern Alpes-de-Haute-Provence, Drôme, Ardèche and Southwestern Isère are really good matches for semi-alternative green-ish or neo-left-ish candidates or alliances. Lots of neo-rurals growing organic crops, vines, or livestock there.
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IN NATE WE still TRUST?

I haven't seen anything pointing to a Brexit win at this point, when you factor in how a referendum actually works.

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parochial boy
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« Reply #732 on: March 25, 2017, 07:55:21 pm »
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Sorry for more questions, on an old map, but I was going through the old posts in this fascinating thread and, this one caught my attention



Saint-Malo (2007):



Is there any explanation for the left wing vote in Paramé? That is one of the last places in Brittany I would expect to vote for the PS
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