1980 electoral vote

[gorkay]

I was just looking at the maps for the 1980 election, and I was struck again by the fact that it would probably have been much, much closer if Anderson hadn't been in the race. If you add Anderson's vote totals to Carter's in the states where Reagan got less than 50% of the popular vote, Carter picks up fourteeen additional states with 158 more electoral votes. Add that to the 49 he actually got, and that gives him 207 to Reagan's 331-- still not nearly enough to win, but a lot more respectable, and a lot more reflective of the fact that Reagan only got a little over 50% of the PV.

Furthermore, Carter would have come within less than a percentage point of Reagan if you add Anderson's vote totals to his in four other states, two of them big ones-- Oregon (48.33% to 48.18%), Illinois (49.65% to 49.02%), Pennsylvania (49.59% to 48.90%), and Alabama (48.75% to 48.68%). That's 58 more electoral votes. And in Washington, Carter would also have been within shouting distance (49.66% to 47.94%)-- that's 9 more. So without Anderson, and with Carter doing just a little bit better in five states, that's a total of 274 electoral votes-- enough to win!

I realize, of course, that you can't assume everyone who voted for Anderson would've voted for Carter if Anderson hadn't been in the race. And I still think Reagan would have won. But it is fair to assume, I think, that Carter would have wound up getting the vast majority of the Anderson votes. So what turned out to be a big win in terms of PV and a major landslide in terms of EV could have been only a narrow Reagan victory-- and perhaps, if Carter had run a slightly better campaign and gotten a few breaks (such as a resolution to the hostage situation), he might have pulled it out.

[Verily]

First off, Anderson was a Republican, so, while he may have taken more from Carter than from Reagan, he certainly didn't take exclusively from Carter (maybe a 70-30 split). Secondly, most of Anderson's supporters were young, particularly college students and recent college graduates, people who probably wouldn't have voted at all if Anderson wasn't there to vote for.

Carter might have gained ground somewhat because Anderson's whole campaign was about attacking Carter, and removing that irritant would have improved his ratings, but the idea that Anderson's vote would have gone wholly to Carter is absurd.

Without foresight, I would have voted for Anderson or stayed home, FWIW.

[Erc]

Especially in places like Illinois, a lot of Anderson's support came from Republicans, I think.

[gorkay]

I don't disagree with anything you guys have said in reply to my original message. As I stated there, I know you can't say that all of Anderson's votes would have gone to Carter, and that even if they had, he still wouldn't have won. I just thought the numbers were interesting.

[auburntiger]

The peanut man did not stand a chance against the Great Communicator. The end.

[HardRCafé]

Anderson is to Reagan in 1980 as Perot is to Clinton in 1992.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

First off, Anderson was a Republican, so, while he may have taken more from Carter than from Reagan, he certainly didn't take exclusively from Carter (maybe a 70-30 split). Secondly, most of Anderson's supporters were young, particularly college students and recent college graduates, people who probably wouldn't have voted at all if Anderson wasn't there to vote for.

Carter might have gained ground somewhat because Anderson's whole campaign was about attacking Carter, and removing that irritant would have improved his ratings, but the idea that Anderson's vote would have gone wholly to Carter is absurd.

Without foresight, I would have voted for Anderson or stayed home, FWIW.

It's worth noting that one of Anderson's biggest early boosters in 1980 was the Doonsbury comic strip, which Anderson himself actually credited for getting him a good chunk of his name recognition.

Not exactly the best venue for siphoning Reagan voters.

[gorkay]

His appearance on "Saturday Night Live," which I doubt was the favorite program of many Reagan supporters, also gave him a boost.

[minionofmidas]

Anderson is to Reagan in 1980 as Perot is to Clinton in 1992.

No. There are parallels of course, but surgically removing Perot from the campaign a week before polling day wouldn't have changed the ec results much. Reagan's 1980 win wasn't a landslide in real life either, but it wouldn't have looked like one without Anderson.