should the Republicans give up on VA & NH??

[Smash255]

The GOP has a massive amount of seats to defend in 2008, a decent amount of them competitive seats.  Two of them in particular they have basically already lost.  Shaheen and Warner are both leading in the polls by landslides. and the Dems have both of those seats on lock.  So with everything the GOP has to defend would it make sense for them to just throw in the towel in the VA & NH Senate seat races and concentrate the $$ elsewhere or should they throw $$ at the race and just hope?

[© tweed]

not yet.  play status quo for a few months and make a decision come New Years.

of course, what exactly are they going to put the money into?  holding Colorado?  Nebraska?

[Smash255]

not yet.  play status quo for a few months and make a decision come New Years.

of course, what exactly are they going to put the money into?  holding Colorado?  Nebraska?

Maine, Oregon, Minnesota, or if things really get ugly North Carolina

[WalterMitty]

no.  va may be closer than the experts think.  NOTE TO BRTD: I STILL THINK WARNER WILL WIN.

nh is still winnable for sununu.  i like him a lot.  a great senator!  i hope the people of the nh have the good sense to send him back to washington.

[Frodo]

They should probably give up on New Hampshire.  And (if I were them) Republicans should definitely not yet give up on Virginia -the best Mark Warner can hope for (against either Davis or Gilmore) is a 55 to 45 victory, given the residual conservatism of the state.  More likely he would win a percentage just slightly short of that. 

[Lief 🗽]

They should spend money in their firewall states, because they're already at a huge cash disadvantage. States like MN and OR at the moment, then maybe falling back to states like AK, KY, ME and NC if those prove to be competitive.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I don't think so.  While Shaheen and Warner are very popular and are expected to cruise to victory, its definitely not a sure thing either place.  I think both states will go Democrat, but I would wait until maybe after the Presidential Primaries of each state to see who they nominate in both parties.  Then, if its still landsliding Democrat by, say, March, then pull out by April 1 and give them up for dead.

Lief is right, the Republicans are at a distinct cash disadvantage because they don't have Chuck Schumer.  Schumer has seemingly bottomless pockets.

[Smash255]

no.  va may be closer than the experts think.  NOTE TO BRTD: I STILL THINK WARNER WILL WIN.

nh is still winnable for sununu.  i like him a lot.  a great senator!  i hope the people of the nh have the good sense to send him back to washington.

How is NH winnable for Sununu when as an incumbent he is trailing by over 20 points??  his voting record is a brutal match for his state.

[WalterMitty]

no.  va may be closer than the experts think.  NOTE TO BRTD: I STILL THINK WARNER WILL WIN.

nh is still winnable for sununu.  i like him a lot.  a great senator!  i hope the people of the nh have the good sense to send him back to washington.

How is NH winnable for Sununu when as an incumbent he is trailing by over 20 points??  his voting record is a brutal match for his state.

a lot can happen between now and november 08

[Joe Republic]

a lot can happen between now and november 08

Walter, is this going to be another one of your predictions that you're really going to regret?

[WalterMitty]

a lot can happen between now and november 08

Walter, is this going to be another one of your predictions that you're really going to regret?

i havent made a prediction in the nh race yet.  at this time sununu certainly appears to be in trouble.

obviously the thing that is killing the republicans is iraq.  if something positive can be achieved in that mess between now and next november, the prospects for republicans will brighten dramatically.

[opebo]

...obviously the thing that is killing the republicans is iraq.  if something positive can be achieved in that mess between now and next november, the prospects for republicans will brighten dramatically.

I don't think that is so obvious, even though it is conventional wisdom.  Yes, people dislike the Iraq war, but I wouldn't get my hopes up for Republicans' situation to 'brighten dramatically' even in the unlikely event of Iraq improvement. 

I think what is being missed in the focus that media and political observers place on Iraq is the deep underlying importance of economic issues to voters at this time.  Eight years of income stagnation coupled with house price collapse, and now an incipient recession make the workers frightened, waltermitty.  I say that you can date the collapse in Bush's support more from the gas price increases than from anything to do with the war.

[TheresNoMoney]

Let's hope that Walter predicts a Sununu win.

[Democratic Hawk]

Look at it this way, if I was Rep. Tom Davis no way in hell would I opt for a Senate run against Warner. I'd seek re-election to VA-11 then opt for either a run for governor in 2009 or a run against Webb in 2012

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

They should probably give up on New Hampshire.  And (if I were them) Republicans should definitely not yet give up on Virginia -the best Mark Warner can hope for (against either Davis or Gilmore) is a 55 to 45 victory, given the residual conservatism of the state.  More likely he would win a percentage just slightly short of that. 

So no chance whatsoever of Warner having a Bayh-style Indiana (a somewhat more conservative and Republican state) margin of victory? Of course, Bayh's Senate opponents were somewhat bottom-drawer. Neither Davis or Gilmore fit that description

Dave

[they don't love you like i love you]

They should probably give up on New Hampshire.  And (if I were them) Republicans should definitely not yet give up on Virginia -the best Mark Warner can hope for (against either Davis or Gilmore) is a 55 to 45 victory, given the residual conservatism of the state.  More likely he would win a percentage just slightly short of that. 

So no chance whatsoever of Warner having a Bayh-style Indiana (a somewhat more conservative and Republican state) margin of victory? Of course, Bayh's Senate opponents were somewhat bottom-drawer. Neither Davis or Gilmore fit that description

Dave

Gilmore isn't bottom-drawer? LOL.

[Democratic Hawk]

Gilmore isn't bottom-drawer? LOL.

Compared to Davis, he undoubtedly is . Wasn't that much of a governor by most accounts but that doesn't mean to say he'd not poll respectably (low 40s)

Dave

[they don't love you like i love you]

Calling Gilmore a high quality candidate would be like calling Bob Taft one if he ran again in Ohio.

[Democratic Hawk]

Calling Gilmore a high quality candidate would be like calling Bob Taft one if he ran again in Ohio.

Believe me, I'd enjoy a Warner vs Gilmore race

Dave

[Verily]

Look at it this way, if I was Rep. Tom Davis no way in hell would I opt for a Senate run against Warner. I'd seek re-election to VA-11 then opt for either a run for governor in 2009 or a run against Webb in 2012

Dave

Same here. It just isn't worth jeopardizing his career in such a long-shot race. Gilmore, on the other hand... Well, he's a joke anyway.

[Smash255]

a lot can happen between now and november 08

Walter, is this going to be another one of your predictions that you're really going to regret?

i havent made a prediction in the nh race yet.  at this time sununu certainly appears to be in trouble.

obviously the thing that is killing the republicans is iraq.  if something positive can be achieved in that mess between now and next november, the prospects for republicans will brighten dramatically.

The chances of things in Iraq geting better are virtually impossible.  Also Sununu's problems while Iraq is one of them is much bigger than that.  He is a staunch social conservative in a state which is socially liberal.

[Frodo]

They should probably give up on New Hampshire.  And (if I were them) Republicans should definitely not yet give up on Virginia -the best Mark Warner can hope for (against either Davis or Gilmore) is a 55 to 45 victory, given the residual conservatism of the state.  More likely he would win a percentage just slightly short of that. 

So no chance whatsoever of Warner having a Bayh-style Indiana (a somewhat more conservative and Republican state) margin of victory? Of course, Bayh's Senate opponents were somewhat bottom-drawer. Neither Davis or Gilmore fit that description

Dave

I would rather make a conservative prediction at this stage in the race and be wrong, than to be overly optimistic and find that the other guy has won.  That's one reason why I made the above prediction. 

Also, please remember that Webb was running against an outed racist incumbent and good ol' boy George Allen, and still only barely won in a heavily Democratic year.  Mark Warner is a stronger candidate, granted, but then again he is likely to be running against opponents who have (so far) made none of Allen's mistakes.  So, all things being equal, I am betting that he will win, perhaps by a slightly larger margin than did Webb, but nothing like a washout.     

[bullmoose88]

New Hampshire? Probably cut loses there...

As for Virginia, Warner has a ton of momentum, but this still seems to be a GOP state in a national election, which make keep the GOP candidate in contention...Advantage dems, but still some hope for Rs.

[they don't love you like i love you]

The question in VA is who the candidate is. If Davis doesn't run and it ends up being Gilmore or some other such loser, then there's no point in fighting.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

They should give up on both, and not waste any money there.  Focus on Oregon, Minnesota, and Louisiana.