...obviously the thing that is killing the republicans is iraq. if something positive can be achieved in that mess between now and next november, the prospects for republicans will brighten dramatically.
I don't think that is so obvious, even though it is conventional wisdom. Yes, people dislike the Iraq war, but I wouldn't get my hopes up for Republicans' situation to 'brighten dramatically' even in the unlikely event of Iraq improvement.
I think what is being missed in the focus that media and political observers place on Iraq is the deep underlying importance of economic issues to voters at this time. Eight years of income stagnation coupled with house price collapse, and now an incipient recession make the workers frightened, waltermitty. I say that you can date the collapse in Bush's support more from the gas price increases than from anything to do with the war.
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