should the Republicans give up on VA & NH??

[Democratic Hawk]

Look at it this way, if I was Rep. Tom Davis no way in hell would I opt for a Senate run against Warner. I'd seek re-election to VA-11 then opt for either a run for governor in 2009 or a run against Webb in 2012

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

They should probably give up on New Hampshire.  And (if I were them) Republicans should definitely not yet give up on Virginia -the best Mark Warner can hope for (against either Davis or Gilmore) is a 55 to 45 victory, given the residual conservatism of the state.  More likely he would win a percentage just slightly short of that. 

So no chance whatsoever of Warner having a Bayh-style Indiana (a somewhat more conservative and Republican state) margin of victory? Of course, Bayh's Senate opponents were somewhat bottom-drawer. Neither Davis or Gilmore fit that description

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Gilmore isn't bottom-drawer? LOL.

Compared to Davis, he undoubtedly is . Wasn't that much of a governor by most accounts but that doesn't mean to say he'd not poll respectably (low 40s)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Calling Gilmore a high quality candidate would be like calling Bob Taft one if he ran again in Ohio.

Believe me, I'd enjoy a Warner vs Gilmore race

Dave