NE-Senate-GOP-Primary: Bruning internal poll shows Johanns ahead

[Tender Branson]

Attorney General Jon Bruning says a statewide poll conducted for his Senate campaign shows “a tight two-way race” between Bruning and Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns, a possible candidate for the GOP nomination.

And if the Republican primary for United States Senate were held today between Jon Bruning, Mike Johanns and Hal Daub, for whom would you vote? And would you DEFINITELY vote for or PROBABLY vote for ?

Definitely Mike Johanns - 21%
Probably Mike Johanns - 18%
COMBINED Mike Johanns - 39%

Definitely Jon Bruning - 16%
Probably Jon Bruning - 14%
COMBINED Jon Bruning - 30%

Definitely Hal Daub - 6%
Probably Hal Daub - 9%
COMBINED Hal Daub - 15%

Not sure/Refused - 16%

The poll, conducted September 10-12 by Dresner-Wickers and Associates, surveyed 400 residents registered Republican considered likely to vote in the 2008 Republican primary election. The margin of error was given as plus or minus 4 percent.

http://nebraska.statepaper.com/vnews/display.v/ART/2007/09/14/46eace5302cbb

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Anyone seriously know the odds of Johanns running here?  (It'd be a huge breath of relief for the GOP, in any case.)

[MarkWarner08]

Anyone seriously know the odds of Johanns running here?  (It'd be a huge breath of relief for the GOP, in any case.)

7:4. Seriously, my guess is he's waiting for Kerrey to announce.

[StateBoiler]

What happened to Tom Osborne politically?

[Alcon]

What happened to Tom Osborne politically?

I forget the details, but I think he pissed off farmers somehow.  Which is a bad idea for a congressman from NE-3 running an insurgent primary campaign against a respected incumbent.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Okay, so from what I've read thus far, Johanns seems likely to be a candidate here.  I have little doubt now that the GOP should hold this one.

[MarkWarner08]

Okay, so from what I've read thus far, Johanns seems likely to be a candidate here.  I have little doubt now that the GOP should hold this one.

You really think Kerrey vs. Johanns is slam dunk for the GOP?  Considering Nebraska, like the Dakotas, has a long tradition of sending Democrats to the Senate to tend to farm interests,  its unlikely this race will be an easy hold for the Republicans.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Okay, so from what I've read thus far, Johanns seems likely to be a candidate here.  I have little doubt now that the GOP should hold this one.

You really think Kerrey vs. Johanns is slam dunk for the GOP?  Considering Nebraska, like the Dakotas, has a long tradition of sending Democrats to the Senate to tend to farm interests,  its unlikely this race will be an easy hold for the Republicans.

Specifically, Nebraska has a long history of sending former Governors to the Senate.  I don't think a Kerrey/Johanns race would be a "slam dunk" for Republicans, but I do think Johanns would win it outside the margin of error.

Not to harp on the same things, but Kerrey hasn't even been living in the state since leaving the Senate.  And even considering that, his last re-election bid wasn't ultra-impressive: he only won it by 10% after outspending his opponent 5:2.

[MarkWarner08]

Okay, so from what I've read thus far, Johanns seems likely to be a candidate here.  I have little doubt now that the GOP should hold this one.

You really think Kerrey vs. Johanns is slam dunk for the GOP?  Considering Nebraska, like the Dakotas, has a long tradition of sending Democrats to the Senate to tend to farm interests,  its unlikely this race will be an easy hold for the Republicans.

Specifically, Nebraska has a long history of sending former Governors to the Senate.  I don't think a Kerrey/Johanns race would be a "slam dunk" for Republicans, but I do think Johanns would win it outside the margin of error.

Not to harp on the same things, but Kerrey hasn't even been living in the state since leaving the Senate.  And even considering that, his last re-election bid wasn't ultra-impressive: he only won it by 10% after outspending his opponent 5:2.

I agree that Johanns has an edge. But I'm not sure Johanns want to run in this climate.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

By the way, that brings up a good question: Who the heck was Jan Stoney?

[Alcon]

By the way, that brings up a good question: Who the heck was Jan Stoney?

I think she worked for a telco.  She was an "I own an Italian suit, so I might as well run for Senate" type of candidate.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

By the way, that brings up a good question: Who the heck was Jan Stoney?

I think she worked for a telco.  She was an "I own an Italian suit, so I might as well run for Senate" type of candidate.

Ah, nobody.  Okay, that's what I figured, but that can be somewhat hard to confirm.

[MarkWarner08]

By the way, that brings up a good question: Who the heck was Jan Stoney?

Here's a quote from a Time article :"It's the Gingrich gospel you hear in the words of voters like David Bywater, 26, a Nebraskan who is supporting Republican newcomer Jan Stoney against Senator Bob Kerrey. "'Seniority means you've been around too long."'
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,981737,00.html?promoid=googlep

I just realized that Kerrey's supposedly weak win was in 1994, the best GOP year in Congressional elections since the days of Ike. I'm no longer impressed by a GOPer getting 45% in such as good GOP year. Even powerful Senator Baucus barely won in '96 against a then no-name Republican (who later became Montana's Congressman).  The 90's were a tough time for Western Democrats.

[HardRCafé]

Q. What do Bob Kerrey and Bill Weld have in common?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Q. What do Bob Kerrey and Bill Weld have in common?

They both spent the last year trying to pick up women in New York City bars?

[HardRCafé]

Close enough!

[Adlai Stevenson]

by: Kyle Michaelis
Sat Sep 22, 2007 at 01:09:10 AM CDT

Attorney General Jon Bruning can no longer fuel his campaign for the U.S. Senate by attacking the soon-to-be-retired Chuck Hagel.  With the new dynamics of a Hagel-free Senate race, you might think Bruning would change styles and adopt a less divisive tone, but his response to Mike Johanns' resignation as Secretary of Agriculture suggests Bruning has grown to like the taste of blood and won't be giving up without a fight.

Bruning on Johanns' departure before completing the 2007 Farm Bill:

    "This was an opportunity to have someone fighting for our primary economic engine...Not only did [Johanns] leave early, he didn't do a particularly good job fighting for Nebraska while he was there." (Omaha World-Herald, 09/21/2007)


Having cornered himself by firebombing Hagel and earlier staking his claim with Tom Osborne against Gov. Dave Heineman in the 2006 gubernatorial primary, Bruning might have no choice but to remain committed to a win-at-any-cost strategy as a matter of survival.

Bruning is campaigning like a man who has seen the writing on the wall for his political career.  It seems he understands that he's burnt too many bridges with the entrenched Republican leadership, leaving the 2008 Senate race make-or-break time with Nebraska voters if he's ever going to fulfill his endless ambitions.

Of course, Bruning wasn't alone amongst Republicans taking issue with Johanns' resignation.  Hal Daub told the World-Herald, "I feel it's unfortunate that he has decided to quit his job as secretary of agriculture, a Cabinet post that could have been instrumental in securing the passage of a strong farm bill - legislation that is so desperately needed by our state's farmers, ranchers and agribusiness owners."

There's a world of difference, though, between the respective responses by Bruning and Daub.  Both might question the timing of Johanns' resignation, but only Bruning criticizes Johanns' performance during the two-and-a-half years he actually served as Secretary of Agriculture.

Jon Bruning says Mike Johanns "didn't do a particularly good job fighting for Nebraska."  If he hopes to win in 2008, that's a charge Bruning is going to have to make stick.  Not an easy task but not an impossible one either - if only Bruning were a better Attorney General, more competent at making his case.

http://newnebraska.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=166

[AndrewTX]

Bruning is an idiot. The only thing that he is going to do is lower Johanns margin of victory in the primary, and possibly make it a tougher race for Johanns in the general.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Seriously, though, are Bruning and Johanns different in any significant, real, ideological way?

[MarkWarner08]

Q. What do Bob Kerrey and Bill Weld have in common?

They both spent the last year trying to pick up women in New York City bars?

I thought you meant Republican Congressman Mike Ferguson, who tried to pick up underage girls at a Georgetown party. "Ferguson ... grabbed her by the arm and pulled her towards him" -- 2003 WP article.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Q. What do Bob Kerrey and Bill Weld have in common?

They both spent the last year trying to pick up women in New York City bars?

I thought you meant Republican Congressman Mike Ferguson, who tried to pick up underage girls at a Georgetown party. "Ferguson ... grabbed her by the arm and pulled her towards him" -- 2003 WP article.

Mike Ferguson is gonna lose that Nebraska Senate race 4 sure now 

(PS: I can point out three significant mistakes within the first sentence alone.)

[MarkWarner08]

Q. What do Bob Kerrey and Bill Weld have in common?

They both spent the last year trying to pick up women in New York City bars?

I thought you meant Republican Congressman Mike Ferguson, who tried to pick up underage girls at a Georgetown party. "Ferguson ... grabbed her by the arm and pulled her towards him" -- 2003 WP article.

Mike Ferguson is gonna lose that Nebraska Senate race 4 sure now 

(PS: I can point out three significant mistakes within the first sentence alone.)

Please correct my mistakes (if there are any) rather than obliquely referencing them. The students were under the drinking age, the quote is accurate, the incident indeed occurred in 2003, and the article was, in fact, in the venerable Washington Post, not some yellow journalism rag like the Murdoch owned NY Post.

On a different note, do you have any proof that Kerrey was cheating on his wife?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Q. What do Bob Kerrey and Bill Weld have in common?

They both spent the last year trying to pick up women in New York City bars?

I thought you meant Republican Congressman Mike Ferguson, who tried to pick up underage girls at a Georgetown party. "Ferguson ... grabbed her by the arm and pulled her towards him" -- 2003 WP article.

Mike Ferguson is gonna lose that Nebraska Senate race 4 sure now 

(PS: I can point out three significant mistakes within the first sentence alone.)

Please correct my mistakes (if there are any) rather than obliquely referencing them. The students were under the drinking age, the quote is accurate, the incident indeed occurred in 2003, and the article was, in fact, in the venerable Washington Post, not some yellow journalism rag like the Murdoch owned NY Post.

The incident you were referring to by quote involved (1) a 21-year-old; (2) happened at a bar; (3) needs the word "alleged;" and, I guess there's even a fourth mistake if you consider it has nothing to do with Nebraska.

On a different note, do you have any proof that Kerrey was cheating on his wife?

Nor do I have any proof that Bill Weld is picking up women in bars either.  It was a joke.

[MarkWarner08]

Q. What do Bob Kerrey and Bill Weld have in common?

They both spent the last year trying to pick up women in New York City bars?

I thought you meant Republican Congressman Mike Ferguson, who tried to pick up underage girls at a Georgetown party. "Ferguson ... grabbed her by the arm and pulled her towards him" -- 2003 WP article.

Mike Ferguson is gonna lose that Nebraska Senate race 4 sure now 

(PS: I can point out three significant mistakes within the first sentence alone.)

Please correct my mistakes (if there are any) rather than obliquely referencing them. The students were under the drinking age, the quote is accurate, the incident indeed occurred in 2003, and the article was, in fact, in the venerable Washington Post, not some yellow journalism rag like the Murdoch owned NY Post.

The incident you were referring to by quote involved (1) a 21-year-old; (2) happened at a bar; (3) needs the word "alleged;" and, I guess there's even a fourth mistake if you consider it has nothing to do with Nebraska.

On a different note, do you have any proof that Kerrey was cheating on his wife?

Nor do I have any proof that Bill Weld is picking up women in bars either.  It was a joke.

I'd heard her age was 20, mea culpa on that point.  The bar where the incident occurred is largely frequented by college students. While the wasn't a sign saying "No Lecherous Congressman Allowed," the Congressman's posse interrupted a group that was from a younger age bracket. How is it "alleged" when the Congressman acknowledged that he took off his pin when he saw this woman? Non sequitur  =/= mistake

Thanks for clarifying a joke.  Back to Nebraska news: NYT says Kerryis having second thoughts about a Senate bid. http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/09/21/kerrey-is-still-mulling-a-senate-run/

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Q. What do Bob Kerrey and Bill Weld have in common?

They both spent the last year trying to pick up women in New York City bars?

I thought you meant Republican Congressman Mike Ferguson, who tried to pick up underage girls at a Georgetown party. "Ferguson ... grabbed her by the arm and pulled her towards him" -- 2003 WP article.

Mike Ferguson is gonna lose that Nebraska Senate race 4 sure now 

(PS: I can point out three significant mistakes within the first sentence alone.)

Please correct my mistakes (if there are any) rather than obliquely referencing them. The students were under the drinking age, the quote is accurate, the incident indeed occurred in 2003, and the article was, in fact, in the venerable Washington Post, not some yellow journalism rag like the Murdoch owned NY Post.

The incident you were referring to by quote involved (1) a 21-year-old; (2) happened at a bar; (3) needs the word "alleged;" and, I guess there's even a fourth mistake if you consider it has nothing to do with Nebraska.

On a different note, do you have any proof that Kerrey was cheating on his wife?

Nor do I have any proof that Bill Weld is picking up women in bars either.  It was a joke.

I'd heard her age was 20, mea culpa on that point.  The bar where the incident occurred is largely frequented by college students. While the wasn't a sign saying "No Lecherous Congressman Allowed," the Congressman's posse interrupted a group that was from a younger age bracket. How is it "alleged" when the Congressman acknowledged that he took off his pin when he saw this woman? Non sequitur  =/= mistake

Thanks for clarifying a joke.  Back to Nebraska news: NYT says Kerryis having second thoughts about a Senate bid. http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/09/21/kerrey-is-still-mulling-a-senate-run/

Still, underaged is assumed to be "under 18" here in the states.

And I heard about Kerrey—can't blame him.  This thing just went from a slam dunk to an uphill climb with Johanns.