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Author Topic: Voting Trends By 2016  (Read 16215 times)
Siege40
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« on: July 28, 2004, 05:09:16 pm »
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I was thinking about voting patterns and what the future may hold. So, I've compiled what I think voting trends may look like in the not too distant future.

Democratic Locks:
HI, CA, NM, IL, NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA, VT, DC

Republican Locks:
ID MT WY UT ND SD NE KS OK LA MS AL AK GA SC KY ID

Soft Democratic: (States which tend to go democratic but tend to be a little closer than most)
AZ NV MN WI MI FL WA ME IA MD DE

Soft Republican:
CO, TN, NC, VA, WV, AR, NH, TX

Tossups: (Mainly cause I don't know where they're going)
OH, MO, PA

The reasons most of these states have moved around is that I believe that Latinos will increase rapidly in the population in the Southwestern states, (CA, NV, AZ, NM, TX) softening up Republican strength there. Also I think the Republicans will start to appeal to the mid-west states (OH, PA,) to try and commensate.

I'm sure there's a lot of holes in my thoughts, but I just wanted to through that out there.

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JohnFKennedy
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« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2004, 05:23:21 pm »
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The map for that looks as follows (obviously EV totals incorrect).

BTW, you are missing Indiana but I am assuming you think it trends Republican. Also missing is Oregon. Not sure how you think that will go but I have left it with the Democrats.





That look right or were my assumptions on Oregon and Indiana incorrect?
« Last Edit: July 28, 2004, 05:23:33 pm by Senator John F. Kennedy, PPT »Logged
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« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2004, 05:31:28 pm »
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I predict the map starts looking uglier as things become less polarized.



As a side note, this is a 269-269 tie by today's EVs.  It wasn't intentional.
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« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2004, 05:35:22 pm »
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Lunar, I personally think that Minnesota will stick with the Democrats.
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« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2004, 05:38:14 pm »
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With regards to PA, here's my take:

Pennsylvania will polarize between east and west bigtime.  If the modern Republican party gets too neo-conservative, there may be huge problems for them especially in the Southeast around Philly which were once very strong GOP areas.  I think Montgomery Co will be solid Dem with Bucks, Delaware, and Chester trending in that direction.  The Lehigh Valley has been slightly trending GOP, but I think it will reverse with the expansion of New York and Philadelphia.  The old "Reagan Democrat" will die out and newer, more educated Democrats will take over.  The same will trend for the Poconos area.  Pittsburgh and the West may even out.  The economy out there has to drastically get better for any real shift in power.  PA stays soft Dem and maybe even expands.  
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« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2004, 05:54:22 pm »
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Siege40
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« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2004, 06:06:12 pm »
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Thanks JFK. I wrote Indianna's intitials as ID instead of IN, oops. OR would be soft Dems and IN would be Rep. Lock. I think that the Neo-Conservative branch of the Republicans will be... suppressed if Bush loses or by 2008, leaving the McCain Republicans, more moderate Republicans, and that will get them the stability they want with the mid-west.

But I heard that the South was urbanizing which means Democratic influence, that's why VA and NC are softening up.

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« Reply #7 on: July 28, 2004, 06:21:26 pm »
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IMO, by 2016, the Northeast will be a Democratic lock.   The coastal South will become more liberal (minus South Carolina), while the inner southern states like Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia and Louisiana become more conserative.  The Upper Midwest will trend republican, Ohio and Pennsylvania become tossups, while Michigan and Illinois remain the democratic base in the midwest.  The Southwest and Pacific will become Democratic strongholds.  

In the end....by 2016

STRONG DEMOCRATIC STATES
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Rhode Island
New York
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
DC
Illinois
New Mexico
Arizona
Nevada
California
Washington
Hawaii

LEAN DEMOCRAT
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
Michigan
Minnesota
Colorado
Oregon

TOSSUPS
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Georgia
Iowa
Wisconsin

LEAN REPUBLICAN
West Virginia
South Carolina
Louisiana
Missouri

STRONG REPUBLICAN
Indiana
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Arkansas
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Nebraska
South Dakota
North Dakota
Utah
Wyoming
Idaho
Montana
Alaska

I think the future is rough for the republicans.  Once strong republican states are seeing much population growth and dem trends like NC, AZ, and VA....while the states in the Northeast losing population don't look like they're becoming republican strongholds anytime in the near future.  


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« Reply #8 on: July 28, 2004, 07:24:06 pm »
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« Reply #9 on: July 28, 2004, 08:11:54 pm »
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A lot of it depends on how neo-con the Republican party gets.  I can safely say eastern Pennsylvania including the staunchly GOP areas will not go for it and signs are alredy pointing to that.  If Bucks Co., PA had even a half decent Democratic party, PA-8 would easily flip. I can definititely see states like Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina become more Dem.  PA's Republican party is falling fast.
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Siege40
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« Reply #10 on: July 28, 2004, 08:14:07 pm »
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I agree, I think the Reps would do best to go Moderate. McCain style.

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« Reply #11 on: July 28, 2004, 08:20:34 pm »
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A lot of it depends on how neo-con the Republican party gets.  I can safely say eastern Pennsylvania including the staunchly GOP areas will not go for it and signs are alredy pointing to that.  If Bucks Co., PA had even a half decent Democratic party, PA-8 would easily flip. I can definititely see states like Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina become more Dem.  PA's Republican party is falling fast.

We're falling fast? We hold the Legislature, we hold both U.S. Senate seats, we have a majority in the Congressional delegation, we hold the state Attorney General's office, Rendell (D) has the weakest approval ratings out of the statewide office holders....and the PA GOP is the party falling fast?
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« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2004, 08:20:59 pm »
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IMO, by 2016, the Northeast will be a Democratic lock.   The coastal South will become more liberal (minus South Carolina), while the inner southern states like Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia and Louisiana become more conserative.  The Upper Midwest will trend republican, Ohio and Pennsylvania become tossups, while Michigan and Illinois remain the democratic base in the midwest.  The Southwest and Pacific will become Democratic strongholds.  

In the end....by 2016

STRONG DEMOCRATIC STATES
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Rhode Island
New York
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
DC
Illinois
New Mexico
Arizona
Nevada
California
Washington
Hawaii

LEAN DEMOCRAT
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
Michigan
Minnesota
Colorado
Oregon

TOSSUPS
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Georgia
Iowa
Wisconsin

LEAN REPUBLICAN
West Virginia
South Carolina
Louisiana
Missouri

STRONG REPUBLICAN
Indiana
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Arkansas
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Nebraska
South Dakota
North Dakota
Utah
Wyoming
Idaho
Montana
Alaska

I think the future is rough for the republicans.  Once strong republican states are seeing much population growth and dem trends like NC, AZ, and VA....while the states in the Northeast losing population don't look like they're becoming republican strongholds anytime in the near future.  




Wishful thinking.. not going to happen...
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« Reply #13 on: July 28, 2004, 08:41:24 pm »
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A lot of it depends on how neo-con the Republican party gets.  I can safely say eastern Pennsylvania including the staunchly GOP areas will not go for it and signs are alredy pointing to that.  If Bucks Co., PA had even a half decent Democratic party, PA-8 would easily flip. I can definititely see states like Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina become more Dem.  PA's Republican party is falling fast.

We're falling fast? We hold the Legislature, we hold both U.S. Senate seats, we have a majority in the Congressional delegation, we hold the state Attorney General's office, Rendell (D) has the weakest approval ratings out of the statewide office holders....and the PA GOP is the party falling fast?

The Asher/Fawkes machine is falling like a deck of cards.  Both are crooks and people know it.  Boyle is gonna beat Kenney I can feel it!  Melissa Brown will have to do better than Section 8 to get elected this time.  
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« Reply #14 on: July 28, 2004, 08:45:28 pm »
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A lot of it depends on how neo-con the Republican party gets.  I can safely say eastern Pennsylvania including the staunchly GOP areas will not go for it and signs are alredy pointing to that.  If Bucks Co., PA had even a half decent Democratic party, PA-8 would easily flip. I can definititely see states like Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina become more Dem.  PA's Republican party is falling fast.

We're falling fast? We hold the Legislature, we hold both U.S. Senate seats, we have a majority in the Congressional delegation, we hold the state Attorney General's office, Rendell (D) has the weakest approval ratings out of the statewide office holders....and the PA GOP is the party falling fast?

The Asher/Fawkes machine is falling like a deck of cards.  Both are crooks and people know it.  Boyle is gonna beat Kenney I can feel it!  Melissa Brown will have to do better than Section 8 to get elected this time.  

Boyle beating Kenney? Give me a break. Kenney has been re-elected by time and time again (by sizable margins, too). Every two years we hear how Kenney will lose. He is the state Rep. targeted by the Dems. And after all their attempts, they fail. And this year will be no different.
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« Reply #15 on: July 28, 2004, 08:56:36 pm »
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A lot of it depends on how neo-con the Republican party gets.  I can safely say eastern Pennsylvania including the staunchly GOP areas will not go for it and signs are alredy pointing to that.  If Bucks Co., PA had even a half decent Democratic party, PA-8 would easily flip. I can definititely see states like Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina become more Dem.  PA's Republican party is falling fast.

We're falling fast? We hold the Legislature, we hold both U.S. Senate seats, we have a majority in the Congressional delegation, we hold the state Attorney General's office, Rendell (D) has the weakest approval ratings out of the statewide office holders....and the PA GOP is the party falling fast?

The Asher/Fawkes machine is falling like a deck of cards.  Both are crooks and people know it.  Boyle is gonna beat Kenney I can feel it!  Melissa Brown will have to do better than Section 8 to get elected this time.  

Boyle beating Kenney? Give me a break. Kenney has been re-elected by time and time again (by sizable margins, too). Every two years we hear how Kenney will lose. He is the state Rep. targeted by the Dems. And after all their attempts, they fail. And this year will be no different.

Joe Nicoletti and youself are not the only opinions in the Northeast.  Answering for the @ssholes up top will be a tough problem for the GOP even in NE Philly.  Had the Dems picked a more moderate and prominent candidate, I could see Speaker Perzel's seat in jeopardy as well.  Right now, the only GOPer in the Northeast that's 100% squeaky clean is John Taylor.  The others are as rotten as Street!  Good riddance!  
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« Reply #16 on: July 28, 2004, 09:09:31 pm »
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A lot of it depends on how neo-con the Republican party gets.  I can safely say eastern Pennsylvania including the staunchly GOP areas will not go for it and signs are alredy pointing to that.  If Bucks Co., PA had even a half decent Democratic party, PA-8 would easily flip. I can definititely see states like Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina become more Dem.  PA's Republican party is falling fast.

We're falling fast? We hold the Legislature, we hold both U.S. Senate seats, we have a majority in the Congressional delegation, we hold the state Attorney General's office, Rendell (D) has the weakest approval ratings out of the statewide office holders....and the PA GOP is the party falling fast?

The Asher/Fawkes machine is falling like a deck of cards.  Both are crooks and people know it.  Boyle is gonna beat Kenney I can feel it!  Melissa Brown will have to do better than Section 8 to get elected this time.  

Boyle beating Kenney? Give me a break. Kenney has been re-elected by time and time again (by sizable margins, too). Every two years we hear how Kenney will lose. He is the state Rep. targeted by the Dems. And after all their attempts, they fail. And this year will be no different.

Joe Nicoletti and youself are not the only opinions in the Northeast.  Answering for the @ssholes up top will be a tough problem for the GOP even in NE Philly.  Had the Dems picked a more moderate and prominent candidate, I could see Speaker Perzel's seat in jeopardy as well.  Right now, the only GOPer in the Northeast that's 100% squeaky clean is John Taylor.  The others are as rotten as Street!  Good riddance!  

Perzel has a safe GOP district now. Nobody will beat him. And as for the "only GOPer in the Northeast that's 100% squeaky clean is John Taylor. The others are as rotten as Street." you must be kidding. What's your problem with Denny O'Brien? The Dems of PA169th House district really like O'Brien. That might be why they chose not to run candidates against him. How can you compare George Kenney to John Street? You have some strong opinions Handzus but most are pretty ridiculous.
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« Reply #17 on: July 28, 2004, 09:11:43 pm »
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I forgot about O'Brien.. sorry.  Kenney is Perzel's lackey and Perzel himself is an f-ing thief!  
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« Reply #18 on: July 28, 2004, 09:16:39 pm »
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Perzel himself is an f-ing thief!  

Give me a break. How is he a thief? This man is a very dedicated community leader. You Dems might not like him but to call him a thief...don't you think that's alittle extreme?
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« Reply #19 on: July 28, 2004, 09:21:40 pm »
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Perzel himself is an f-ing thief!  

Give me a break. How is he a thief? This man is a very dedicated community leader. You Dems might not like him but to call him a thief...don't you think that's alittle extreme?

Hell no!  I will not apologize for that statement.  He has his wife and his in-laws raking it in from a failing charter school, he is trying to privatize everything so he can get a hefty payday.  I hope the residents of PA-172 can see thrugh his pork-barreling garbage.  The guy looks up to pond scum.
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« Reply #20 on: July 28, 2004, 09:31:25 pm »
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my take:

« Last Edit: July 28, 2004, 10:08:59 pm by RightWingNut »Logged

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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #21 on: July 28, 2004, 09:40:16 pm »
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everyone think Michigan will stay lean democrat
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Siege40
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« Reply #22 on: July 28, 2004, 10:39:53 pm »
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my take:



That's really interesting RightWingNut, I agree with most of what you got there, minus AZ, TX, FL and maybe VA.

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« Reply #23 on: July 28, 2004, 10:48:01 pm »
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wishful thinking I know.
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Siege40
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« Reply #24 on: July 28, 2004, 10:52:11 pm »
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wishful thinking I know.

That looks so wierd.... I don't think that could ever reasonably happen.

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Senator - Nov 5, 2004 - Mar 1, 2005
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