Voting Trends By 2016

[Siege40]

I was thinking about voting patterns and what the future may hold. So, I've compiled what I think voting trends may look like in the not too distant future.

Democratic Locks:
HI, CA, NM, IL, NY, NJ, CT, RI, MA, VT, DC

Republican Locks:
ID MT WY UT ND SD NE KS OK LA MS AL AK GA SC KY ID

Soft Democratic: (States which tend to go democratic but tend to be a little closer than most)
AZ NV MN WI MI FL WA ME IA MD DE

Soft Republican:
CO, TN, NC, VA, WV, AR, NH, TX

Tossups: (Mainly cause I don't know where they're going)
OH, MO, PA

The reasons most of these states have moved around is that I believe that Latinos will increase rapidly in the population in the Southwestern states, (CA, NV, AZ, NM, TX) softening up Republican strength there. Also I think the Republicans will start to appeal to the mid-west states (OH, PA,) to try and commensate.

I'm sure there's a lot of holes in my thoughts, but I just wanted to through that out there.

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[Siege40]

Thanks JFK. I wrote Indianna's intitials as ID instead of IN, oops. OR would be soft Dems and IN would be Rep. Lock. I think that the Neo-Conservative branch of the Republicans will be... suppressed if Bush loses or by 2008, leaving the McCain Republicans, more moderate Republicans, and that will get them the stability they want with the mid-west.

But I heard that the South was urbanizing which means Democratic influence, that's why VA and NC are softening up.

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[Siege40]

I agree, I think the Reps would do best to go Moderate. McCain style.

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[Siege40]

my take:

That's really interesting RightWingNut, I agree with most of what you got there, minus AZ, TX, FL and maybe VA.

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[Siege40]

wishful thinking I know.

That looks so wierd.... I don't think that could ever reasonably happen.

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[Siege40]

By 2016 I would hope the Libertarians would control a state. We'll see.

What state do you think they could win?

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[Siege40]

My prediction: All your predictions are wrong

Any thoughts Al on what the map might look like?

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[Siege40]

My prediction: All your predictions are wrong

Any thoughts Al on what the map might look like?

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Aha... but then I'd be breaking my own rule...

Come on Al, just a bit of fun.

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[Siege40]

My prediction: All your predictions are wrong

Any thoughts Al on what the map might look like?

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Aha... but then I'd be breaking my own rule...

Come on Al, just a bit of fun.

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Hmmm... problem with trends is that they change so often...
A wild guess:

NM, AZ, NV et al don't trend Dem because the GOP puts a lot of work into appealing to Hispanic voters. There is then a backlash amoung poorer whites further east.

By further East do you mean the Atlantic Coast, or all of the South and maybe the Great Plains too?

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