MN-03: Ramstead Retiring

[TheresNoMoney]

Jim Ramstead in MN-03 is retiring. This is a swing district trending Dem that Bush won by about 1.5%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kind of surprising, but AWESOME!

Here's to hoping the GOP nominates a real far right winger. This isn't MN-06 and Michele Bachmann won't play here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Should be a Republican hold unless they pick an awful candidate.

[Conan]

Whats Patrick Kennedy going to do without his sponsor?

[Conan]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,297100,00.html

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Should be a Republican hold unless they pick an awful candidate.

Picking an awful candidate is the type of thing the MN GOP has a pretty big habit of doing lately though.

[TheresNoMoney]

Should be a Republican hold unless they pick an awful candidate.

I don't know why you say that. Bush won this district by 1.5% in 2004, and the country has shifted Democratic a few points since then.

[Verily]

Likely to be a very marginal district, really depending on the candidates and which way the Presidential campaign goes. The district has a partisanship of D+0. (That is, with a swing to 50-50 from the average 2004 numbers, Kerry won by less than 0.5%.) Al is totally off-base on this one.

[MarkWarner08]

Jim Ramstead in MN-03 is retiring. This is a swing district trending Dem that Bush won by about 1.5%.

OH-15:  99% Democratic pickup. Why the nea total certitude? For now, the GOP has NO candidate! All of the top state leg people have said no, Petro said no, that football guy said no, and there are no wealthy self-funders on the horizon.  This race is over before it started.  Pretty sad for the GOP, especially since Pryce would likely have won again.

AZ-01: A close swing district that now an open seat like CO-07, AZ-08, and IA-01 were in '06. We all remember how those races turned out -- double digit Democratic wins.

VA-11: Trending D and the strongest GOP candidate is now running for the Senate. As long as Dems don't nominate Leslie Bryne, the GOP will lose this seat.

IL-14: 50/50 chance Dems win
IL-18 5% chance Dems win
CA-52: 0%
MS-03: 0%

MN-03 is the kind of suburban/exurban open House district that the GOP lost in 2006. The NRCC's only hope here is that the Republicans nominate someone of the stature and fundraising ability of a Peter Roskam and the Democrats have an internecine battle. In short,  depending on DCCC recruiting, this is probably another Democratic pickup.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

There are quite a few DFL state legislators in the district who'd make good candidates, most fairly moderate. The GOP has some good candidates and some wingnuts.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Whoever is elected, they will be a moderate.  The DFL would do themselves a favor by nominating a moderate.  This district would have been competitive long ago if Ramstad had been further to the right.  It's a great chance for a Democratic pickup, though.

[Democratic Hawk]

Jim Ramstead in MN-03 is retiring. This is a swing district trending Dem that Bush won by about 1.5%.

Apparently Bush carried it 51 - 48 according to CQPolitics

Dave

[Verily]

Jim Ramstead in MN-03 is retiring. This is a swing district trending Dem that Bush won by about 1.5%.

Apparently Bush carried it 51 - 48 according to CQPolitics

Dave

50.95% to 48.05%, to be precise

Which means I was wrong; it's R+0, not D+0.

[TheresNoMoney]

Apparently Bush carried it 51 - 48 according to CQPolitics

Either way, the country has shifted a few points to the Democrats since then and there's no reason we can't/shouldn't win.

[Democratic Hawk]

Whoever is elected, they will be a moderate.  The DFL would do themselves a favor by nominating a moderate.  This district would have been competitive long ago if Ramstad had been further to the right.  It's a great chance for a Democratic pickup, though.

Well, Ramstead seems moderate enough if his 2006 NJ ratings are anything to go by:

Economically liberal: 52 / Socially centrist: 50 / Foreign liberal: 55

Overall: Liberal 52.3 / Conservative 47.7

Dave

[ilikeverin]

Oh, good

I hope he feels bad for denying me for the House Page Program, because he's had to send me a few "congratulations on your academic achievement" letters recently   Well, he seems to sign all the letters personally, at least, and he is pretty moderate.  I hope the Dems nominate someone I can campaign for.

[MarkWarner08]

Oh, good

I hope he feels bad for denying me for the House Page Program, because he's had to send me a few "congratulations on your academic achievement" letters recently   Well, he seems to sign all the letters personally, at least, and he is pretty moderate.  I hope the Dems nominate someone I can campaign for.

I'm sorry to hear that he rejected you from the Page program.  Nice to see that your realize the best revenge is living well.

Part of my job as a congressional intern was to sign the congressman's signature on letters. The one time the congressman showed up to the office, he bragged about his franking privileges. Overall, I enjoyed writing letters to constituents and fielding calls from people worried about blackhawk helicopters and the formation of the North American Union.

[Lief 🗽]

Part of my job as a congressional intern was to sign the congressman's signature on letters.

You can forge a Congressman's signature? Nice.

[MarkWarner08]

Part of my job as a congressional intern was to sign the congressman's signature on letters.

You can forge a Congressman's signature? Nice.

If you work for a Congressman, yes. It's common practice in Congressional offices.

[Joe Biden 2020]

According to www.politics1.com, centrist-Republican Jim Ramstad of Minnesota Congressional District 3 is retiring at the end of this term, citing being "burned out.. tired."  Bush only carried MN-03 by 3 points, and in a Democratic-leaning state, this could very easily go Democrat and go for the Democratic nominee for President, almost ensuring that Minnesota stays blue in 2008.  There wasn't much of a chance for the Republicans to pick up Minnesota anyway, but this puts the icing on the cake for the Democrats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

MN-03 is the kind of suburban/exurban open House district that the GOP lost in 2006.

Not so. The Republicans, generally, didn't do so badly in districts like this one in 2006 (which is why I'm sceptical of a Democrat gain). Though maybe voting patterns in 2008 will be different.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Jim Ramstad is a very popular fiscally conservative, socially moderate Republican in a traditionally Republican district that is moving to the left.

This district has not been competitive for quite some time, but considering the state legislature gains in this CD for the DFL makes me think that the DFL has a real shot at picking up the seat. 

It is just kind of sad to see him go.  To refer to himself as part of a dying breed says a lot.  I think the Republicans sold themselves out for an immediate profit with their "Rovian" tactics, and while it paid huge in some places, places like Ramstad's district will likely fall by the wayside.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong independent candidate.

[MarkWarner08]

MN-03 is the kind of suburban/exurban open House district that the GOP lost in 2006.

Not so. The Republicans, generally, didn't do so badly in districts like this one in 2006 (which is why I'm sceptical of a Democrat gain). Though maybe voting patterns in 2008 will be different.

Not so. 16 of the 31 Democratic House pickups were in suburban districts. In fact, the Democrats carried the suburban House vote by a margin of 50-48 in 2006.

Here are some examples of suburban/exurban districts the Democratic won in 2006: Arizona's 5th; California's 11th; Colorado's 7th; Florida's 22nd; New York's 19th; Pennsylvania's 4th, 7th and 8th; and Texas's 22nd.  Only two of those seats (CA-11 and TX-22) were scandal pick ups.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not so. 16 of the 31 Democratic House pickups were in suburban districts. In fact, the Democrats carried the suburban House vote by a margin of 50-48 in 2006.

Note that I didn't mention anything about suburban/exurban or anyothersortofurban. I wrote "this sort of district"; affluent, white collar, well-educated, owner-occupied, and mostly made up of older (by American standards...) middle suburbs.

Demographically, MN-3 is very like IL-6, though a bit more bourgeois*.

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Most, but not all, of those districts are very different to this one.

*No, I'm not a Marxist, but people would get the wrong end of the stick if I used the term "middle class"; which o/c means something completely different in the States than it does over here.

[MarkWarner08]

Not so. 16 of the 31 Democratic House pickups were in suburban districts. In fact, the Democrats carried the suburban House vote by a margin of 50-48 in 2006.

Note that I didn't mention anything about suburban/exurban or anyothersortofurban. I wrote "this sort of district"; affluent, white collar, well-educated, owner-occupied, and mostly made up of older (by American standards...) middle suburbs.

Demographically, MN-3 is very like IL-6, though a bit more bourgeois*.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Most, but not all, of those districts are very different to this one.

*No, I'm not a Marxist, but people would get the wrong end of the stick if I used the term "middle class"; which o/c means something completely different in the States than it does over here.

The Democrats won 49% of the vote in IL-06 despite running a political neophyte who didn't even live in the district. That was also after a nasty primary and residual bad blood between the two losing primary candidates and the eventual victor. MN-03 is more like PA-06 and WA-08, two rich districts that have eluded the Democrats in recent years. One major difference: MN-03 will be open in a Democratic friendly year, WA-08 was open in a neutral year and PA-06 was open in election year after 9/11.

Considering the closeness of the contests in those two other districts, I expect the political atmospherics, barring the possibility the Dems nominate a candidate who makes a catastrophic Patricia Madrid style gaffe, to push the Democratic nominee to victory.