Fianna Fail to 'organise in Northern Ireland' - possible merger with SDLP

[afleitch]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6998543.stm

'It is the first time in the party's 81-year history that efforts have been made to mobilise on an all-Ireland basis. Mr Ahern said Foreign Affairs Minister Dermot Ahern would chair a committee to implement the move. "This moves reflects the dramatic changes we have seen across the island," the party leader said.

Dermot Ahern said the party did not intend to contest any seats in a Westminster election. "We wouldn't be interested in going to the House of Commons as a political party.
That is for others to do," he said.  "We feel we should have representation in Northern Ireland as a political party."

Earlier on Monday, the SDLP refused to rule out a possible merger with Fianna Fail and party leader Mark Durkan later welcomed the decision to organise in the north.

However, Ulster Unionist leader Sir Reg Empey said the decision was "unwise and unhelpful". "The last thing we need is another abstentionist party organising here," Sir Reg said.'

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Interesting, especially a possible merger. Where could Fianna Fail be successful? Will Fine Gael follow?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does Gerry Fitt's ghost get to say "I told you so" yet?

[Јas]

The Fianna Fáil party conference, which is ongoing, have been considering this. It seems that there is a willingness to involve themselves in the North and that there are 3 options.

• Seek membership, but hold off on contesting elections for the time being
• Seek membership and contest local and Assembly elections
• Try and merge with the SDLP

The first option is a fairly pointless move, at least in the short term. I can't see too many people seeking to sign up to a party which has a policy of not contesting any elections.

The second option - running as FF in NI, would be very difficult. I really don't see how they will be able to get a foothold. It's all very well dealing with the DUP and SF from this side of the border, but contesting elections there could greatly change the dynamics of the North-South relationship. FF could only appeal to nationalist voters and they would hurt the SDLP more than SF. In the medium term, if they did well, I'd imagine they'd still be only a 2nd tier size party, á la the Alliance, and might drag the SDLP down to around that size as well. FF should also have seen the difficulties SF have in maintaining the facade of being an all-Ireland party.

The final option also has difficulties, but for different reasons. The SDLP can almost always depend on the backing of the Irish Government (whosoever be the parties involved) both sharing the voice of moderate nationalism. By becoming FF in the North, they risk alienating support from FG and Labour. The SDLP also have much stronger social democratic pronciples than FF and elements of their membership are as committed to those ideals just as much as the nationalist goals. The move could splinter the party.

All in all, though FF would like the mantle on 'all-Ireland party', I think they'd be better off not heading up North at all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The move could splinter the party.

Only a could?

[Јas]

The move could splinter the party.

Only a could?

I tend to try and be cautious in my words when predicting the future. I'd be very surprised if at the very least a small but significant number left to either form another party or simply ran as independents. Worst case scenario (from FF's POV) could see the SDLP split pretty much down the middle.

[StateBoiler]

I imagine Ian Paisley is pissed off?

(well, at least more than usual)

[Јas]

I imagine Ian Paisley is pissed off?

(well, at least more than usual)

The only DUP comments I've heard were those of Jeffrey Donaldson, who had no difficulty with it at all - indeed he commented on how this could only fragment the nationalist vote to the aid of unionists, which of course is true.

Reg Empey (UUP leader) called it "throwing a grenade" into Ulster politics. It's a rare occasion when I agree with the DUP over the UUP, but such as it seems to be...

Interesting, especially a possible merger. Where could Fianna Fail be successful? Will Fine Gael follow?

Just realised that I missed your last question. In short, no. I don't see FG making any move up north, there simply isn't any demand for it. The key reason why FF are moving is because their membership is more nationalist (or at least thinks they're more nationalist) and want the tag of being an all-Ireland party - something they seem to resent hearing Sinn Féin carp on about.

I don't see FG going North, but I would put one caveat to that. If the FF do merge with the SDLP, it's quite possible the SDLP could split in many pieces. The largest group would likely stay with FF. A significant bloc may fight on as a Labour party of some sort (likely with strong links with the Irish Labour party). The remainder could disappear altogether or see a series of independents emerge or maybe also form a FG group (probably big farmers and more middle class Catholics most vociforously opposed to SF).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It's hard to pinpoint who exactly in NI would be Fianna Fail's base - If anything this would lean to the SDLP going to the right and thus benefiting Sinn Fein.

I'd say for now this a non-starter at least as far as Assembly\Westminster elections go; might see them organize locally though.. Especially in Down, Fermanagh and South Armagh.

[Јas]

Ógra FF (i.e. the youth branch of FF) have begun actively recruiting on campuses in the North. Reportedly, they outdid Sinn Féin by about 4 to 1 in the University of Ulster (Magee) campus - where the SDLP didn't show. Not that student politics is a real indication of anything, of course, but nevertheless it indicates that their may be a constituency for FF to work with in the North.

Also, while on student politics in the North, SDLP Youth have decided to adopt a new logo. I mention it simply because it seems quite clear that those behind the change will be unlikely to fit in snuggly with Fianna Fáil - this based on the logo itself and the associated press release which clearly sets out their pitch as firmly on the political left - whilest making no mention of nationalism at all.

FTR, the following is the new SDLP Youth logo, followed by the actual SDLP symbol.