TX-Senate-Research2000: Cornyn (R) leads Noriega (D) by 16

[Sam Spade]

Sounds about right. Cornyn will lose only inner city Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and the Rio Grande Valley.

Cornyn comes from San Antonio and in 2002 he carried Bexar County 51%-47%. 

Given that he barely won the county, he'll probably lose the inner city. He's  a Republican, after all.

The inner city has never been Republican-friendly to put it mildly.  His bump in Bexar County was probably about 3%-4% in 2002 (best guess).

Also, a Democratic candidate would also win El Paso, the Beaumont-Port Arthur area, inner-city Austin (obviously) and if he's particularly strong, some parts of east Texas.  Democrats would do ok in the inner suburbs of Dallas and Houston (and probably Austin as well).

[Kushahontas]

i think north, central and east texas are often underestimated. there are counties that voted for george bush over a massachusetts liberal by 4 or 5 votes near the panhandle. east texas holds a lot of democrats who voted for bush over a liberal gay communist pansy from massachussets.

i think cornyn would lose in inner-city dallas, probably houston, san antonio, austin, and the rio grande valley with cameron county being the only tossup there but he'd probably lose it anyway.

it'd be close in san antone but i think he could lose that as well. also, el paso, beaumont-port arthur, some dallas suburbs and maybe we could pull off some surprises in east texas and sparsely populated northern texas closer to the panhandle.

[minionofmidas]

John Edwards beat an incumbent in North Carolina in 1998, and I'd consider NC Dixie.

Refresh my memory:  who were the Presidential nominees in 1998?

Walter Mitty (R) and Jay Fern (D).