I'm amazed at how a (R) seat in a VERY red state could even be thought of as competitive. Anyway, for what it's worth, My 2008 senate prediction is this:
Dem gains: VA, NH, CO, MN
GOP gains: LA
Dems: 52-46-2
Way too early to tell. As of now, I'd guess the Dems have an edge in VA, NH, and CO. Franken would probably lose to Coleman. LA, despite the population changes, is not a done deal for the GOP. John Kennedy is not the GOP's top challenger and Landreiu has a knack for surviving in Presidential years (1996). Of course, who could forget the GOP's failed 2002 "Operation: Icing on the Cake."
Honestly, Louisiana on a whole is tons more Republican now than it was in 1996, not even counting the fact that a hurricane displaced a solid chunk of its Democratic electorate.
I agree with you about Lousiana's demographic shift since 1996. The one issue here is dod the Republicans have a candidate that can beat Mary Landreiu. Her last two opponent were sub-par and nearly beat her, but they still lost.
John Kennedy has been loathed by the GOP for years and now he expects to become the party's standardbearer against Landreiu? If the Democrat can focus this race on parochial issues and her general effectiveness, the Republicans will once again blow a chance to pick up this seat.
Did I mention the NRSC will be defending at least seven of their own party's seats? The NRSC's job is incumbent protection first, then offense. Kennedy will likely get pushed to the side when Gordon Smith, Susan Collins, and Norm Coleman come calling next October.
