Nebraska Senate 2008: Johanns Will Run for Hagel's Senate Seat

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Glad I bailed on Dem-to-win-NE when I did.  This should be a GOP hold now.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm increasingly thinking that Kerrey will not run. 

Sure, Bruning is throwing punches at Mike Johanns but thats more likely to hurt him than Johanns.  Upper plains states have a lower tolerance for political nastiness than a lot of other states (unfortunately that didn't stop Thune, but it certainly was close!).

I'm thinking the seat is likely to stay GOP at this point.

Not that Democrats should give up on Nebraska...  its just that they need not feel so bad about their less than even prospects there given the other opportunities that are availing themselves this cycle.

If Kerrey announces that he will not run for the Senate, as I agree is looking more likely, I think the DSCC will attempt to woo either Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey or Scott Kleeb in that order. 

Kerrey loses to Johanns by about 10;
Fahey loses to Johanns by about 15–20;
Kleeb loses to Johanns by about 20–30.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm amazed at how a (R) seat in a VERY red state could even be thought of as competitive. Anyway, for what it's worth, My 2008 senate prediction is this:

Dem gains: VA, NH, CO, MN
GOP gains: LA

Dems: 52-46-2

Way too early to tell. As of now, I'd guess the Dems have an edge in VA, NH, and CO. Franken would probably lose to Coleman. LA, despite the population changes, is not a done deal for the GOP. John Kennedy is not the GOP's top challenger and Landreiu has a knack for surviving in Presidential years (1996). Of course, who could forget the GOP's failed 2002 "Operation: Icing on the Cake."

Honestly, Louisiana on a whole is tons more Republican now than it was in 1996, not even counting the fact that a hurricane displaced a solid chunk of its Democratic electorate.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm amazed at how a (R) seat in a VERY red state could even be thought of as competitive. Anyway, for what it's worth, My 2008 senate prediction is this:

Dem gains: VA, NH, CO, MN
GOP gains: LA

Dems: 52-46-2

Way too early to tell. As of now, I'd guess the Dems have an edge in VA, NH, and CO. Franken would probably lose to Coleman. LA, despite the population changes, is not a done deal for the GOP. John Kennedy is not the GOP's top challenger and Landreiu has a knack for surviving in Presidential years (1996). Of course, who could forget the GOP's failed 2002 "Operation: Icing on the Cake."

Honestly, Louisiana on a whole is tons more Republican now than it was in 1996, not even counting the fact that a hurricane displaced a solid chunk of its Democratic electorate.

I agree with you about Lousiana's demographic shift since 1996. The one issue here is dod the Republicans have a candidate that can beat Mary Landreiu. Her last two opponent were sub-par and nearly beat her, but they still lost.

John Kennedy has been loathed by the GOP for years and now he expects to become the party's standardbearer against Landreiu? If the Democrat can focus this race on parochial issues and her general effectiveness, the Republicans will once again blow a chance to pick up this seat.

Did I mention the NRSC will be defending at least seven of their own party's seats? The NRSC's job is incumbent protection first, then offense. Kennedy will likely get pushed to the side when Gordon Smith, Susan Collins, and Norm Coleman come calling next October.

The NRSC can't afford to be totally focused on incumbent protection, and I think they know this.  It's almost guaranteed that they'll lose a seat somewhere, so they need to play offense somewhere to try and pick something up.

Besides, very few of the races are "incumbent" protection—seats like CO, VA, and NE are open seats without an incumbent.  Defending Sununu surely tops the list, and I'm sure Smith and Coleman will need help when the election heats up (Collins won't be getting much help unless Allen closes the gap, which is much easier said than done).

Other than that, picking up LA holds the same priority as holding CO.

And with respect to Louisiana, I doubt there's going to be much vitrol directed at John Kennedy for being a Democrat once—I mean, seriously, a majority of the current GOP base used to be Democrats at one point, and he wasn't objectionable enough to even draw a GOP opponent in 2003.