3rd Party from the right

[MAS117]

I was just thinking about this, but what is the chances of a third party candidacy funded by the religious right for a Huckabee or Brownback ticket if someone like Rudy gets the GOP nom?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I was just thinking about this, but what is the chances of a third party candidacy funded by the religious right for a Huckabee or Brownback ticket if someone like Rudy gets the GOP nom?

Not especially significant.  If the religious right can't organize enough to stop Rudy from getting the GOP nomination, then they're not going to be able to organize enough to mount a serious evangelical third party bid.

And neither Brownback nor Huckabee seem suicidal enough (or egotistical enough) to become the villian of a supermajority of Republicans nationwide.

[MODU]

It wouldn't be much, since Rudy's non-traditional GOP positions are small compared to the candidate as a whole.  They would rather vote for Rudy as President and then a more conservative Rep/Sen than put up a third candidate that has no chance of winning, and resulting in the loss of any chance of winning the White House.

[Governor PiT]

Brownback is open borders and boring.

[7,052,770]

it would get much traction, but it might help throw the tossup states to Hillary.

[Verily]

The only right-wing splinter I could see at this point would be a radical xenophobic bid launched by Tancredo in association with the Constitution Party if McCain won the nomination, and he wouldn't win more than 2-3%.

[Paul/Tancredo 2008]

I was just thinking about this, but what is the chances of a third party candidacy funded by the religious right for a Huckabee or Brownback ticket if someone like Rudy gets the GOP nom?

There is one: The Constitution Party.
But they won't nominate Brownback or Huckabee. It would Ron Paul, Tom Tancredo, Alan Keyes, or maybe Duncan Hunter. However with the exception of Keyes none of these men expressed any interest in the CP or running third-party.

[Brandon H]

Being Keyes, Tancredo, and Hunter all support the war, I don't see any of them getting the support of the CP. But if Rudy gets the GOP Nomination, the CP will top its 2004 vote.

I'm curious if RP wins the Republican nomination (unlikely but not impossible) will the pro-war faction run under a third party or as an independent.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Alan Keyes as a Constitution Party candidate: guaranteed to get almost 10,000 votes nationwide!

[MODU]

Alan Keyes as a Constitution Party candidate: guaranteed to get almost 10,000 votes nationwide!

hahaha . . . you're giving them too much credit. 

[Governor PiT]

Jerome Corsi

[Brandon H]

Corsi declined the CP nomination already.

[Paul/Tancredo 2008]

Being Keyes, Tancredo, and Hunter all support the war, I don't see any of them getting the support of the CP. But if Rudy gets the GOP Nomination, the CP will top its 2004 vote.

I'm curious if RP wins the Republican nomination (unlikely but not impossible) will the pro-war faction run under a third party or as an independent.

True but don't forget Congressman Tancredo came as the top "Second Choice Candidate" in the CP's online Presidential Preference Poll.

[StateBoiler]

I could see Tancredo with the CP and a significant increase in votes for them from their 144k in 2004, if one of Romney, Giuliani, or McCain got the Republican nod, each for their own reasons.

I doubt Tancredo will take the leap though.

[Verily]

I could see Tancredo with the CP and a significant increase in votes for them from their 144k in 2004, if one of Romney, Giuliani, or McCain got the Republican nod, each for their own reasons.

I doubt Tancredo will take the leap though.

I can only see Tancredo making the leap over immigration, which means McCain. Giuliani's social views would disgruntle a lot of Republican voters, as would Romney's Mormonism, but ultimately they don't inspire nearly as much vitriol as amnesty.

[StateBoiler]

I could see Tancredo with the CP and a significant increase in votes for them from their 144k in 2004, if one of Romney, Giuliani, or McCain got the Republican nod, each for their own reasons.

I doubt Tancredo will take the leap though.

I can only see Tancredo making the leap over immigration, which means McCain. Giuliani's social views would disgruntle a lot of Republican voters, as would Romney's Mormonism, but ultimately they don't inspire nearly as much vitriol as amnesty.

You don't think some conservative voters in very safe (key word: very) Republican states will vote for a Constitution candidate instead of a pro-choice Giuliani just to make a political point? We're ultimately talking just a couple percent, but that's what Nader got from the left in disgust over the Third Way in 2000.

[Verily]

I could see Tancredo with the CP and a significant increase in votes for them from their 144k in 2004, if one of Romney, Giuliani, or McCain got the Republican nod, each for their own reasons.

I doubt Tancredo will take the leap though.

I can only see Tancredo making the leap over immigration, which means McCain. Giuliani's social views would disgruntle a lot of Republican voters, as would Romney's Mormonism, but ultimately they don't inspire nearly as much vitriol as amnesty.

You don't think some conservative voters in very safe (key word: very) Republican states will vote for a Constitution candidate instead of a pro-choice Giuliani just to make a political point? We're ultimately talking just a couple percent, but that's what Nader got from the left in disgust over the Third Way in 2000.

Unless there's a coordinated movement, the Constitution Party won't even be on the ballot in more than ~30 states. They might manage 1% nationwide running a nobody, but they'd need a well-known figure (like Nader in 2000) to do better than that.

[StateBoiler]

I could see Tancredo with the CP and a significant increase in votes for them from their 144k in 2004, if one of Romney, Giuliani, or McCain got the Republican nod, each for their own reasons.

I doubt Tancredo will take the leap though.

I can only see Tancredo making the leap over immigration, which means McCain. Giuliani's social views would disgruntle a lot of Republican voters, as would Romney's Mormonism, but ultimately they don't inspire nearly as much vitriol as amnesty.

You don't think some conservative voters in very safe (key word: very) Republican states will vote for a Constitution candidate instead of a pro-choice Giuliani just to make a political point? We're ultimately talking just a couple percent, but that's what Nader got from the left in disgust over the Third Way in 2000.

Maybe, but 2% in Utah and Alabama amounts to 0% nationwide.

Utah, Alabama, the non-Las Vegas part of Nevada, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, parts of Georgia, parts of Tennessee, parts of North Carolina, Kentucky, South Carolina, Indiana, parts of Pennsylvania, parts of Virginia, West Virginia, and parts of Ohio.

Giuliani is a terrible fit for those areas. Not only will turnout go down as most will see "no difference" between Giuliani and a Democrat and see no point to voting, but the Republican share of vote will go down a bit in favor of the CP, how much depends on the stature of the CP candidate and his charisma in his message.

There are a lot of Republican voters that if you asked what every Republican in the party should be and stand for, Giuliani would not fit their definition.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I think it has very good chances - in fact, if he gets the nomination, I'm pretty certain that some 3rd party opposition will be mounted.  They won't win any states (maybe some Bible Belt states), but they'll put up more of a fight than Perot.

If the question's asking what are the chances they'll win - then that's 0% - I wasn't quite sure what it was asking.

[Brandon H]

Chuck Baldwin (CP's 2004 VP Candidate) wrote an article on Rudy today.

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[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

I'd like it if the right got split up.

[NDN]

I could see Tancredo with the CP and a significant increase in votes for them from their 144k in 2004, if one of Romney, Giuliani, or McCain got the Republican nod, each for their own reasons.

I doubt Tancredo will take the leap though.

I can only see Tancredo making the leap over immigration, which means McCain. Giuliani's social views would disgruntle a lot of Republican voters, as would Romney's Mormonism, but ultimately they don't inspire nearly as much vitriol as amnesty.

Considering all three support amnesty, I don't think it would really matter which of the three "front runners" (at least according to the media) the GOP selected. Any of them could trigger a 3rd Party campaign. Giuliani would be especially likely to though, IMO.