House race updates: NV-03, NJ-07, and IN-05

[MarkWarner08]

Some good news for Democrats:

In NV-03, the DCCC has finally lured Clark County Chief Deputy District Attorney Robert Daskas into the race. This seat is pehaps the most competitively drawn House district in America. With Jon Porter narrowly ekeing out a win in '06 over a first time candidate and the Democratic voter edge rising, expect a close race here. If the Democrats are lucky, Daskas could prove to be the next Mike Arcuri or Brad Ellsworth -- a politically and physically attractive sheriff with macho bona fides that bring independent white male voters back to the Democrats.


NJ-07: Linda Stender's back. Stender nearly toppled formerly entrenched GOP rising star Mike Ferguson. This race will again be close, but Ferguson starts with the early edge.

I include IN-05 to spotlight this odd poll. Does anyone know why Dan Burton is polling the GOP primary?


    An American Viewpoint poll; conducted 5/21-22; surveyed 500
likely GOP primary voters; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 9/13).
Tested: Rep. Dan Burton (R) and physician John McGoff (R)

Primary Election Matchup
D. Burton   71%
J. McGoff   15

[zorkpolitics]

Stender was tagged as a "big Spender" in 2006.  This year she co-authored a bill committing NJ to reduce Green House gasses by 80%.   The state public Utilities Board estimates it will cost rte payers $7 Billion in higher electric bills just to raise solar energy to 2%.  One could make an interesting case that Stender's bill could cost NJ residents 40X more or $280 Billion in electric bills, making her the biggest spender ever!
But I doubt Ferguson will even figure that out.

Ferguson has been running scared since last Nov., he has the third lowest Republican party unity score, voting with the Democrats 39% of the time.  That will likely piss off the base voters (he voted for the despicable Union Card Check Program, the so called Union Thug Program).  But nothing he does is likely to win any Democratic voters, and though there are registered independents, in this state, they are mostly Democrats.

[MarkWarner08]

Stender was tagged as a "big Spender" in 2006.  This year she co-authored a bill committing NJ to reduce Green House gasses by 80%.   The state public Utilities Board estimates it will cost rte payers $7 Billion in higher electric bills just to raise solar energy to 2%.  One could make an interesting case that Stender's bill could cost NJ residents 40X more or $280 Billion in electric bills, making her the biggest spender ever!
But I doubt Ferguson will even figure that out.

Ferguson has been running scared since last Nov., he has the third lowest Republican party unity score, voting with the Democrats 39% of the time.  That will likely piss off the base voters (he voted for the despicable Union Card Check Program, the so called Union Thug Program).  But nothing he does is likely to win any Democratic voters, and though there are registered independents, in this state, they are mostly Democrats.

Good point about his declining party unity score.  His union vote was probably a calculated move to spare him the wrath of the AFL-CIO. Those Stender the Spender signs were a clever idea.

[Gabu]

Stender was tagged as a "big Spender" in 2006.

Yes, in a brilliant attack by her opponent that not only particularly work, but also gave her free publicity funded by her opponent.

[MarkWarner08]

Stender was tagged as a "big Spender" in 2006.

Yes, in a brilliant attack by her opponent that not only particularly work, but also gave her free publicity funded by her opponent.

It also created a negative association of her name to higher taxes. Taxes are such a potent issue in New Jersey that Jim Florio's tax increase nearly cost Bill Bradley his senate seat and gave the GOP a strong majority in the legislature for much of the 90's. I'd say introducing Ms. Stender to the voters as a big spender didn't help her campaign, even if it raised her name ID.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Stender was tagged as a "big Spender" in 2006.

Yes, in a brilliant attack by her opponent that not only particularly work, but also gave her free publicity funded by her opponent.

If you think Ferguson's work labeling "Stender the Spender" actually helped her, then you're nuts.  It's what saved Ferguson.

Jeb Bradley should have gone negative on Shea-Porter when things started getting tight nationally.  It would have saved him, too.

Stender will come close again in 2008, but Ferguson was most vulnerable in 2006 after the Foley affair made his "bar room allegations" relevant news again.  And if Giuliani makes it onto the ballot, this one shouldn't even be on the radar—Ferguson's near loss can be pegged to a marked decrease in solid GOP areas like Hunterdon County that just won't happen if "favorite son" Giuliani is the nominee.

[MarkWarner08]

Stender was tagged as a "big Spender" in 2006.

Yes, in a brilliant attack by her opponent that not only particularly work, but also gave her free publicity funded by her opponent.

If you think Ferguson's work labeling "Stender the Spender" actually helped her, then you're nuts.  It's what saved Ferguson.

Jeb Bradley should have gone negative on Shea-Porter when things started getting tight nationally.  It would have saved him, too.

Stender will come close again in 2008, but Ferguson was most vulnerable in 2006 after the Foley affair made his "bar room allegations" relevant news again.  And if Giuliani makes it onto the ballot, this one shouldn't even be on the radar—Ferguson's near loss can be pegged to a marked decrease in solid GOP areas like Hunterdon County that just won't happen if "favorite son" Giuliani is the nominee.

Good to see we both agree. I think this race and WA-08 will be like CT-04 and PA-06 in 2006, two well-funded female challengers who lose painfully close races to male incumbents who occupy rich suburban CDs.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Stender was tagged as a "big Spender" in 2006.

Yes, in a brilliant attack by her opponent that not only particularly work, but also gave her free publicity funded by her opponent.

If you think Ferguson's work labeling "Stender the Spender" actually helped her, then you're nuts.  It's what saved Ferguson.

Jeb Bradley should have gone negative on Shea-Porter when things started getting tight nationally.  It would have saved him, too.

Stender will come close again in 2008, but Ferguson was most vulnerable in 2006 after the Foley affair made his "bar room allegations" relevant news again.  And if Giuliani makes it onto the ballot, this one shouldn't even be on the radar—Ferguson's near loss can be pegged to a marked decrease in solid GOP areas like Hunterdon County that just won't happen if "favorite son" Giuliani is the nominee.

Good to see we both agree. I think this race and WA-08 will be like CT-04 and PA-06 in 2006, two well-funded female challengers who lose painfully close races to male incumbents who occupy rich suburban CDs.

NJ-07 is much more exurban than it is suburban.

[Mr.Phips]

Stender was tagged as a "big Spender" in 2006.

Yes, in a brilliant attack by her opponent that not only particularly work, but also gave her free publicity funded by her opponent.

If you think Ferguson's work labeling "Stender the Spender" actually helped her, then you're nuts.  It's what saved Ferguson.

Jeb Bradley should have gone negative on Shea-Porter when things started getting tight nationally.  It would have saved him, too.

Jeb Bradley lost because he was a very weak candidate.  I don't know why Republicans even want him to run again. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Stender was tagged as a "big Spender" in 2006.

Yes, in a brilliant attack by her opponent that not only particularly work, but also gave her free publicity funded by her opponent.

If you think Ferguson's work labeling "Stender the Spender" actually helped her, then you're nuts.  It's what saved Ferguson.

Jeb Bradley should have gone negative on Shea-Porter when things started getting tight nationally.  It would have saved him, too.

Jeb Bradley lost because he was a very weak candidate.  I don't know why Republicans even want him to run again. 

Because even now, Jeb Bradley's job approval ratings are stronger than that of the incumbent?

[Mr.Phips]

Stender was tagged as a "big Spender" in 2006.

Yes, in a brilliant attack by her opponent that not only particularly work, but also gave her free publicity funded by her opponent.

If you think Ferguson's work labeling "Stender the Spender" actually helped her, then you're nuts.  It's what saved Ferguson.

Jeb Bradley should have gone negative on Shea-Porter when things started getting tight nationally.  It would have saved him, too.

Jeb Bradley lost because he was a very weak candidate.  I don't know why Republicans even want him to run again. 

Because even now, Jeb Bradley's job approval ratings are stronger than that of the incumbent?

They are the same.  They both have net approval ratings of +21 and Bradley held the seat from 2002-2006 and Porter has only held it for nine months.  Bradley should have much higher ratings at this point. 

[MarkWarner08]

Stender was tagged as a "big Spender" in 2006.

Yes, in a brilliant attack by her opponent that not only particularly work, but also gave her free publicity funded by her opponent.

If you think Ferguson's work labeling "Stender the Spender" actually helped her, then you're nuts.  It's what saved Ferguson.

Jeb Bradley should have gone negative on Shea-Porter when things started getting tight nationally.  It would have saved him, too.

Jeb Bradley lost because he was a very weak candidate.  I don't know why Republicans even want him to run again. 

+21 is pretty strong considering the state of the GOP before the '06 election.   The reason Bradley wasn't targeted was his strength as a candidate. He thrashed Martha Fuller Clark, a Democrat was outraised Bradley and was favored by most experts to win the '02 race after her strong showing against Sununu in '00.

[Mr.Phips]

Stender was tagged as a "big Spender" in 2006.

Yes, in a brilliant attack by her opponent that not only particularly work, but also gave her free publicity funded by her opponent.

If you think Ferguson's work labeling "Stender the Spender" actually helped her, then you're nuts.  It's what saved Ferguson.

Jeb Bradley should have gone negative on Shea-Porter when things started getting tight nationally.  It would have saved him, too.

Jeb Bradley lost because he was a very weak candidate.  I don't know why Republicans even want him to run again. 

+21 is pretty strong considering the state of the GOP before the '06 election.   The reason Bradley wasn't targeted was his strength as a candidate. He thrashed Martha Fuller Clark, a Democrat was outraised Bradley and was favored by most experts to win the '02 race after her strong showing against Sununu in '00.

Bradley's big win in 2002 was mostly due to the Republican tide in the state and nationwide.  Most everyone predicted he would win anyway that year as polls showed him well ahead. 

[MarkWarner08]

Stender was tagged as a "big Spender" in 2006.

Yes, in a brilliant attack by her opponent that not only particularly work, but also gave her free publicity funded by her opponent.

If you think Ferguson's work labeling "Stender the Spender" actually helped her, then you're nuts.  It's what saved Ferguson.

Jeb Bradley should have gone negative on Shea-Porter when things started getting tight nationally.  It would have saved him, too.

Jeb Bradley lost because he was a very weak candidate.  I don't know why Republicans even want him to run again. 

+21 is pretty strong considering the state of the GOP before the '06 election.   The reason Bradley wasn't targeted was his strength as a candidate. He thrashed Martha Fuller Clark, a Democrat was outraised Bradley and was favored by most experts to win the '02 race after her strong showing against Sununu in '00.

Bradley's big win in 2002 was mostly due to the Republican tide in the state and nationwide.  Most everyone predicted he would win anyway that year as polls showed him well ahead. 

But few thought he'd win big.  I didn't know there were any public polls in that race. I've find it exceedingly difficult to find House poll info. Is there a website with that information?

[Mr.Phips]

Stender was tagged as a "big Spender" in 2006.

Yes, in a brilliant attack by her opponent that not only particularly work, but also gave her free publicity funded by her opponent.

If you think Ferguson's work labeling "Stender the Spender" actually helped her, then you're nuts.  It's what saved Ferguson.

Jeb Bradley should have gone negative on Shea-Porter when things started getting tight nationally.  It would have saved him, too.

Jeb Bradley lost because he was a very weak candidate.  I don't know why Republicans even want him to run again. 

+21 is pretty strong considering the state of the GOP before the '06 election.   The reason Bradley wasn't targeted was his strength as a candidate. He thrashed Martha Fuller Clark, a Democrat was outraised Bradley and was favored by most experts to win the '02 race after her strong showing against Sununu in '00.

Bradley's big win in 2002 was mostly due to the Republican tide in the state and nationwide.  Most everyone predicted he would win anyway that year as polls showed him well ahead. 

But few thought he'd win big.  I didn't know there were any public polls in that race. I've find it exceedingly difficult to find House poll info. Is there a website with that information?

Here is some data right here:  http://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=942&ShowAllMUPoll=Y

One Democratic poll showed him two points behind early on, but he led by 7%-12% from the primary onward. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Ourcampaigns.com showed up at the midpoint of the 2002 cycle, and has a lot of polling info for those races on it.  Here's the container for Bradley/Clark '02.

UNH had the race at Bradley 49%; Clark 43% on Nov. 2.  Bradley beat Clark by 20% on Election Day.

In New Hampshire, 2002 was for Republicans what 2006 was for Democrats.

[MarkWarner08]

Ourcampaigns.com showed up at the midpoint of the 2002 cycle, and has a lot of polling info for those races on it.  Here's the container for Bradley/Clark '02.

UNH had the race at Bradley 49%; Clark 43% on Nov. 2.  Bradley beat Clark by 20% on Election Day.

In New Hampshire, 2002 was for Republicans what 2006 was for Democrats.

Thanks for the polling data.  I agree with your comparison; both races broke big for one party at the last minute.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The '06 election broke for Democrats in NH because of the 'straight party vote' lever—actual, genuine coattails.  In 2002, the Senate race was far closer than the majority of other races—the GOP rolled up massive majorities in the State Senate and State House.

[Verily]

Ourcampaigns.com showed up at the midpoint of the 2002 cycle, and has a lot of polling info for those races on it.  Here's the container for Bradley/Clark '02.

UNH had the race at Bradley 49%; Clark 43% on Nov. 2.  Bradley beat Clark by 20% on Election Day.

In New Hampshire, 2002 was for Republicans what 2006 was for Democrats.

I'm not sure UNH is the best pollster to be basing judgments on...

[Sam Spade]

Ourcampaigns.com showed up at the midpoint of the 2002 cycle, and has a lot of polling info for those races on it.  Here's the container for Bradley/Clark '02.

UNH had the race at Bradley 49%; Clark 43% on Nov. 2.  Bradley beat Clark by 20% on Election Day.

In New Hampshire, 2002 was for Republicans what 2006 was for Democrats.

I'm not sure UNH is the best pollster to be basing judgments on...

Historically (going back a way I seem to recall), it's actually the best poll in NH.  Go figure.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Ourcampaigns.com showed up at the midpoint of the 2002 cycle, and has a lot of polling info for those races on it.  Here's the container for Bradley/Clark '02.

UNH had the race at Bradley 49%; Clark 43% on Nov. 2.  Bradley beat Clark by 20% on Election Day.

In New Hampshire, 2002 was for Republicans what 2006 was for Democrats.

I'm not sure UNH is the best pollster to be basing judgments on...

It was just the first on the list.  Most of the other pollsters had a very similar small-but-definite Bradley lead.

[Brittain33]

Bradley's big win in 2002 was mostly due to the Republican tide in the state and nationwide.  Most everyone predicted he would win anyway that year as polls showed him well ahead. 

But few thought he'd win big.  I didn't know there were any public polls in that race. I've find it exceedingly difficult to find House poll info. Is there a website with that information?

A few weeks before the Election, Clark ran an ad in which she sat in front of the camera on a basic stage and told voters in a monotone that no matter what, she would always fight for them. That's a complete Hail Mary move by a campaign that knows it's losing big. Bradley's "Clark supports the income tax and she's really fat" ads had buried her.

[defe07]

Some good news for Democrats:

In NV-03, the DCCC has finally lured Clark County Chief Deputy District Attorney Robert Daskas into the race. This seat is pehaps the most competitively drawn House district in America. With Jon Porter narrowly ekeing out a win in '06 over a first time candidate and the Democratic voter edge rising, expect a close race here. If the Democrats are lucky, Daskas could prove to be the next Mike Arcuri or Brad Ellsworth -- a politically and physically attractive sheriff with macho bona fides that bring independent white male voters back to the Democrats.


NJ-07: Linda Stender's back. Stender nearly toppled formerly entrenched GOP rising star Mike Ferguson. This race will again be close, but Ferguson starts with the early edge.

I include IN-05 to spotlight this odd poll. Does anyone know why Dan Burton is polling the GOP primary?


    An American Viewpoint poll; conducted 5/21-22; surveyed 500
likely GOP primary voters; margin of error +/- 4.5% (release, 9/13).
Tested: Rep. Dan Burton (R) and physician John McGoff (R)

Primary Election Matchup
D. Burton   71%
J. McGoff   15

Dumb question here: are there any third party or independent candidates running in these races?