NJ-3: Adler Announces Against Saxton

[Conan]

http://www.nj.com/newsflash/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-27/119031896985290.xml&storylist=jersey

That means there can possibly be a second exciting race her in NJ for Congress. The other, obviously is the Stender-Ferguson rematch. Adler is a top tier candidate. If he is able to raise near what Saxton has, I'd say there's a great chance he will win. The district is about half GOP and half dem. The dem nominee will do better than Kerry in 08 so I'd says it's not far off to say the democrat nominee for pres will carry this district.

Adler has $200,000
Saxton has $1,200,000

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://www.nj.com/newsflash/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-27/119031896985290.xml&storylist=jersey

That means there can possibly be a second exciting race her in NJ for Congress. The other, obviously is the Stender-Ferguson rematch. Adler is a top tier candidate. If he is able to raise near what Saxton has, I'd say there's a great chance he will win. The district is about half GOP and half dem. The dem nominee will do better than Kerry in 08 so I'd says it's not far off to say the democrat nominee for pres will carry this district.

Adler has $200,000
Saxton has $1,200,000

Possibly, but not probably.  I heard loads of promises about this district before.

Adler can probably win Camden (read: Cherry Hill), but will struggle in parts east.

[MarkWarner08]

This races looks like a non-starter.  Saxton is relatively popular in the district, votes well enough not anger liberal interest groups and has loads of political capital. If there's a Democratic wave in 2008, this race could be worth watching, otherwise, Adler will probably win around 45%.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The "sad" thing for rank-and-file NJ Democrats is that, so far as the moneyed interests are concerned, Congressional seats aren't worth chasing after the same way State Senate seats or Freeholder (county gov't) seats are.

The reason, of course, is that Congressmen are subject to much stricter rules regarding the funneling of contracts.  They're not cash cows; Freeholder Boards are.

I guarantee you that there will be more than one State Senate candidate this year that raises more money than John Adler does for his 2008 race.

[MAS117]

Adler will be able to raise the kind of money needed to stay competitive with Saxton, you watch. As per the State Legislature races mentioned above in Mr. Moderate's post, it is possible more money will be raised for them then in Congressional races, but lets understand that it is not usually the candidate that is paying for the ads it usually is the Senate Majority PAC or something along those lines. If you look at Ellen Karchers new reelect ad for State Senate you will notice it is payed for by the Senate Democratic Majority.

[Brittain33]

Possibly, but not probably.  I heard loads of promises about this district before.

Adler can probably win Camden (read: Cherry Hill), but will struggle in parts east.

The only time I remember this district mentioned was in 2000, when Susan Bass Levin's star power was supposed to carry her to victory. Then she went through several campaign managers and people discovered she wasn't even popular in the town where she was mayor, and when Republicans did well in House races everywhere Saxton won a convincing win.

I think this district is worth a shot, and Adler's a strong candidate.

[Conan]

This is really Saxton's first big challenge. He was a nobody in 1990. If he does lose, it wont be by more than 7-10%. Last year's challenger wasn't well known or even known of before he challenged Saxton. Despite all of the gloom already handed down to Adler here, I think you're underestimating the numbers in the district (it's a swing district, could go either way for pres) and Adler. If I were to say he will lose, i'd say it will be:

Saxton - 52-4%
Adler - 46-8%

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This is really Saxton's first big challenge. He was a nobody in 1990. If he does lose, it wont be by more than 7-10%. Last year's challenger wasn't well known or even known of before he challenged Saxton. Despite all of the gloom already handed down to Adler here, I think you're underestimating the numbers in the district (it's a swing district, could go either way for pres) and Adler. If I were to say he will lose, i'd say it will be:

Saxton - 52-4%
Adler - 46-8%

2000 was definitely a "big challenge" for Saxton—he was seriously targeted by the DCCC.  And he handed that superbly, winning re-election by a huge margin.  It may be a "swing" district, but no matter—Saxton is an institution here.

If Saxton does lose, it won't be by more than 1 or 2%—but like I said, there's not much chance of him losing here.

[Brittain33]

2000 was definitely a "big challenge" for Saxton—he was seriously targeted by the DCCC.  And he handed that superbly, winning re-election by a huge margin.

I don't know how much credit you can give him for "superb handling" when his opponent imploded well before Election Day.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

2000 was definitely a "big challenge" for Saxton—he was seriously targeted by the DCCC.  And he handed that superbly, winning re-election by a huge margin.

I don't know how much credit you can give him for "superb handling" when his opponent imploded well before Election Day.

Given how many candidates wind up imploding with very little prodding, it is indeed a feat for a candidate to run an error-free campaign.

[Mr.Phips]

2000 was definitely a "big challenge" for Saxton—he was seriously targeted by the DCCC.  And he handed that superbly, winning re-election by a huge margin.

I don't know how much credit you can give him for "superb handling" when his opponent imploded well before Election Day.

Given how many candidates wind up imploding with very little prodding, it is indeed a feat for a candidate to run an error-free campaign.

You also must remember that 2000 was a very pro-incumbent environment, which helped Saxton tremendously.  We are not likely to see that in 2008. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

2000 was definitely a "big challenge" for Saxton—he was seriously targeted by the DCCC.  And he handed that superbly, winning re-election by a huge margin.

I don't know how much credit you can give him for "superb handling" when his opponent imploded well before Election Day.

Given how many candidates wind up imploding with very little prodding, it is indeed a feat for a candidate to run an error-free campaign.

You also must remember that 2000 was a very pro-incumbent environment, which helped Saxton tremendously.  We are not likely to see that in 2008. 

It wasn't that pro-incumbent.  Plenty of seats flipped, especially in California.

[MarkWarner08]

2000 was definitely a "big challenge" for Saxton—he was seriously targeted by the DCCC.  And he handed that superbly, winning re-election by a huge margin.

I don't know how much credit you can give him for "superb handling" when his opponent imploded well before Election Day.

Given how many candidates wind up imploding with very little prodding, it is indeed a feat for a candidate to run an error-free campaign.

You also must remember that 2000 was a very pro-incumbent environment, which helped Saxton tremendously.  We are not likely to see that in 2008. 

It wasn't that pro-incumbent.  Plenty of seats flipped, especially in California.

That's a funny line. The ONLY place the GOP lost (not counting the Bill Clinton related defeated of Jay Dickey) House seats in 2000 was California.

To say "plenty of seats flipped" is disingenuous, unless you define plenty to be one Democratic leaning seat in Arkansas. There were actually more GOP House pickups in 2000 than Democratic House pickups outside California.

[Conan]

This is really Saxton's first big challenge. He was a nobody in 1990. If he does lose, it wont be by more than 7-10%. Last year's challenger wasn't well known or even known of before he challenged Saxton. Despite all of the gloom already handed down to Adler here, I think you're underestimating the numbers in the district (it's a swing district, could go either way for pres) and Adler. If I were to say he will lose, i'd say it will be:

Saxton - 52-4%
Adler - 46-8%

2000 was definitely a "big challenge" for Saxton—he was seriously targeted by the DCCC.  And he handed that superbly, winning re-election by a huge margin.  It may be a "swing" district, but no matter—Saxton is an institution here.

If Saxton does lose, it won't be by more than 1 or 2%—but like I said, there's not much chance of him losing here.

I believe this is a far superior challenge. National democrats now control congress and completely own the fundraising. NJ is more democratic and less republican. Republicans are in the tank nationally (and in the state) and won't have anyone popular or known running for senate. This is how today is different than 2000. The two are really incomparable. As of this moment, I agree that Saxton will probably win reelection and if he does lose, it's definitely not going to be by more than what you said. I just think youre being a little over dismissive.

[Conan]

According to PoliticsNJ,
Adler will be at a Rangel Sponsored "meet and greet" this wednesday along with 6 other House Candidates.

[MAS117]

According to PoliticsNJ,
Adler will be at a Rangel Sponsored "meet and greet" this wednesday along with 6 other House Candidates.

That is correct. Let the fundraising begin!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

According to PoliticsNJ,
Adler will be at a Rangel Sponsored "meet and greet" this wednesday along with 6 other House Candidates.

That is correct. Let the fundraising begin!

It had better—Saxton started his fundraising years ago!

[MAS117]

According to PoliticsNJ,
Adler will be at a Rangel Sponsored "meet and greet" this wednesday along with 6 other House Candidates.

That is correct. Let the fundraising begin!

It had better—Saxton started his fundraising years ago!

Saxton has yet to say that he is definitely even running for reelection. He could decide a very hard campaign isn't worth being in the minority for and getting passed up yet AGAIN for another good committee post. In that case I would tip the scale to tossup for an Adler v. Allen race. However, I think Saxton will run.

[Conan]

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

According to PoliticsNJ,
Adler will be at a Rangel Sponsored "meet and greet" this wednesday along with 6 other House Candidates.

That is correct. Let the fundraising begin!

It had better—Saxton started his fundraising years ago!

Saxton has yet to say that he is definitely even running for reelection. He could decide a very hard campaign isn't worth being in the minority for and getting passed up yet AGAIN for another good committee post. In that case I would tip the scale to tossup for an Adler v. Allen race. However, I think Saxton will run.

Saxton ran for and won his seat just to serve in the minority.  I'd be very surprised if Saxton retired out of fear of a "hard" campaign, especially considering that Adler is not especially favored to win by any measure.

And I'd say that Diane Allen would have a definite advantage in a Adler v. Allen race.  After all, her legislative district is the equivalent of, what, D+10?  D+15?  It's the result of highly favorable name recognition from her time as a Philly anchorwoman—she just waltzed into the State Assembly in a heavily Democratic District in a not-so-friendly year for NJ Republicans (1995), and then easily picked up the State Senate seat two years later.

Not to mention that Diane Allen runs just as well in her heavily Democratic State Senate district (+20.6%) as Adler does in his own heavily Democratic State Senate district (+22.0%).

In this case, "Top Priority" means "Second Priority."  Notice the absence of the real top tier congressional challengers like Linda Stender.  John Unger?  Gary Trauner?  Christine Jennings?  Pffft, good luck.

[Conan]

In this case, "Top Priority" means "Second Priority."  Notice the absence of the real top tier congressional challengers like Linda Stender.  John Unger?  Gary Trauner?  Christine Jennings?  Pffft, good luck.

The DCCC makes these at the end of every fundraising quarter. Linda Stender was in the last one.

[MAS117]

According to PoliticsNJ,
Adler will be at a Rangel Sponsored "meet and greet" this wednesday along with 6 other House Candidates.

That is correct. Let the fundraising begin!

It had better—Saxton started his fundraising years ago!

Saxton has yet to say that he is definitely even running for reelection. He could decide a very hard campaign isn't worth being in the minority for and getting passed up yet AGAIN for another good committee post. In that case I would tip the scale to tossup for an Adler v. Allen race. However, I think Saxton will run.

Saxton ran for and won his seat just to serve in the minority.  I'd be very surprised if Saxton retired out of fear of a "hard" campaign, especially considering that Adler is not especially favored to win by any measure.

And I'd say that Diane Allen would have a definite advantage in a Adler v. Allen race.  After all, her legislative district is the equivalent of, what, D+10?  D+15?  It's the result of highly favorable name recognition from her time as a Philly anchorwoman—she just waltzed into the State Assembly in a heavily Democratic District in a not-so-friendly year for NJ Republicans (1995), and then easily picked up the State Senate seat two years later.

Not to mention that Diane Allen runs just as well in her heavily Democratic State Senate district (+20.6%) as Adler does in his own heavily Democratic State Senate district (+22.0%).

In this case, "Top Priority" means "Second Priority."  Notice the absence of the real top tier congressional challengers like Linda Stender.  John Unger?  Gary Trauner?  Christine Jennings?  Pffft, good luck.

I disagree if Saxton was to retire and Allen ran I would put the race into the tossup category. If for some reason Allen were to retire or not run again I think you would see that district possibly swing D if the right person ran.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I disagree if Saxton was to retire and Allen ran I would put the race into the tossup category. If for some reason Allen were to retire or not run again I think you would see that district possibly swing D if the right person ran.

If you're talking about her State Senate district, there's no chance in hell Republicans could hold it without her.

[MAS117]

I disagree if Saxton was to retire and Allen ran I would put the race into the tossup category. If for some reason Allen were to retire or not run again I think you would see that district possibly swing D if the right person ran.

If you're talking about her State Senate district, there's no chance in hell Republicans could hold it without her.

Yes, I was referring to her State Senate seat.