SUSA 09/2007 General Election Polls

[Tender Branson]

ALABAMA:

Clinton vs. Giuliani: 41-52
Clinton vs. Thompson: 41-54
Clinton vs. Romney: 45-46

Obama vs. Giuliani: 32-59
Obama vs. Thompson: 34-60
Obama vs. Romney: 36-53

Edwards vs. Giuliani: 40-50
Edwards vs. Thompson: 38-50
Edwards vs. Romney: 45-39

KANSAS:

Clinton vs. Giuliani: 40-52
Clinton vs. Thompson: 40-53
Clinton vs. Romney: 46-45

Obama vs. Giuliani: 40-51
Obama vs. Thompson: 40-50
Obama vs. Romney: 47-41

Edwards vs. Giuliani: 40-50
Edwards vs. Thompson: 39-46
Edwards vs. Romney: 48-34

KENTUCKY:

Clinton vs. Giuliani: 41-51
Clinton vs. Thompson: 45-50
Clinton vs. Romney: 46-46

Obama vs. Giuliani: 36-54
Obama vs. Thompson: 37-54
Obama vs. Romney: 43-45

Edwards vs. Giuliani: 43-50
Edwards vs. Thompson: 45-44
Edwards vs. Romney: 48-38

OHIO:

Clinton vs. Giuliani: 47-48
Clinton vs. Thompson: 48-47
Clinton vs. Romney: 52-42

Obama vs. Giuliani: 39-52
Obama vs. Thompson: 42-50
Obama vs. Romney: 45-46

Edwards vs. Giuliani: 47-48
Edwards vs. Thompson: 52-43
Edwards vs. Romney: 56-36

[Tender Branson]

Strange: How is Obama ahead of Giuliani by 6% nationally in todays Rasmussen poll, if he´s behind him by 13% in this SUSA Ohio poll ? Something must be wrong here ...

[Please Delete my account!!]

Strange: How is Obama ahead of Giuliani by 6% nationally in todays Rasmussen poll, if he´s behind him by 13% in this SUSA Ohio poll ? Something must be wrong here ...

It's called a poll over a year before the general election when the only people who are paying attention are the political junkies like here on the board.  General Election polls are more or less meaningless right now.  That's why they are all over the map.  My advice, wait until after we know who the candidates are, then see what the polls say then.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

This just shows that in a race that should be theoretically theirs, the Democrats have failed in choosing a candidate that would overcome the dreaded blue state/red state divide in America that ultimately dooms the Democrats.

I predict:  moderates and independents who swung toward John Kerry in 2004 will fail to back the Democratic nominee in 2008.   

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't think that's entirely fair. I really think it would be near impossible to find a candidate among high profile Democrats who could win in places like Kansas and Alabama, but still hold places like OR, NM, NH, PA. But look at KY Giuliani is the only candidate either Clinton or Edwards doesn't get into the mid 40s against. Mind you Romney's state by state numbers do suggest that he is incredibly vulnerable Clinton beats him in KS and OH, tied in KY and just behind in AL. Edwards beats him everywhere and Obama beats him Kansas.

[Eraserhead]

Wow Alabama still hates a black but it looks like they hate a Mormon too!

Obama's numbers in Ohio make no sense and go against all of the other general election polls of Ohio that have included him. If I was Edwards or Giuliani though I would pimp these numbers whenever I had a chance.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Why can't my boy show the Democratic primary goers these numbers?  Seriously, his numbers are awful in the primary but every time I see general election polls he's kicking ass.  Can you imagine how he would do if Edwards and Romney were the nominees?  Up 12 in KANSAS?!  Up 6 in Alabama?! Can you say sweep?  (besides Utah and Idaho of course)

[Eraserhead]

Why can't my boy show the Democratic primary goers these numbers?  Seriously, his numbers are awful in the primary but every time I see general election polls he's kicking ass.  Can you imagine how he would do if Edwards and Romney were the nominees?  Up 12 in KANSAS?!  Up 6 in Alabama?! Can you say sweep?  (besides Utah and Idaho of course)

..and Wyoming and several other states but yes that particular general election would be a death sentence for the GOP.

[AndrewTX]

YAY I'M NOT THE ONLY ONE WHO HATES ROMNEY!

[HardRCafé]

KENTUCKY:

Clinton vs. Giuliani: 41-51

OHIO:

Clinton vs. Giuliani: 47-48

Time to flip a few back to blue.

[Umengus]

Strange: How is Obama ahead of Giuliani by 6% nationally in todays Rasmussen poll, if he´s behind him by 13% in this SUSA Ohio poll ? Something must be wrong here ...

It's called a poll over a year before the general election when the only people who are paying attention are the political junkies like here on the board.  General Election polls are more or less meaningless right now.  That's why they are all over the map.  My advice, wait until after we know who the candidates are, then see what the polls say then.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Edwards is also the strongest Democrat in Missouri. He might not be doing so well in the primary, but he is kicking ass in the general election.



http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=9a9fb4d3-3656-4193-8710-77c172996c1c

[Tender Branson]

IOWA:

Clinton vs. Giuliani: 50-42
Clinton vs. Thompson: 50-44
Clinton vs. Romney: 50-43

Obama vs. Giuliani: 50-42
Obama vs. Thompson: 51-41
Obama vs. Romney: 51-41

Edwards vs. Giuliani: 53-39
Edwards vs. Thompson: 54-37
Edwards vs. Romney: 54-38

[Tender Branson]

MISSOURI:

Clinton vs. Giuliani: 45-48
Clinton vs. Thompson: 48-45
Clinton vs. Romney: 51-40

Obama vs. Giuliani: 46-44
Obama vs. Thompson: 48-45
Obama vs. Romney: 51-40

Edwards vs. Giuliani: 47-42
Edwards vs. Thompson: 50-40
Edwards vs. Romney: 56-32

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's kind of strange how poorly Edwards is doing in the primary, since of the major candidates, he is the best at standing up to the Republicans, and he polls the best in the general election.

AL: Edwards strongest in all 3 cases
KS: Edwards strongest in all 3 cases
KY: Edwards strongest in all 3 cases
OH: Edwards strongest in all 3 cases, Clinton just as good against Giuliani
IA: Edwards strongest in all 3 cases
MO: Edwards strongest in all 3 cases

Hmm, there seems to be a pattern there.

[Tender Branson]

New map Giuliani vs. Clinton: Giuliani takes back OH, MO and KY

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm beginning to wonder if Iowa won't even be competitive. Yes I know how early it is, but all Dem candidates are over 50% in every matchup.

If that's the case, the GOP is seriously screwed.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm beginning to wonder if Iowa won't even be competitive. Yes I know how early it is, but all Dem candidates are over 50% in every matchup.

If that's the case, the GOP is seriously screwed.

In Iowa.

[HardRCafé]

It still surprises me Iowa was the most significant flip last time.

[Gustaf]

Iowa is probably harder to predict at this stage due to primary effects. Whether those will last is another question. But it does seem like the kind of state likely to go Democrat in a Clinton vs Guliani race. It's fairly obvious that Guliani would probably have to make inroads in the Northeast if he's to carry the day.

[Tender Branson]

Iowa is probably harder to predict at this stage due to primary effects. Whether those will last is another question. But it does seem like the kind of state likely to go Democrat in a Clinton vs Guliani race. It's fairly obvious that Guliani would probably have to make inroads in the Northeast if he's to carry the day.

Interesting fact: NH (Kerry+1) seems to be closer right now than IA (Bush+1) is, allthough everyone already campaigned there for the last 6-9 months and people should already have a (clearer) picture than in other states. But lets wait for a Rasmussen poll on IA first. I suppose it will show closer results for Clinton vs. the Republicans than SurveyUSA. IA still is a swing state and will be close until election day.

Giuliani will probably focus heavily on OR, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, FL and NH if he´s the nominee. I´d rule out MN and NJ for now, because there´s already a recent trend which shows Giuliani losing ground there.

[Tender Branson]

Released today:

NEW MEXICO:

Clinton vs. Giuliani: 51-43
Clinton vs. Thompson: 53-42
Clinton vs. Romney: 54-39

Obama vs. Giuliani: 46-46
Obama vs. Thompson: 52-41
Obama vs. Romney: 55-36

Edwards vs. Giuliani: 48-44
Edwards vs. Thompson: 52-37
Edwards vs. Romney: 54-34

[Gustaf]

Iowa is probably harder to predict at this stage due to primary effects. Whether those will last is another question. But it does seem like the kind of state likely to go Democrat in a Clinton vs Guliani race. It's fairly obvious that Guliani would probably have to make inroads in the Northeast if he's to carry the day.

Interesting fact: NH (Kerry+1) seems to be closer right now than IA (Bush+1) is, allthough everyone already campaigned there for the last 6-9 months and people should already have a (clearer) picture than in other states. But lets wait for a Rasmussen poll on IA first. I suppose it will show closer results for Clinton vs. the Republicans than SurveyUSA. IA still is a swing state and will be close until election day.

Giuliani will probably focus heavily on OR, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, FL and NH if he´s the nominee. I´d rule out MN and NJ for now, because there´s already a recent trend which shows Giuliani losing ground there.

New Hampshire I think illustrates my point; it's a sade Clinton state and has seen relatively little campaigning from Democrats, but it much more more hotly contested by the Republicans. I suspect this helps the GOP there.

And I definitely don't think Guliani will have much of a chance in Minnesota. New Jersey is *probably* too Democratic for him to have a chance either.

[Nym90]

It's kind of strange how poorly Edwards is doing in the primary, since of the major candidates, he is the best at standing up to the Republicans, and he polls the best in the general election.

AL: Edwards strongest in all 3 cases
KS: Edwards strongest in all 3 cases
KY: Edwards strongest in all 3 cases
OH: Edwards strongest in all 3 cases, Clinton just as good against Giuliani
IA: Edwards strongest in all 3 cases
MO: Edwards strongest in all 3 cases

Hmm, there seems to be a pattern there.

Agreed, Edwards is definitely our strongest candidate.

[Tender Branson]

Released today:

VIRGINIA:

Clinton vs. Giuliani: 50-44
Clinton vs. Thompson: 50-43
Clinton vs. Romney: 53-38

Obama vs. Giuliani: 46-45
Obama vs. Thompson: 45-47
Obama vs. Romney: 50-38

Edwards vs. Giuliani: 48-43
Edwards vs. Thompson: 49-39
Edwards vs. Romney: 52-33

WISCONSIN:

Clinton vs. Giuliani: 48-44
Clinton vs. Thompson: 47-45
Clinton vs. Romney: 50-41

Obama vs. Giuliani: 46-43
Obama vs. Thompson: 48-43
Obama vs. Romney: 52-37

Edwards vs. Giuliani: 44-45
Edwards vs. Thompson: 49-40
Edwards vs. Romney: 52-34