George Bush wins in 1992

[Simfan34]

In 1992, George Bush wins reelection over Bill Clinton, with a decent popular vote margin but a tighter electoral vote margin, thanks to the popularity of the Southrons Clinton and Gore. Although he dropped out, Ross Perot recivies a large amount of votes regardless.

George Bush/Dan Quayle Bill Clinton/Al Gore Ross Perot/George Stockdale

48.2% 45.1% 1.8%

273 EV 265 EV 0 EV

The economy starts to grow and Bush is popular, and Quayle keeps quiet. Byron White retires from the Supreme Court and is replaced by Emilio Garza, becoming the first Latino Supreme Court Justice. In 1994, in Somalia the Bush Administration not only sends the requested assets, but they also see things through after the engagement. The death of Mohammed Aidid at the hands of Delta Force and the Rangers in April, 1994, is a huge triumph for the Bush Administration. In Michigan, son of former governor Willard M. "Will" Romney defeats Congressman Bob Carr in the Senate race there.

In 1996, Governor Mario Cuomo easily wins the Democratic nomination for president. He selects former California governor Jerry Brown as his running mate. The Republicans select Bob Dole, who chooses the popular moderate Massachusetts governor William Weld for his vice president. While the Bush-Quayle administration is highly popular, Dole struggles to overcome voter fatigue of 16 years of Republican rule, the longest run since the administrations of FDR and Harry Truman, and voters are tired of old, overly familiar faces (Reagan, of course, first ran in 1976, as had Dole, and Bush in 1980). While the polls are close, a strong showing by Cuomo in the debates puts him over the top. Weld, at least, wins New Hampshire for Dole.

Mario Cuomo/Jerry Brown Bob Dole/William Weld

51.4% 48.3%

274 EV 264 EV

Cuomo benefits from continued economic growth, but many voters credit the Bush administration with it, so he stays not so popular, leading to some losses in the 1998 midterms. In Texas, for example, George W. Bush, son of the president, is elected governor, as is his brother, Jeb Bush. Shortly after, he pushes a universal, single-payer insurance system and as his primary delegate chooses HHS Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton, wife of the 1992 candidate, leading to the common name "Hillarycare". Clinton is able to attractively market the program, leading to its narrow passage in 2000, and Cuomo sees an upturn in popularity. He faces no real challenge to nomination.

The two main contenders for the Republican nomination are Connie Mack and John Danforth, the latter eventually eking it out. Danforth selects New Jersey governor Christine Todd Whitman as his running mate, making her the first woman to be nominated by the Republican party for vice-president. That is not enough to overcome the popularity of Hillarycare and the good economy of the dot-com boom, and Cuomo wins in a relative landslide. There are also gains in the Senate and in the States, for example Chuck Robb is reelected Senator from Virginia, narrowly defeating George Allen. Maria Cantwell defeats incumbent Slade Gorton in Washington, while in Montana Brian Schweitzer defeats Conrad Burns. Debbie Stabbenow comes close in Michigan, but Will Romney prevails narrowly, 49%-47%.

Mario Cuomo/Jerry Brown John Danforth/Christine Todd Whitman

55.3% 43.8%

400 EV 138 EV

Unfortunately for President Cuomo, things turn bad in his second term. The dot-com boom turns into a bubble, which bursts. The president rejects calls for stimulus, and tax cuts, so the economy remains stagnant. One bright spot is his intervention in Afghanistan early in 2001, acting on reports citing the Taliban's cooperation with al-Qaeda, that decapitates the leadership of those two groups. Resistance leader Ahmad Shah Massoud is quickly able to take over the country with American support, and a loya jirga proclaims the restoration of Mohammed Zahir Shah with Massoud as Prime Minister. Cuomo meets with the Afghan king in 2002, and the whole affair bolsters his popularity.

However the economy remains stagnant, and Cuomo's popularity flounders. As an attempt at stimulus, construction is launched on a massive 17,000 mile national high speed rail system to be completed by 2025. In the 2002 midterms many of the gains made in 2000 are reversed. Norm Coleman defeats the progressive Paul Wellstone in Minnesota, while in Louisiana Suzanne Haik Terrell defeats Mary Landrieu. In Georgia, Herman Cain is elected to the Senate. In Michigan, Senator Will Romney is elected governor, defeating House Whip David E. Bonior, on the platform of furthering Canada-Michigan trade, meanwhile, in Oklahoma, Congressman J.C. Watts is elected Governor. One gain for the Democrats is the victory of former HHS Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton over incumbent senator Tim Hutchinson.

In 2004, Vice President Jerry Brown wins a contentious nomination race against Dick Gephardt and Bill Bradley, and eventually chooses neither as his vice presidential candidate, instead opting for New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson. The republicans nominate former vice-presidential nominee Christine Todd Whitman, who wins the primary race comfortable, making her the first woman to ever be nominated for the presidency. She wins comfortably, closing the gender gap and winning over young women 55-44. It is said that many, both male and female, are eager to see a woman in the White House. Her vice president is the conservative Orrin Hatch, selected to mollify the concerns of those who deemed her more moderate. On January 21st, 2005, Christine Todd Whitman makes history by becoming the first female President of the United States of America. Hatch, less notably, is the first Mormon vice-president. It goes without mention that Jon M. Huntsman Jr. is elected governor of Utah.

Christine Todd Whitman/Orrin Hatch Jerry Brown/Bill Richardson

52.8% 47.1%

306 EV 232 EV

[Simfan34]

One of Whitman's first moves is to pass an across-the-board tax cut, which sparks fast economic growth. Whitman also embarks upon a large "green technologies" initiative that builds many wind turbines, solar plants, and doubles the country's hydroelectric capacity (by 2015). However, the government surplus, which has been enjoyed since 1995 under Bush, is eroded from a $1.2 trillion dollar surplus in 1999 to a $350 billion deficit in 2006, due to Hillarycare, the Whitman tax cuts, and her energy program, and increased spending in the military (Cuomo had cut it). The economy is still growing however, so the composition of the the Congress does not change much. Another gain for Whitman is successful regime change in Sudan and the peaceful separation of Darfur and South Sudan.

In 2008 the Democrats nominate moderate Arkansas Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton for their nomination, setting the stage for the first presidential race between two women, and she selects former House Majority Leader Tom Daschle as her running mate. Whitman is able to turn a narrow but consistent lead for the first half of 2008. However, her stimulus has appreciated a upturn in housing construction in the already decent economy (at this point the GDP is roughly 20% higher than it was in reality), precipitating a major bubble- banks overextend themselves. Finally, precipitated by the virtual collapse of Citigroup, the Dow Jones tumbles 11% on July 24, "Black Thursday", and will go on to lose 45 % of its value, which had been just under 20,000 points. Voters blame Whitman, and she loses handily to Clinton, who becomes the second female president of the US, obviously.

Hillary Rodham Clinton/Tom Daschle Christine Todd Whitman/Orrin Hatch

53.1% 46.5%

344 EV 194 EV

Clinton takes rapid action as president, nationalising several banks and ordering a restructuring of the industry, for one thing re-instating Glass-Steagal. She launches a large stimulus package to build bridges, new airports, double down on high speed rail, schools, and continues Whitman's environmental program. In 2010 the Democrats make major gains in the Senate and House, vindicating her plan. The deficit soars to $2.1 trillion, but is planned by the CBO to return to surplus by 2020, thanks to the stimulus.

now things get a little exciting here- you can disregard the following if you really want to

However, on May 12, 2011, the worst tragedy in the history of mankind occurs.

In China, a 8.3 magnitude earthquake causes the total failure of the Three Gorges Dam. 120 million people are killed in the ensuing flood, and 50% of that country's GDP disappears virtually overnight. The cities of Wuhan, Nanjing, and Shanghai are completely obliterated, with many others more. President Hu Jintao's government is swamped by protest, and is overthrown in August by a PLA coup, which places the hardliner Bo Xilai as paramount leader. China descends into near-civil war. The rest of the world, on the other hand, is thrown back into a full depression, and in 2011 US GDP contracts 4.3%. Clinton is unpopular, but voters concede the economy's state is generally beyond her control here. 

But when several state owned banks go bankrupt, the government is left with trillions of bad assets on its books. In early 2012 the Occupy Wall Street movement gains steam, and demands full nationalization of the banking sector. A general strike called on May 1 brings in over 4 million people out of their workplaces and into the streets. Things abroad are not much better. With the loss of its patron, and the subsequent death of Kim Jong-il North Korea descends into chaos, and launches an invasion of the South in April 2012, shelling Seoul and invading as far as Incheon before the combined weight of the United States and South Korea are able to repel the force over the border, destroy the North's military capability, and establish a tenuous occupation of the North six weeks later. Continued unrest in China means a good deal of the KPA and the Korean leadership is able of flee to Manchuria, meaning further action might be necessary.

Before this occurred, the Republicans reacted to the leftwards shift and nominated Michigan Governor Will Romney for the presidency, who then selected the hawkish New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte.  Now the race is in chaos. Unemployment is at 10.3%. and rising.

My question is to you- who wins? Whoever they are, they will have to face:

-an insolvent financial sector
-a radicalized labour movmement
-a potential land war in Asia
-the occupation of North Korea
-mass unemployment
-a tremendous budget deficit. I'll throw in the fiscal cliff for fun
-rising crime

Whoever loses will likely be the better off.

[Simfan34]

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

James Stockdale, not George Stockdale.

[Simfan34]

Thanks for pointing that out.

[Person Man]

No president would win lose reelection in the middle of a war, especially one that is at the point of escalating and especially with the country in choas. 

[Blackacre]

Probably Clinton. The depression is beyond her control and she is doing everything she can, and she can contrast her depression with the recession that people blamed her predecessor for, the woman from the same party Romney's in.