Australian seat-by-seat predictions
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Author Topic: Australian seat-by-seat predictions  (Read 1362 times)
Platypus
hughento
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« on: September 24, 2007, 04:27:03 AM »
« edited: October 05, 2007, 12:49:30 AM by hughento »

Using the ABC's electoral calculator this was my result.
*=swing seat, will be further analysed later.
^=seat of note, will be further analysed later.

Western Australia:

A slight swing to the ALP of 1.2%;
Liberal (10 Seats)
0.6% Hasluck*
0.8% Stirling*
5.1% Kalgoorlie^
7.8% Forrest
8.3% Canning
9.6% Moore
10.5% Tangney
11.7% Pearce
13.4% Curtin
19.2% O'Connor
Labor (5 seats)
0.5% Cowan*
1.3% Swan*
4.4% Brand^
7.5% Fremantle^
7.9% Perth

Northern Territory (2)Sad

A swing of 3.6% to the ALP, below the national average but enough to pick up Solomon
Labor (2 seats)
0.8% Solomon*
15.0% Lingiari

South Australia (11)Sad

A swing of 3.5% to Labor sees three pickups for the ALP-the redistribution can't've hurt, either
Labor (6 seats)
2.8% Wakefield*
3.4% Kingston*
3.6% Hindmarsh*
4.1% Makin*^
4.8% Adelaide
14.9% Port Adelaide
Liberal (5 seats)
1.9% Boothby*
3.3% Sturt
8.8% Grey
10.1% Mayo
16.4% Barker

Tasmania (5)

A swing the the ALP of 3.0%, but that might be a bit generous towards them; some predict a slight swing towards the coalition, but I'd be surprised if the ALP didn't get at least 1.5% back.
Labor (5 seats)
0.4% Bass*
1.9% Braddon*
6.7% Lyons^
7.6% Franklin^
16.3% Denison

Victoria (35)

A swing of 3.7% state-wide to the ALP changes pretty much nothing.
Labor (19 seats)
3.7% Isaacs*
4.7% Bendigo*
5.2% Holt*
5.9% Ballarat
6.4% Chisholm
7.2% Bruce
7.4% Melbourne Ports^
7.8% Corio
8.1% Jagajaga^
11.1% Hotham^
11.7% Maribyrnong^
11.9% Calwell
12.5% Lalor
18.5% Scullin
18.6% Gorton
18.7% Gellibrand
20.6% Wills
24.8% Melbourne^
25.0% Batman
Liberal (16 seats)
1.3% Deakin*
1.3% McMillan*
1.6% Corangamite
2.1% La Trobe^
2.7% McEwen^
5.1% Higgins^
5.7% Dunkley
5.9% Kooyong
6.3% Goldstein
7.0% Menzies
7.4% Flinders^
7.6% Casey
8.7% Wannon
9.5% Aston
12.6% Indi
20.4% Murray
Nationals (2 seats)
4.0% Gippsland^
21.0% Mallee^
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2007, 03:02:16 PM »

Waiting for more. Smiley
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2007, 01:50:42 AM »

Australian Capital Teritory (2)

A swing of 7.3% to the ALP-whatever the final figure is, it will be at absolute minimum a swing of 4% to the ALP unless something major happens, but even then the ALP will win both seats. The interest is in the senate race.
Labor (2 seats)
17.2% Canberra
20.6% Fraser

New South Wales (48)

Labor takes the majority of NSW seats including the bellwether Eden-Monaro with a swing of 4.0%
Labor (26 seats)
0.0% Page*
0.7% Eden-Monaro*^
1.5% Wentworth*^
2.6% Lindsay*
3.2% Parramatta*^
4.5% Macquarie*^
5.4% Richmond*
7.0% Lowe*
7.2% Banks^
10.4% Prospect
10.9% Charlton
10.9% Werriwa^
11.6% Barton
12.7% Kingsford Smith
13.1% Newcastle
13.2% Shortland
15.1% Hunter
15.6% Cunningham^
16.0% Chifley
16.1% Reid
17.3% Fowler
17.7% Blaxland
17.8% Throsby
18.6% Watson
21.4% Sydney
25.2% Grayndler^

Liberal (17seats)
0.1% Bennelong*^
0.8% Dobell*
2.3% Patterson^
2.9% Robertson
4.5% Hughes
5.4% Gilmore
6.0% North Sydney^
7.2% Macarthur
7.3% Warringah^
7.4% Greenway^
7.8% Cook
8.8% Hume
9.8% Berowra
11.5% Mackellar
12.6% Farrer
13.6% Bradfield
15.2% Mitchell

National (5 seats)
2.7% Cowper*
7.4% Calare^
9.4% Lyne
12.1% Parkes^
16.8% Riverina


Independent (1 seat)
? New England-Tony Windsor
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2007, 08:25:45 AM »

Hugh, I think you're underestimating the swings.

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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2007, 07:20:39 AM »

These are the statewide swings. I think some seats will be radically different, for example Bennelong Smiley
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