Quinnipiac NJ-Sen: Lautenberg (D) 39%, Generic Republican (R) 36%

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

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[Padfoot]

Sucks for Lautenberg.  Is there any New Jersey Democrat who isn't so tainted that they couldn't take up the reigns in this race or is everyone associated with the NJ Democratic party tied up in a scandal right now?

[Sam Spade]

I still can't see him not being elected, unless he exhibits William Roth syndrome.  Though really, New Jersey is one of those states where they should get rid of most of the politicians there and start over.

[Eraserhead]

He'll still win.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Sucks for Lautenberg.  Is there any New Jersey Democrat who isn't so tainted that they couldn't take up the reigns in this race or is everyone associated with the NJ Democratic party tied up in a scandal right now?

You'd have to pry the nomination from Lautenberg's cold, dead hands.  Literally.

[Conan]

Sucks for Lautenberg.  Is there any New Jersey Democrat who isn't so tainted that they couldn't take up the reigns in this race or is everyone associated with the NJ Democratic party tied up in a scandal right now?

All of the NJ's democratic congressional delegation.

[Verily]

Sucks for Lautenberg.  Is there any New Jersey Democrat who isn't so tainted that they couldn't take up the reigns in this race or is everyone associated with the NJ Democratic party tied up in a scandal right now?

You'd have to pry the nomination from Lautenberg's cold, dead hands.  Literally.

More or less. But, theoretically, there are five Democratic congressmen interested in the nomination (Andrews, Pallone, Holt, Rothman and Pascrell).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Sucks for Lautenberg.  Is there any New Jersey Democrat who isn't so tainted that they couldn't take up the reigns in this race or is everyone associated with the NJ Democratic party tied up in a scandal right now?

You'd have to pry the nomination from Lautenberg's cold, dead hands.  Literally.

More or less. But, theoretically, there are five Democratic congressmen interested in the nomination (Andrews, Pallone, Holt, Rothman and Pascrell).

I'm sure Payne and Sires would love the nomination themselves, but they're at least realistic about their chances.  And it should be clear by now that Pallone is a little pu*** and would never risk his seat for higher office unless a Senate seat was handed to him on a silver platter.  (And it essentially was back in 2002.)

[Lief 🗽]

A NJ poll showing a Republican three points behind 12 months before the election?

Yeah, Lautenberg's going to win.

[Gabu]

25% undecided?

Considering that this is New Jersey, this pretty much guarantees Lautenberg victory, given that undecideds in New Jersey seem to all go "hmm, should I vote to re-elect the Democrat, or shouldn't I?  ...Yeah, I will."

[defe07]

This might be a dumb question but are there any third party or independent candidates running for this seat?

[Conan]

This might be a dumb question but are there any third party or independent candidates running for this seat?

Theres always at least 5 insignificant independent/3rd party candidates running.

[Verily]

This might be a dumb question but are there any third party or independent candidates running for this seat?

Theres always at least 5 insignificant independent/3rd party candidates running.

Yup. Ballot access is relatively simple in New Jersey, so we get the whole spectrum, from the New Jersey Allies in Christ to the Socialist Workers Party.

25% undecided?

Considering that this is New Jersey, this pretty much guarantees Lautenberg victory, given that undecideds in New Jersey seem to all go "hmm, should I vote to re-elect the Democrat, or shouldn't I?  ...Yeah, I will."

It's more like, "I really don't like that Democrat. I won't vote for him." A week before the election, "But I don't like that Republican, either. So I'll just vote for the Democrat."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

25% undecided?

Considering that this is New Jersey, this pretty much guarantees Lautenberg victory, given that undecideds in New Jersey seem to all go "hmm, should I vote to re-elect the Democrat, or shouldn't I?  ...Yeah, I will."

Well, given that the Republican candidate wasn't named in the poll, I think it's understandable for a significant portion of the electorate to be "undecided."

[Conan]

This might be a dumb question but are there any third party or independent candidates running for this seat?

Theres always at least 5 insignificant independent/3rd party candidates running.

Yup. Ballot access is relatively simple in New Jersey, so we get the whole spectrum, from the New Jersey Allies in Christ to the Socialist Workers Party.

25% undecided?

Considering that this is New Jersey, this pretty much guarantees Lautenberg victory, given that undecideds in New Jersey seem to all go "hmm, should I vote to re-elect the Democrat, or shouldn't I?  ...Yeah, I will."

It's more like, "I really don't like that Democrat. I won't vote for him." A week before the election, "But I don't like that Republican, either. So I'll just vote for the Democrat."

It's more like Lautenbergs old and need to see him. The only case where I dont like the dem but hes better than the rep was Menendez. One election doesnt make a trend, Lautenberg has some good approvals in the two recent polls. Also, people didnt choose Corzine because they disliked Forrester.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This might be a dumb question but are there any third party or independent candidates running for this seat?

Theres always at least 5 insignificant independent/3rd party candidates running.

Yup. Ballot access is relatively simple in New Jersey, so we get the whole spectrum, from the New Jersey Allies in Christ to the Socialist Workers Party.

25% undecided?

Considering that this is New Jersey, this pretty much guarantees Lautenberg victory, given that undecideds in New Jersey seem to all go "hmm, should I vote to re-elect the Democrat, or shouldn't I?  ...Yeah, I will."

It's more like, "I really don't like that Democrat. I won't vote for him." A week before the election, "But I don't like that Republican, either. So I'll just vote for the Democrat."

It's more like Lautenbergs old and need to see him. The only case where I dont like the dem but hes better than the rep was Menendez. One election doesnt make a trend, Lautenberg has some good approvals in the two recent polls. Also, people didnt choose Corzine because they disliked Forrester.

Well, the trend for Lautenberg has never been great—how many Senator seeking a fifth term can you think of who have yet to win an election by more than 10%?  He got out of the 2000 race because of polls were showing Christie Whitman—at that point, an all-but-declared candidate for U.S. Senate—trouncing him.  He doesn't have a heck of a lot of appeal at the ballot box, but he's won regardless because of a long string of less-than-stellar opponents and an electorate who looks more favorably on Democrats than Republicans.

I do agree that Lautenberg has a lot of work to do in proving to the people of New Jersey that he's still capable of being a Senator.  He was given a free pass in 2002 and didn't show up to debate.  He can't do that this time, especially since his age will probably be the #1 issue on voters minds.

He was never a good debater to begin with, so if Republicans want to have a shot here, they need someone who can (1) run circles around him in debates, and (2) self-fund, because national Republicans aren't going to want to spend money here, even if polls do show a tight race.

If Lautenberg wants to win, he needs to cut a number of commercials showing him being an active Senator—not just delivering funds for New Jersey, but delivering funds for New Jersey while participating in a 5K 'fun run.'  (From what I've heard from Lautenberg's staff, I fully expect the octogenarian to go that route, too.)

[auburntiger]

Republicans will not win any statewide race in NJ...ever. The end.

[CollectiveInterest]

New Jersey is great for Dems.

Sometimes Republicans think they have a shot in the Garden State. They blow a bunch of money in Philly and NYC media markets. The GOP candidate loses.

Then the national GOP doesn't fund a Republican candidate who gets close. And the Republican loses.

Next the GOP begins the cycle again.

Prediction: money will be tight for Republicans in 2008. The money will go to defending dufus GOP incumbents rather than trying to knock-off Lautenberg.

But if the Republicans want to forego spending the money defending in states like Alaska, Idaho, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oregon, Kentucky, etc. that's OK with me too.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

New Jersey is great for Dems.
Prediction: money will be tight for Republicans in 2008. The money will go to defending dufus GOP incumbents rather than trying to knock-off Lautenberg.

That's why I think the race could be close, but only if the GOP is smart enough to nominate Anne Estabrook.  She's a moderate who can partially self-finance, and has the Kean Family connections for raising even more.

Pennacchio is a mediocre candidate, a couple notches too conservative, and will struggle to raise money.  Jon Bramnick is an intriguing candidate (at least so far as his charisma is concerned—I believe he's done stand-up before) and more moderate than "Mountain Man" Pennacchio, but still won't be able to raise the kind of money to compete.

[Conan]

New Jersey is great for Dems.
Prediction: money will be tight for Republicans in 2008. The money will go to defending dufus GOP incumbents rather than trying to knock-off Lautenberg.

That's why I think the race could be close, but only if the GOP is smart enough to nominate Anne Estabrook.  She's a moderate who can partially self-finance, and has the Kean Family connections for raising even more.

Pennacchio is a mediocre candidate, a couple notches too conservative, and will struggle to raise money.  Jon Bramnick is an intriguing candidate (at least so far as his charisma is concerned—I believe he's done stand-up before) and more moderate than "Mountain Man" Pennacchio, but still won't be able to raise the kind of money to compete.

I think Kean Jr. showed us last year that that name isnt really going to help them compete in fundraising.  Those Kean family connections were quite unimpressive.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

New Jersey is great for Dems.
Prediction: money will be tight for Republicans in 2008. The money will go to defending dufus GOP incumbents rather than trying to knock-off Lautenberg.

That's why I think the race could be close, but only if the GOP is smart enough to nominate Anne Estabrook.  She's a moderate who can partially self-finance, and has the Kean Family connections for raising even more.

Pennacchio is a mediocre candidate, a couple notches too conservative, and will struggle to raise money.  Jon Bramnick is an intriguing candidate (at least so far as his charisma is concerned—I believe he's done stand-up before) and more moderate than "Mountain Man" Pennacchio, but still won't be able to raise the kind of money to compete.

I think Kean Jr. showed us last year that that name isnt really going to help them compete in fundraising.  Those Kean family connections were quite unimpressive.

Kean wasn't able to outraise Menendez, but he was indeed able to raise enough money to "compete."

Bramnick and Pennacchio look like they'd struggle to hit $5 million total (and would probably be lucky to get to $3 million).