Thompson trend vis-a-vis Giuliani, according to RASMUSSEN

[bonncaruso]

Thompson alert:

According to Rasmussen, Thompson holds the national lead over Giuliani since September 10 and was tied with RG on September 9.

Actually, in the vast majority of Rasmussen polls, Thompson has had a narrow lead practically the entire time since July 17.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/daily_presidential_tracking_polling_history

So, the question is, is Rasmussen using fair polling techniques or is it simply, in spite of claiming absolutely fairness and equality, behaving like an extreme conservative hack?

Thoughts, you Giuliani fans out there?

[gorkay]

The national numbers, accurate or not, don't really matter because the nominations will be settled by the results of statewide races, and the nominations will probably be settled by the time most of the country's voters get to weigh in.

[jacob_101]

I've noticed that they usually have Thompson leading and other polling companies show Giuliani with a sizeable lead.  I really have no idea if it's a methodology problem or if they have some sort of agenda.

I do think from state polls, that Guiliani leads in bigger states such as FL CA NY etc, but Thompson leads in the smaller southern states.  Maybe other polling companies are getting Republican samples from mostly the larger states, who knows.

[Tender Branson]

Rasmussen may be right with their "Thompson is always slightly ahead of Giuliani nationally":

Imagine Thompson is leading Giuliani by 5% in all the states won by Bush and Giuliani is leading Thompson by 5% in all the states won by Kerry. Thompson will be ahead of Giuliani nationally because there are more declared Republicans in Bush states than Kerry states.

But national polls don´t matter. Sample size = 1000 -> Iowa -> 1/100 of US-population -> generic 10 people from Iowa incl. in the sample ...