Illinois House Thread

[muon2]

The 2008 Congressional races in IL are unusually busy next year. There are now three open GOP seats (IL-11, 14, 18) with primary contests looming for both parties in all three. In addition there are significant D primaries expected in two seats (IL-3 and 10), with the latter leading to an expected close contest in the general. And IL-8 will again be an interesting race with primaries on both sides, and the probable return of an independent in the race.

I'll try to use this to keep the forum updated on the latest news from IL.

[muon2]

The Joliet Herald had a good first look at some of the candidates talking about the race to succeed Weller in IL-11. Joliet is the biggest city in the district and its the the seat of Will County which makes up about half the vote in the district.

There's a new entrant into the IL-14 race on the R side named Rudy Clai. There's another story here.

The D primary to challenge Lipinski in IL-3 is heating up. Daily Kos has endorsed challenger Mark Pera. Another potential challenger is Gerald Bennett who's looking into specific transportation issues as he explores a run.

[ill ind]

  Illinois is indeed shaping up to have a banner year for U.S. House races.   I guess that makes up for what is looking to be a real lackluster U.S. Senate race.
 
  I'm quite suprised that no Dem has come forward to run against Peter Roskam (Ill 6) however given how close the 2006 race was in that District.

  I live in Ill 14 which has several announced candidates from both parties already. (I met a couple of the Dems at the last West chicago Railroad Days parade this past summer.  None of the GOP candidates was there as Hastert hadn't announced his retirement yet.)  Pending some future huge development, I see it as a GOP hold.  There is alot of rural area in the district which is quite conservative. I think that Linda Chapa LaVia would have made it close, but since she isn't running, I just do not see this one turning over.

  I am pretty unfamiliar with Ill-18, so I will not comment on it.

  Ill-11 was held by Dem George Sangmeister until 1994.  It has been redrawn as a more Republican district since then, but in an open race it is possible for a Dem to win--especially if they can get a big turnout in Joliet.  I still think the GOP will eek out a narrow win here.

  Right now, I see Mellisa Bean holding Ill-8 for the Dems.  None of the GOP candidates is very impressive at this point.  Somebody else-not Bill Scheurer--will be the Moderate Party candidate in the 8th--I read the name, but do not remember.  Scheurer's wife is running against Bean in the Dem primary however.  The Moderate Party is ballot qualified in the 8th, so there will indeed be a 3rd party presence there.

  Ill-10 will be a tossup with incumbent GOP Mark Kirk facing a well financed challenge from 1 of 2 Democratic challengers (Seals or Footlik).

  Ill-3 will remain Lipinski's.  As much as I would love to see someone else, this is one of the most 'machine contolled' districts out there, and the machine will pull out all the stops to get Lipinski reelected.  Phantom candidates--dead people voting-- If it looks like Lipinski may lose, God only knows what could turn up here!!

Ill Ind

[Brittain33]

There is alot of rural area in the district [IL-14] which is quite conservative

How much does it sway the district? In 2000, about 70% of the district lived in Kane and Kendall County, and those two counties have gained 120,000 people since then making them even more of the center of population.

[muon2]

There is alot of rural area in the district [IL-14] which is quite conservative

How much does it sway the district? In 2000, about 70% of the district lived in Kane and Kendall County, and those two counties have gained 120,000 people since then making them even more of the center of population.

A very rough breakdown from 2006 voting is 60% Kane, 10% Kendall, 10% DuPage, 10% DeKalb, 10% western counties.

[Boris]

Any news on IL-06, Muon? Any Dems lining up to challenge Roskam yet (although if the Dems couldn't take it in 06, I doubt they'll take in in 08)

I'm thinking Bean has the strong advantage in IL-08, but her seat may be in jeopardy in 2010 if/when there will be a backlash against the incumbent Democratic Presidential Administration.

[ill ind]

  In the 2006 election in district 14, Kane County represented 58% of the vote, Kendall 13%, DeKalb 10%, DuPage 7% and the remaining counties (Bureau, Henry, Lee, and Whiteside) 12%.

  However, I still do not see a Dem carrying this district.  Gov Blagojevich cruised to reelection in 2006, but just broke 40% of the vote in Kane, and fell just short of 40% in Kendall. (Kerry got 44% in Kane in 2004 and 38% in Kendall comparable to Blagojevich)  It is true that Kane and Kendall Counties are inching more Democratic, (in very tiny increments by the way) but there is no where near enough of a swing to make me belive that they will send a Dem Representative to Washington DC.  DuPage has been inching more Democratic for over 20 years, but still has yet to send a Dem to DC.

  DuPage is more Democratic than either Kane or Kendall, but makes up too small of a portion of the district.  Whiteside County voted against Hastert in 2006, but only represents 1.66% of the votes.

ill ind

[ill ind]

  Looks like the Dems pulled off a major recruiting coup in Illinois 11.  It appears that Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorsen is going to run to be the Dem candidate.  The 11th is slightly tilted towards the GOP, but the Dems getting a big name candidate in there this early is going to put this one squarely into the toss-up column.

ill ind

[CollectiveInterest]

Toss-up? IL-11?

Do the Republicans even have a candidate yet?

You can't beat somebody with nobody.

Any Republican with political sense knows 2008 is gonna be a tough year. So Republicans with the brains to beat Halvorson will be reluctant to enter the contest.

Until the GOP fields a serious candidate assume this seat will flip to Dems.

[MarkWarner08]

Toss-up? IL-11?

Do the Republicans even have a candidate yet?

You can't beat somebody with nobody.

Any Republican with political sense knows 2008 is gonna be a tough year. So Republicans with the brains to beat Halvorson will be reluctant to enter the contest.

Until the GOP fields a serious candidate assume this seat will flip to Dems.

Is IL-11 the AZ-08 of 2008?

[Adlai Stevenson]

Toss-up? IL-11?

Do the Republicans even have a candidate yet?

You can't beat somebody with nobody.

Any Republican with political sense knows 2008 is gonna be a tough year. So Republicans with the brains to beat Halvorson will be reluctant to enter the contest.

Until the GOP fields a serious candidate assume this seat will flip to Dems.

Is IL-11 the AZ-08 of 2008?

I think OH-15 could be.  A dead 50%-50% Bush district and the GOP is yet to recruit a candidate while the Democrats have already cleared the field for their candidate who got 49.76% of the vote in 2006. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

By Sam Youngman
October 03, 2007

Mark Pera, an assistant Cook County state’s attorney in Illinois, is running hard against Rep. Daniel Lipinski (D-Ill.) and has enlisted some serious party heavyweights to help him unseat the congressman.

Curiously enough, all those heavyweights traditionally have been aligned with Lipinski’s party.

NARAL Pro-Choice America last week endorsed Pera in this Democratic primary, making Lipinski the only Democrat on its target list so far. And a number of other groups, including pro-stem cell research groups, are joining in to help Pera unseat a congressman that many in the reliably Democratic district say is a Democrat in name only.

Pera has put up impressive fundraising numbers and said Tuesday he expects a stellar third quarter due to the efforts of the netroots. As The Hill reported this week, Pera raised $55,000 on ActBlue, hauling in $30,000 during the last week of the quarter.

Pera can add to that about $2,500 that NARAL’s political action committee contributed Friday when the group endorsed his bid.

NARAL political director Elizabeth Shipp said Pera approached her group earlier this year after making the decision to run.

While Shipp said the group is excited about going to work to help elect Pera, its target is Lipinski.

“We’re certainly going to take him on,” Shipp said of Lipinski.

In 2006, Shipp said NARAL had about 1,000 members on the ground in the district. This time around, she said it has about 2,500 members, supporters and activists ready to go to work.

“We’re starting to ramp up there,” she said.

As it did in 2006, NARAL is looking to focus on micro-targeting to sway pro-abortion rights voters in districts where they can swing an election.

The difference between Lipinski’s district and others the group targets, Shipp said, is that this time it will focus on pro-abortion rights Democratic voters instead of pro-abortion rights Republican and independent voters.

In that district, pro-abortion rights Democratic female voters come to about 47,000 households NARAL will be looking to “educate.”

Shipp said the endorsement and financial contribution were first steps. Organization members will soon go out in the field with a poll to identify voters they might be able to sway.

The congressman is opposed to abortion rights, and his critics, including Pera, said he “sits with the Democrats, but he consistently votes with George Bush on the issues.”

Pera describes himself as a pro-abortion rights, pro-stem cell research Democrat who is in favor of withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq.

He will start to try to inform voters in the district about these differences when he goes on TV — if all goes as planned, by the end of this month.

Pera declined to talk specifically about some of the groups supporting his candidacy, except to say, “people in general are angry.”

Despite the home-equity loan he and his wife took out to get their campaign rolling, Pera said his fundraising has been strong, and he “will have more than enough money to get our message out.”

A spokesman for Lipinski said the congressman is “just focused on doing the work for the people of the third district.”

In 2006, Lipinski took just more than half the Democratic primary vote, but his opposition was evenly split between two candidates, financial planner John Kelly and Cook County Assistant State’s Attorney John Sullivan, who took 25 and 20 percent, respectively.

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/democrat-lipinskis-primary-enemies-coming-from-his-left-2007-10-03.html

[minionofmidas]

I know Lipinski is pro life, but I didn't think he was generally a dino. As these Naral folks seem to claim. (I dislike the fact that he inherited his seat, though.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, but to NARAL not support their position on abortion = Dino.

Useful stuff on Lipinski here: http://www.vote-smart.org/bio.php?can_id=33692

[muon2]

The Chicago Tribune has numbers for many of the key races. The Capitol Fax Blog includes more detail.

[muon2]

A forum in IL-14 gave a quick peek at the R candidates. The Aurora Beacon News represents the largest city in the district and covered the Kendall County event.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[CollectiveInterest]

Jill Morgenthaler, colonel, USA (ret) is the Dem candidate. See WurfWhile, http://www.wurfwhile.com/blog/2007/10/14/businesswoman-mother-army-colonel-jill-morgenthaler-enters-il-6th-congressional-race/

[CollectiveInterest]

Dems can pick-up three to seven seats in Illinois.

[HardRCafé]

Reps can pick-up three to seven seats in Wyoming.

[Brittain33]

Dems can pick-up three to seven seats in Illinois.

How many incumbents are you expecting Alan Keyes to primary?

[muon2]

Dems can pick-up three to seven seats in Illinois.

Which two are you conceding? Why not go for all nine?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Dems can pick-up three to seven seats in Illinois.

Which two are you conceding? Why not go for all nine?

It's cause he's a realist, of course~!

[muon2]

Today is the first day to file for the 2008 election in IL. Here's the rundown on all the congressional filings. First day filings have no date listed. Others show the date of filing.

IL 1:
Bobby L. Rush (D, Inc) - objection overruled
William Walls III (D) 11/5 - objection overruled
Antoine Members (R)

IL 2:
Jesse L. Jackson Jr. (D, Inc)

IL 3:
Mark N. Pera (D)
Jim Capparelli (D)
Daniel William Lipinski (D, Inc) - objection overruled
Jerry Bennett (D)
Arthur J. Jones (R)
Michael Hawkins (R) 10/31
Raymond G. Wardingly (R) 10/31 withdrawn 11/13
Jerome Pohlen (G) 11/5[/i] - objection overruled
Richard B. Mayers (G) 11/5 - objection sustained

IL 4:
Luis V. Gutierrez (D, Inc)

IL 5:
Rahm Emanuel (D, Inc)
Alan Augustan (G) 11/5

IL 6:
Stan Jagla (D) 11/1 - objection overruled
Jill Morgenthaler (D) 11/5
Peter J. Roskam (R, Inc) 10/30

IL 7:
Danny K. Davis (D, Inc)
Robert Dallas (D) 11/2

IL 8:
Melissa Bean (D, Inc)
Randi Scheurer (D) 11/5
Jonathan Farnick (D) 11/5 - withdrawn 11/19
Steve Greenberg (R)
Kenneth W. Arnold (R)
Kirk Morris (R) 11/5
Iain Abernathy (Moderate Party) 11/5 - objection sustained

IL 9:
Janice D. Schakowski (D, Inc)
John Nocita (D) 11/5
Michael Benjamin Youmin (R) 11/1
Morris Shanfield (G) 11/5

IL 10:
Daniel J. Seals (D)
Jay K. Footlik (D)
Mark Steven Kirk (R, Inc)
David J. Kalbfleisch (G) 11/5 - objection sustained

IL 11:
Deborah "Debbie" Halvorson (D) 11/2
Timothy A. Baldermann (R) 11/5 - objection withdrawn
Jimmy Lee (R) 11/5
Terry Heenan (R) 11/5
Jason M. Wallace (G) 11/5

IL 12:
Jerry F. Costello (D, Inc)
Timmy Jay Richardson Jr (R) 11/5
Rodger W. Jennings (G) 11/5

IL 13:
Scott Harper (D)
Judy Biggert (R, Inc)
Sean O'Kean (R) 11/5
Steve Alesch (G) 11/5

IL 14:
John Laesch (D)
Jotham Stein (D)
Bill Foster (D)
Joe Serra (D) 11/5
Chris Lauzen (R)
Jim Oberweis (R)
Kevin Burns (R)
Michael J. Dilger (R) 11/1 - objection overruled

IL 15:
Steve Cox (D) 11/5
Timothy V. Johnson (R, Inc) 10/31

IL 16:
Robert G. Abboud (D)
Donald A. Manzullo (R, Inc)
Scott Summers (G) 11/5 - objection sustained

IL 17:
Phil Hare (D, Inc)

IL 18:
Dick Versace (D) 11/5 - withdrawn 12/21
John D. Morris (R)
Aaron Schock (R)
Jim McConoughay (R)

IL 19:
Joe McMenamin (D)
Daniel Davis (D)
Shirley Roney (D) 11/1 - objection sustained
John M. Shimkus (R, Inc)
Vic Roberts (G) 11/1

[MarkWarner08]

Dems can pick-up three to seven seats in Illinois.

Which two are you conceding? Why not go for all nine?

It's cause he's a realist, of course~!

Dems have a great shot at Weller's seat; the rest are toss-ups or worse.

[muon2]

The first Green Party candidate for Congress officially filed today. Vic Roberts filed for the 19th CD. The 10% result for the Green Party in the 2006 Governor's race allows the Greens the same ballot access as the major parties.