Illinois House Thread

[Adlai Stevenson]

By Aaron Blake
Posted: 02/06/08 01:19 PM [ET]

A close race in the Democratic primary for former Rep. Dennis Hastert’s (R-Ill.) seat could lead to a quandary for the party’s efforts to win and keep that district, as the second-place finisher is preparing to challenge the results.

Scientist Bill Foster has won the primary for the special election to fill the seat for the remainder of the 110th Congress, but he leads 2006 nominee John Laesch by fewer than 400 votes in the regular primary, which determines the nominee for November’s general election.

There was one more candidate in the general primary than in the special primary, and he appeared to take nearly all of his 8 percent from Foster.

If Laesch were to get the general primary result flipped, Foster, who is seen by national Democrats as a potentially strong contender for the seat, could ostensibly win the seat next month but not be the nominee in November.

A challenge to the result could also cause Foster additional headaches during the short five-week period before the special election, which will be held March 8.

Laesch spokeswoman Heidi Wetzel said the campaign is collecting information and will likely make an announcement on Thursday. Some county election boards have closed down due to severe weather in the area, making information-gathering difficult.

“We’re calling all of the counties, we’re gathering the information, and we haven’t really made any decisions yet,” Wetzel said. “We’re also calling to see what percentage of absentee ballots has come in because there’s still two weeks for that. We’re checking everything out.”

[MarkWarner08]

Seals' strong showing foreshadows an electoral nightmare for Kirk if Obama is the Democratic nominee. This could one of the few districts where coattails directly affect the outcome.  Kirk benefits from his  prodigious fundraising abilities (over $1.5 million in 2007 alone), his moderate voting record, the gerrymandered nature of this district, and his erudite manner, which is a good fit for this district, which is teeming with professionals.

[Mr.Phips]

Seals' strong showing foreshadows an electoral nightmare for Kirk if Obama is the Democratic nominee. This could one of the few districts where coattails directly affect the outcome.  Kirk benefits from his  prodigious fundraising abilities (over $1.5 million in 2007 alone), his moderate voting record, the gerrymandered nature of this district, and his erudite manner, which is a good fit for this district, which is teeming with professionals.

I agree with you here.  This is one seat where coattails would likely make the difference if Obama was the nominee.  I cannot say the same for Clinton, unless we are talking about coattails going the other way. 

[MarkWarner08]

Seals' strong showing foreshadows an electoral nightmare for Kirk if Obama is the Democratic nominee. This could one of the few districts where coattails directly affect the outcome.  Kirk benefits from his  prodigious fundraising abilities (over $1.5 million in 2007 alone), his moderate voting record, the gerrymandered nature of this district, and his erudite manner, which is a good fit for this district, which is teeming with professionals.

I agree with you here.  This is one seat where coattails would likely make the difference if Obama was the nominee.  I cannot say the same for Clinton, unless we are talking about coattails going the other way. 

We both agree that Hillary wouldn't help (and may hinder) the Democrat in IL-10 and OR-05. If only the rest of the party understood this...

[Mr.Phips]

Seals' strong showing foreshadows an electoral nightmare for Kirk if Obama is the Democratic nominee. This could one of the few districts where coattails directly affect the outcome.  Kirk benefits from his  prodigious fundraising abilities (over $1.5 million in 2007 alone), his moderate voting record, the gerrymandered nature of this district, and his erudite manner, which is a good fit for this district, which is teeming with professionals.

I agree with you here.  This is one seat where coattails would likely make the difference if Obama was the nominee.  I cannot say the same for Clinton, unless we are talking about coattails going the other way. 

We both agree that Hillary wouldn't help (and may hinder) the Democrat in IL-10 and OR-05. If only the rest of the party understood this...

This really frustrates me.  Hillary Clinton is an awful candidate that could cost Democrats House seats in a year they should be picking up several seats.  I am really beginning to wonder why higher up, politically smart folks in the party like Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Rahm Emanuel don't work to derail this trainwreck of a candidate. 

[MarkWarner08]

Seals' strong showing foreshadows an electoral nightmare for Kirk if Obama is the Democratic nominee. This could one of the few districts where coattails directly affect the outcome.  Kirk benefits from his  prodigious fundraising abilities (over $1.5 million in 2007 alone), his moderate voting record, the gerrymandered nature of this district, and his erudite manner, which is a good fit for this district, which is teeming with professionals.

I agree with you here.  This is one seat where coattails would likely make the difference if Obama was the nominee.  I cannot say the same for Clinton, unless we are talking about coattails going the other way. 

We both agree that Hillary wouldn't help (and may hinder) the Democrat in IL-10 and OR-05. If only the rest of the party understood this...

This really frustrates me.  Hillary Clinton is an awful candidate that could cost Democrats House seats in a year they should be picking up several seats.  I am really beginning to wonder why higher up, politically smart folks in the party like Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Rahm Emanuel don't work to derail this trainwreck of a candidate. 

I hope for the sake of the party that they'll speak up after March 4th. If Obama has an overall lead in delegates, I hope uncommitted superdelegates like Pelois and Emanuel step forward and put pressure on Clinton to drop out. If Pelosi publicaly called on Hillary to leave the race, that might have an impact similar to that of Rendell's public abandonment of Gore during the Flordia recount saga.

I agree with your previous comments about Schumer's odd support for Clinton. Why a brilliant strategist who understands Middle American much better than most Beltway Dems would back Clinton is incomprehensible. Hillary isn't even from New York!

The problem with this issue is that most primary voters either don't understand or don't care about control of Congress. I've tried convincing other Oregon Democrats of Clinton pernicious effect on our party's chances and they either roll their eyes, or claim that Obama will also elicit a strong turnout from the GOP base. It's pure lunacy to think that Republicans will hate Obama  like they Clinton. While nearly all Republicans will vote for McCain against Obama, the intensity of their support will be less than it would've been if the Democratic foe was a member of the dreaded Clinton family.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I just checked the numbers in the Lipinski race. His lead was larger than the vote of the Kossak-backed candidate.

[Brittain33]

The Republican nominee in IL-11, who was an underdog to begin with, has dropped out of the race. So far, there's only an alert from the wire services.

I can't believe the Republicans would effectively cede this seat with a sacrficial lamb of a candidate. But since whoever runs is going to have to do all of his own fundraising, is this race over?

[Sam Spade]

The Republican nominee in IL-11, who was an underdog to begin with, has dropped out of the race. So far, there's only an alert from the wire services.

I can't believe the Republicans would effectively cede this seat with a sacrficial lamb of a candidate. But since whoever runs is going to have to do all of his own fundraising, is this race over?

This story is quite true.  Politico reported on it, somewhere.

However, much like in IL-18 for the Democrats (though it hasn't been done there yet), the Republicans can now pick a candidate to replace him on the ballot.  Considering the way Halbermann was running (or not running) his campaign, they could potentially end up with a stronger candidate.  Or maybe it'll be another Alan Keyes.  Who knows?

[minionofmidas]

The Republican nominee in IL-11, who was an underdog to begin with, has dropped out of the race. So far, there's only an alert from the wire services.

I can't believe the Republicans would effectively cede this seat with a sacrficial lamb of a candidate. But since whoever runs is going to have to do all of his own fundraising, is this race over?

This story is quite true.  Politico reported on it, somewhere.

However, much like in IL-18 for the Democrats (though it hasn't been done there yet), the Republicans can now pick a candidate to replace him on the ballot.  Considering the way Halbermann was running (or not running) his campaign, they could potentially end up with a stronger candidate.  Or maybe it'll be another Alan Keyes.  Who knows?

This is the Illinois GOP. They'll probably recruit Harriet Myers.

[The Mikado]

Why would the essentially cede a seat like IL-11?  Are the Congressional GOP adapting Giuliani/Clinton tactics?

[minionofmidas]

Why would the essentially cede a seat like IL-11?  Are the Congressional GOP adapting Giuliani/Clinton tactics?

The Illinois GOP invented these tactics four years ago.

[Sam Spade]

The Republican nominee in IL-11, who was an underdog to begin with, has dropped out of the race. So far, there's only an alert from the wire services.

I can't believe the Republicans would effectively cede this seat with a sacrficial lamb of a candidate. But since whoever runs is going to have to do all of his own fundraising, is this race over?

This story is quite true.  Politico reported on it, somewhere.

However, much like in IL-18 for the Democrats (though it hasn't been done there yet), the Republicans can now pick a candidate to replace him on the ballot.  Considering the way Halbermann was running (or not running) his campaign, they could potentially end up with a stronger candidate.  Or maybe it'll be another Alan Keyes.  Who knows?

This is the Illinois GOP. They'll probably recruit Harriet Myers.

Would still be a better candidate than Alan Keyes.

[minionofmidas]

The Republican nominee in IL-11, who was an underdog to begin with, has dropped out of the race. So far, there's only an alert from the wire services.

I can't believe the Republicans would effectively cede this seat with a sacrficial lamb of a candidate. But since whoever runs is going to have to do all of his own fundraising, is this race over?

This story is quite true.  Politico reported on it, somewhere.

However, much like in IL-18 for the Democrats (though it hasn't been done there yet), the Republicans can now pick a candidate to replace him on the ballot.  Considering the way Halbermann was running (or not running) his campaign, they could potentially end up with a stronger candidate.  Or maybe it'll be another Alan Keyes.  Who knows?

This is the Illinois GOP. They'll probably recruit Harriet Myers.

Would still be a better candidate than Alan Keyes.

I just had to think of some name in a hurry. I didn't want to write "Dick Cheney", and Rumsfeld is Illinoian.

[Stranger in a strange land]

The Republican nominee in IL-11, who was an underdog to begin with, has dropped out of the race. So far, there's only an alert from the wire services.

I can't believe the Republicans would effectively cede this seat with a sacrficial lamb of a candidate. But since whoever runs is going to have to do all of his own fundraising, is this race over?

This story is quite true.  Politico reported on it, somewhere.

However, much like in IL-18 for the Democrats (though it hasn't been done there yet), the Republicans can now pick a candidate to replace him on the ballot.  Considering the way Halbermann was running (or not running) his campaign, they could potentially end up with a stronger candidate.  Or maybe it'll be another Alan Keyes.  Who knows?

This is the Illinois GOP. They'll probably recruit Harriet Myers.

Would still be a better candidate than Alan Keyes.

I just had to think of some name in a hurry. I didn't want to write "Dick Cheney", and Rumsfeld is Illinoian.

speaking of which, Rumsfeld was actually in the House back in the 60s.

[minionofmidas]

The Republican nominee in IL-11, who was an underdog to begin with, has dropped out of the race. So far, there's only an alert from the wire services.

I can't believe the Republicans would effectively cede this seat with a sacrficial lamb of a candidate. But since whoever runs is going to have to do all of his own fundraising, is this race over?

This story is quite true.  Politico reported on it, somewhere.

However, much like in IL-18 for the Democrats (though it hasn't been done there yet), the Republicans can now pick a candidate to replace him on the ballot.  Considering the way Halbermann was running (or not running) his campaign, they could potentially end up with a stronger candidate.  Or maybe it'll be another Alan Keyes.  Who knows?

This is the Illinois GOP. They'll probably recruit Harriet Myers.

Would still be a better candidate than Alan Keyes.

I just had to think of some name in a hurry. I didn't want to write "Dick Cheney", and Rumsfeld is Illinoian.

speaking of which, Rumsfeld was actually in the House back in the 60s.

And voted against the Civil Rights Act.

[Stranger in a strange land]

The Republican nominee in IL-11, who was an underdog to begin with, has dropped out of the race. So far, there's only an alert from the wire services.

I can't believe the Republicans would effectively cede this seat with a sacrficial lamb of a candidate. But since whoever runs is going to have to do all of his own fundraising, is this race over?

This story is quite true.  Politico reported on it, somewhere.

However, much like in IL-18 for the Democrats (though it hasn't been done there yet), the Republicans can now pick a candidate to replace him on the ballot.  Considering the way Halbermann was running (or not running) his campaign, they could potentially end up with a stronger candidate.  Or maybe it'll be another Alan Keyes.  Who knows?

This is the Illinois GOP. They'll probably recruit Harriet Myers.

Would still be a better candidate than Alan Keyes.

I just had to think of some name in a hurry. I didn't want to write "Dick Cheney", and Rumsfeld is Illinoian.

speaking of which, Rumsfeld was actually in the House back in the 60s.

And voted against the Civil Rights Act.

No he actually voted for it, as did most northern and midwestern Republicans, even the ones who had been McCarthyites only a few years before.

http://hnn.us/readcomment.php?id=50543

[Brittain33]

I think Keyes's rented apartment (the Illinois White House?) was in the pre-2002 version of this district. Regrettably, no longer.

[minionofmidas]

The Republican nominee in IL-11, who was an underdog to begin with, has dropped out of the race. So far, there's only an alert from the wire services.

I can't believe the Republicans would effectively cede this seat with a sacrficial lamb of a candidate. But since whoever runs is going to have to do all of his own fundraising, is this race over?

This story is quite true.  Politico reported on it, somewhere.

However, much like in IL-18 for the Democrats (though it hasn't been done there yet), the Republicans can now pick a candidate to replace him on the ballot.  Considering the way Halbermann was running (or not running) his campaign, they could potentially end up with a stronger candidate.  Or maybe it'll be another Alan Keyes.  Who knows?

This is the Illinois GOP. They'll probably recruit Harriet Myers.

Would still be a better candidate than Alan Keyes.

I just had to think of some name in a hurry. I didn't want to write "Dick Cheney", and Rumsfeld is Illinoian.

speaking of which, Rumsfeld was actually in the House back in the 60s.

And voted against the Civil Rights Act.

No he actually voted for it, as did most northern and midwestern Republicans, even the ones who had been McCarthyites only a few years before.

http://hnn.us/readcomment.php?id=50543

'kay, so I guess that was an urban legend. I tried verifying or falsifying it once, I seem to recall, but did't make much headway.

[MarkWarner08]

IL-14 is race to watch.  Democrat Foster is running ads excoriating Republican Oberweis on Iraq and the economy. Oberweis has responded by touting the usual Republican talking points, implying that Foster will "kill the economy" with his tax hikes. So far, Foster hasn't proposed a single tax increase -- but facts don't seem to matter in Congressional races.

This race also has national implications. McCain recently held a fundraiser for Oberweis that helped fill the House candidate's coffers to the tune of $250k. Foster is trying to tie Oberweis to McCain's controversial comments about an indefinite U.S military presence in Iraq. If Foster wins, Democrats will argue that McCain may actually be a liability for Republicans, even in districts that voted  for Bush by double-digit margins in 2004.

[Padfoot]

The Republican nominee in IL-11, who was an underdog to begin with, has dropped out of the race. So far, there's only an alert from the wire services.

I can't believe the Republicans would effectively cede this seat with a sacrficial lamb of a candidate. But since whoever runs is going to have to do all of his own fundraising, is this race over?

CQ politics has changed their rating of this race from tossup to Democratic favored in light of this news.

[MarkWarner08]

The Republican nominee in IL-11, who was an underdog to begin with, has dropped out of the race. So far, there's only an alert from the wire services.

I can't believe the Republicans would effectively cede this seat with a sacrficial lamb of a candidate. But since whoever runs is going to have to do all of his own fundraising, is this race over?

CQ politics has changed their rating of this race from tossup to Democratic favored in light of this news.

Plus the Democratic candidate is an A+ recruit. Barring a last minute recruiting coup (e.g., Stivers in OH-15), this race could be over before it begins.

[muon2]

The Republican nominee in IL-11, who was an underdog to begin with, has dropped out of the race. So far, there's only an alert from the wire services.

I can't believe the Republicans would effectively cede this seat with a sacrficial lamb of a candidate. But since whoever runs is going to have to do all of his own fundraising, is this race over?

CQ politics has changed their rating of this race from tossup to Democratic favored in light of this news.

Tim Baldermann was not getting any traction so the race wasn't looking good for the GOP in Nov, esp. if Obama is on the ticket. Halvorson is a very strong candiadte for the Dems in fundraising and name recognition, but whose votes in the Senate are closely linked to Gov Blagojevich, who is very much not popular in the district. Halvorson's role in the Senate this spring can cut both ways for her, so the GOP may wait a bit to find a candidate who might exploit the connection to the Gov.

[muon2]

IL-14 is race to watch.  Democrat Foster is running ads excoriating Republican Oberweis on Iraq and the economy. Oberweis has responded by touting the usual Republican talking points, implying that Foster will "kill the economy" with his tax hikes. So far, Foster hasn't proposed a single tax increase -- but facts don't seem to matter in Congressional races.

This race also has national implications. McCain recently held a fundraiser for Oberweis that helped fill the House candidate's coffers to the tune of $250k. Foster is trying to tie Oberweis to McCain's controversial comments about an indefinite U.S military presence in Iraq. If Foster wins, Democrats will argue that McCain may actually be a liability for Republicans, even in districts that voted  for Bush by double-digit margins in 2004.

This race is very tough to poll. The election is the first on a Saturday in IL, and it's so soon after the general primary that many in the electorate are not tuned in to another election. Ground game turnout will be a big factor, as will early voting GOTV efforts.

[MarkWarner08]

IL-14 is race to watch.  Democrat Foster is running ads excoriating Republican Oberweis on Iraq and the economy. Oberweis has responded by touting the usual Republican talking points, implying that Foster will "kill the economy" with his tax hikes. So far, Foster hasn't proposed a single tax increase -- but facts don't seem to matter in Congressional races.

This race also has national implications. McCain recently held a fundraiser for Oberweis that helped fill the House candidate's coffers to the tune of $250k. Foster is trying to tie Oberweis to McCain's controversial comments about an indefinite U.S military presence in Iraq. If Foster wins, Democrats will argue that McCain may actually be a liability for Republicans, even in districts that voted  for Bush by double-digit margins in 2004.

This race is very tough to poll. The election is the first on a Saturday in IL, and it's so soon after the general primary that many in the electorate are not tuned in to another election. Ground game turnout will be a big factor, as will early voting GOTV efforts.

Great points.  It's worth noting that Foster designed the GOTV software that propelled Patrick Muprhy to an upset win in PA-08. He should have an edge in that department.