TX-Senate-Research2000: Cornyn (R) leads Noriega (D) by 16

[Tender Branson]

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Rick Noriega, the Democrat, and John Cornyn, the Republican?

Cornyn (R) - 51%
Noriega (D) - 35%

If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you to reelect John Cornyn, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Cornyn?

Reelect - 40%
Consider - 15%
Replace - 35%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Cornyn?

Very favorable - 21%
Favorable - 25%
Unfavorable - 22%
Very unfavorable - 22%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job John Cornyn is doing as U.S. Senator?

Strongly approve - 22%
Approve - 23%
Disapprove - 20%
Strongly disapprove - 24%

The Research 2000 Texas Poll was conducted from September 24 through September 26, 2007. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. 

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/9/27/14642/2928

[Alcon]

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Rick Noriega, the Democrat, and John Cornyn, the Republican?

Cornyn (R) - 51%
Noriega (D) - 35%

If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you to reelect John Cornyn, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Cornyn?

Reelect - 40%
Consider - 15%
Replace - 35%

Ouch for Noriega.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, noticed that as well. I'd also note that on these figures, Cornyn doesn't seem quite impossible to beat. (though it'd take a strong candidate, and still be an uphill struggle). Which is more than I hoped for.

[Sam Spade]

Yeah, noticed that as well. I'd also note that on these figures, Cornyn doesn't seem quite impossible to beat. (though it'd take a strong candidate, and still be an uphill struggle). Which is more than I hoped for.

That's the reason why Cornyn's in Likely R and not in Safe R - I do have reasons for what I do (plus I know my home state) . 

Although you might be overplaying the chance by a decent bit, IMHO.  But still, it's very hard for Cornyn to get above 55%, but it's going to be very hard to get him under 50%.

[WalterMitty]

cornyn is a good senator.  why wouldnt texans reelect him?

noriega?  hah.  i thought he was in a miami prison for his crimes against panama.

[Lief 🗽]

I really hope Noriega or Watts make the race competitive. Cornyn is an atrocious Senator, and I'd like to see a Democrat actually have a chance (however slim it may be) at winning state-wide again.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I really hope Noriega or Watts make the race competitive. Cornyn is an atrocious Senator, and I'd like to see a Democrat actually have a chance (however slim it may be) at winning state-wide again.

I doubt the winning formula for a Democrat to win in Texas right now includes having a Hispanic surname.

[Eraserhead]

cornyn is a good senator.  why wouldnt texans reelect him?

How is it that you approve of him?

[Gabu]

cornyn is a good senator.  why wouldnt texans reelect him?

How is it that you approve of him?

Walter reflexively approves of every single politician who is unpopular.

[Kushahontas]

i really really like kay bailey hutchison as a senator and i honestly would vote for her if i were of age. hell my entire family of staunch democrats voted for her in 2006 and she does a damn good job.

cornyn, on the other hand *facepalms* i'd LOVE to see noreiga take the seat, but i know it being texas and it being a presidential year, it's going to be a VERY tough uphill battle. cornyn would probably win but there is still time to make this race a bit more competitive. idk. *crosses fingers*

[MarkWarner08]

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Rick Noriega, the Democrat, and John Cornyn, the Republican?

Cornyn (R) - 51%
Noriega (D) - 35%

If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you to reelect John Cornyn, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Cornyn?

Reelect - 40%
Consider - 15%
Replace - 35%

Ouch for Noriega.

So he's getting the baseline of a support.  One way to interpret this would be to say that 100% of anti-Cornyn people are voting for Noreiga.  While that's specious (some people who say "Replace" may prefer Cornyn over Noreiga and some "Reelect" folks may like Noriega), it does shows that Noreiga has room to grow. I wish the TX Democrats could run a charismatic Hispanic (Noreiga) with vast financial resources (Watts). Sadly, the last time the Democrats ran such a candidate, he had ties to the Mexican Mafia and George W. Bush.

[Sam Spade]

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Rick Noriega, the Democrat, and John Cornyn, the Republican?

Cornyn (R) - 51%
Noriega (D) - 35%

If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you to reelect John Cornyn, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Cornyn?

Reelect - 40%
Consider - 15%
Replace - 35%

Ouch for Noriega.

So he's getting the baseline of a support.  One way to interpret this would be to say that 100% of anti-Cornyn people are voting for Noreiga.  While that's specious (some people who say "Replace" may prefer Cornyn over Noreiga and some "Reelect" folks may like Noriega), it does shows that Noreiga has room to grow. I wish the TX Democrats could run a charismatic Hispanic (Noreiga) with vast financial resources (Watts).

Yes, baseline Dem support for any prosective Dem nominee in Texas is 35% against generic R, but if Noriega (or anyone else) were to win the Dem nomination, his support will at minimum move up to around 40%, maybe 2%-3% more b/c of the Hispanic surname.  I still think the race will end up somewhere around the Gramm-Morales number of 1996, probably slightly closer (2%-3%) or slightly less close (2%-3%), depending on how well Noriega campaigns

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Uh, the ties to GWB didn't kill Sanchez in Texas, especially not in 2002.  What didn't help Sanchez was the fact that he was an idiot with $700 million in cash who didn't know how to spend or advertise properly.  I certainly didn't vote for him that year.

[MarkWarner08]

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Rick Noriega, the Democrat, and John Cornyn, the Republican?

Cornyn (R) - 51%
Noriega (D) - 35%

If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you to reelect John Cornyn, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Cornyn?

Reelect - 40%
Consider - 15%
Replace - 35%

Ouch for Noriega.

So he's getting the baseline of a support.  One way to interpret this would be to say that 100% of anti-Cornyn people are voting for Noreiga.  While that's specious (some people who say "Replace" may prefer Cornyn over Noreiga and some "Reelect" folks may like Noriega), it does shows that Noreiga has room to grow. I wish the TX Democrats could run a charismatic Hispanic (Noreiga) with vast financial resources (Watts).

Yes, baseline Dem support for any prosective Dem nominee in Texas is 35% against generic R, but if Noriega (or anyone else) were to win the Dem nomination, his support will at minimum move up to around 40%, maybe 2%-3% more b/c of the Hispanic surname.  I still think the race will end up somewhere around the Gramm-Morales number of 1996, probably slightly closer (2%-3%) or slightly less close (2%-3%), depending on how well Noriega campaigns

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uh, the ties to GWB didn't kill Sanchez in Texas, especially not in 2002.  What didn't help Sanchez was the fact that he was an idiot with $700 million in cash who didn't know how to spend or advertise properly.  I certainly didn't vote for him that year.

I remember reading that his ties to Shrub helped depress base turnout (read: urban blacks). Sanchez ran a dismal campaign that was fatally wounded by his many business related scandals.

I wholeheardtely agree with your assesment of this race.  While Cornyn's not particuarly popular, it'll be expectionally hard for the Democrat to patch together a path to 50% +1. I don't like the Democrats' odds in Southern Senate seats in midterm years, which usually have higher base turnout, and I cannot remember the last time the Democrats defeated a Southern GOP Senator in a Presidential year.

Quick tangent: Would John Cornyn be the first Republican Senator from Dixie to lose reelection in a Presidential election cycle? If so, that would be a remarkable win for the Democrats.

[Sam Spade]

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Rick Noriega, the Democrat, and John Cornyn, the Republican?

Cornyn (R) - 51%
Noriega (D) - 35%

If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you to reelect John Cornyn, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Cornyn?

Reelect - 40%
Consider - 15%
Replace - 35%

Ouch for Noriega.

So he's getting the baseline of a support.  One way to interpret this would be to say that 100% of anti-Cornyn people are voting for Noreiga.  While that's specious (some people who say "Replace" may prefer Cornyn over Noreiga and some "Reelect" folks may like Noriega), it does shows that Noreiga has room to grow. I wish the TX Democrats could run a charismatic Hispanic (Noreiga) with vast financial resources (Watts).

Yes, baseline Dem support for any prosective Dem nominee in Texas is 35% against generic R, but if Noriega (or anyone else) were to win the Dem nomination, his support will at minimum move up to around 40%, maybe 2%-3% more b/c of the Hispanic surname.  I still think the race will end up somewhere around the Gramm-Morales number of 1996, probably slightly closer (2%-3%) or slightly less close (2%-3%), depending on how well Noriega campaigns

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uh, the ties to GWB didn't kill Sanchez in Texas, especially not in 2002.  What didn't help Sanchez was the fact that he was an idiot with $700 million in cash who didn't know how to spend or advertise properly.  I certainly didn't vote for him that year.

I remember reading that his ties to Shrub helped depress base turnout (read: urban blacks). Sanchez ran a dismal campaign that was fatally wounded by his many business related scandals.

I didn't look at the race precinct-by-precinct, but with Ron Kirk on the ballot, I would be kind of surprised if the urban black vote was that depressed.  Besides, Sanchez probably made up for it by pulling Presidential turnout in an off-year election in the border counties (which almost got Cuellar by Bonilla).

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Well, Texas is not the quintessential Southern state because of the suburban growth, but that's neither here nor there.

Jim Sasser beat Bill Brock in Tennessee in 1976.  That's the only one I can think of.

[MarkWarner08]

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Rick Noriega, the Democrat, and John Cornyn, the Republican?

Cornyn (R) - 51%
Noriega (D) - 35%

If the 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you to reelect John Cornyn, would you consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Cornyn?

Reelect - 40%
Consider - 15%
Replace - 35%

Ouch for Noriega.

So he's getting the baseline of a support.  One way to interpret this would be to say that 100% of anti-Cornyn people are voting for Noreiga.  While that's specious (some people who say "Replace" may prefer Cornyn over Noreiga and some "Reelect" folks may like Noriega), it does shows that Noreiga has room to grow. I wish the TX Democrats could run a charismatic Hispanic (Noreiga) with vast financial resources (Watts).

Yes, baseline Dem support for any prosective Dem nominee in Texas is 35% against generic R, but if Noriega (or anyone else) were to win the Dem nomination, his support will at minimum move up to around 40%, maybe 2%-3% more b/c of the Hispanic surname.  I still think the race will end up somewhere around the Gramm-Morales number of 1996, probably slightly closer (2%-3%) or slightly less close (2%-3%), depending on how well Noriega campaigns

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uh, the ties to GWB didn't kill Sanchez in Texas, especially not in 2002.  What didn't help Sanchez was the fact that he was an idiot with $700 million in cash who didn't know how to spend or advertise properly.  I certainly didn't vote for him that year.

I remember reading that his ties to Shrub helped depress base turnout (read: urban blacks). Sanchez ran a dismal campaign that was fatally wounded by his many business related scandals.

I didn't look at the race precinct-by-precinct, but with Ron Kirk on the ballot, I would be kind of surprised if the urban black vote was that depressed.  Besides, Sanchez probably made up for it by pulling Presidential turnout in an off-year election in the border counties (which almost got Cuellar by Bonilla).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well, Texas is not the quintessential Southern state because of the suburban growth, but that's neither here nor there.

Jim Sasser beat Bill Brock in Tennessee in 1976.  That's the only one I can think of.

Good call on Sasser -- I'd completely forgotten that one. Didn't Brock beat Gore's father?

 I read that minority turnout was lower than expected in some areas (surprising considering the D's supposed "Dream Team") and that some blacks simply abstained from the Gubernatorial election.  On second thought, that was just one of the multitude of factors that sunk Sanchez. Popular GOP President + Red State + weak Democratic Party + scandals for the Democratic candidate = GOP win.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Holy hell, I just noticed this poll was sponsored and paid for by Daily Kos.

[Lief 🗽]

John Edwards beat an incumbent in North Carolina in 1998, and I'd consider NC Dixie.

Holy hell, I just noticed this poll was sponsored and paid for by Daily Kos.

I'm not entirely sure where they get the money to do it, but I know they've paid for a few polls, like the Lieberman-Lamont rematch poll a few weeks ago.

[HardRCafé]

John Edwards beat an incumbent in North Carolina in 1998, and I'd consider NC Dixie.

Refresh my memory:  who were the Presidential nominees in 1998?

[Lief 🗽]

Haha, oops.

[WalterMitty]

bill brock..eh.  there is a flash to the past.

yes he did beat al gore sr. 

if im not mistaken he went on to serve in reagan's cabinet.  he also ran bob dole's 1988 presidential campaign.

he lost (big) to paul sarbanes in 2000...it must have been.

[Kushahontas]

John Edwards beat an incumbent in North Carolina in 1998, and I'd consider NC Dixie.

Refresh my memory:  who were the Presidential nominees in 1998?

LOL you beat me to it!

[memphis]

Sounds about right. Cornyn will lose only inner city Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and the Rio Grande Valley.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Sounds about right. Cornyn will lose only inner city Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and the Rio Grande Valley.

Cornyn comes from San Antonio and in 2002 he carried Bexar County 51%-47%. 

[memphis]

Sounds about right. Cornyn will lose only inner city Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and the Rio Grande Valley.

Cornyn comes from San Antonio and in 2002 he carried Bexar County 51%-47%. 

Given that he barely won the county, he'll probably lose the inner city. He's  a Republican, after all.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sounds about right. Cornyn will lose only inner city Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and the Rio Grande Valley.

Austin.