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jimrtex
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« on: September 30, 2007, 05:35:58 pm »
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Disatisfied with the date-jumping and front-loading and 10-ring circus atmosphere of the current primary schedule, the DNC and RNC announce that they are scrapping the current system, and instituting a new system where voters throughout the country can focus on just two candidates.  In addition, the candidates run only in a few select congressional districts so that they can concentrate on retail politics, rather than statewide or nationwide TV blitzes.

The first round consists of 5 regional primaries, 3 weeks apart.  Each region consists of 87 congressional districts, but only 45 of the CDs are used for this first round.

In each CD, two candidates from each party are paired up, and the voters of the CD choose between the two.  The candidates who fare best in these head to head matchups (ie have the best league record) will advance on to the second round. 

Within each region, a candidate will compete in only 9 CDs, facing a different opponent in each CD.

By the luck of the draw, the Southeast Region, stretching along the coast from Maryland to Mississippi, was selected for the first ever head-to-head primaries to be held on March 4, 2008.

The 45 CDs were arranged in 9 sub-regional groups of 5 CDs:

Maryland(4)-Northern Virginia(1)
Virginia(5)
North Carolina(5)
South Carolina(3)-SW North Carolina(2)
Georgia(5)
NE Florida (Jacksonville, Orlando,etc )(5)
S Florida (Miami, etc.)(5)
WC Florida (Tampa, etc.)(4)-South Alabama(1)
Alabama(3)-Mississippi(2)

Each candidate will compete in one CD within each group, with their opponent and CD drawn by lot.

Prior to the primary, each CD will host a head-to-head debate between its two candidates.  The debate schedule is arranged so that the candidates can travel across the region prior to election day, arranging additional campaign activities in the CDs that they are competing. 

The debate order of the sub-regions was chosen by lot as well, with the initial debates occuring on Feb 15 in 4 CDs in NE Florida and CD 2 in SE Georgia.  From there, they head northward through Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia, and Maryland.  They then jump to Alabama and Mississippi, followed by 4 CDs in the Tampa area plus CD 1 in SW Alabama, and finishing up on March 2 in South Florida.

Please check your CSPAN and local PBS listings for times in your area.  The sites of each debate are tentative.

The debate schedule and head-to-head matchups for the 1st Round Southeast regional primary:

Feb 15FloridaCD 4JacksonvilleGoreRichardsonF ThompsonGiuliani
FloridaCD 8OrlandoKucinichEdwardsHunterT Thompson
FloridaCD 15MelbourneBidenObamaBrownbackMcCain
FloridaCD 24Port OrangeDoddGravelGingrichRomney
GeorgiaCD 2ColumbusClintonVilsackHuckabeePaul
Feb 17GeorgiaCD 5AtlantaRichardsonClintonHuckabeeHunter
GeorgiaCD 6RoswellVilsackEdwardsMcCainPaul
GeorgiaCD 10AthensGoreBidenGingrichGiuliani
GeorgiaCD 11MariettaObamaGravelRomneyT Thompson
GeorgiaCD 12SavannahKucinichDoddBrownbackF Thompson
Feb 19North CarolinaCD 9CharlotteVilsackGravelGingrichHuckabee
North CarolinaCD 11AshevilleDoddRichardsonBrownbackPaul
South CarolinaCD 1CharlestonClintonObamaGiulianiRomney
South CarolinaCD 2ColumbiaKucinichGoreF ThompsonT Thompson
South CarolinaCD 4GreenvilleBidenEdwardsHunterMcCain
Feb 21North CarolinaCD 1Rocky MountDoddGoreHuckabeeT Thompson
North CarolinaCD 2FayettevilleKucinichRichardsonF ThompsonHunter
North CarolinaCD 4DurhamBidenGravelGingrichMcCain
North CarolinaCD 5Winston-SalemClintonEdwardsBrownbackGiuliani
North CarolinaCD 6GreensboroVilsackObamaPaulRomney
Feb 23VirginiaCD 3NorfolkEdwardsGravelHuckabeeRomney
VirginiaCD 4ChesapeakeDoddVilsackGingrichT Thompson
VirginiaCD 5DanvilleBidenRichardsonBrownbackHunter
VirginiaCD 6RoanokeGoreClintonF ThompsonPaul
VirginiaCD 9BlacksburgKucinichObamaGiulianiMcCain
Feb 25MarylandCD 2BaltimoreDoddBidenBrownbackT Thompson
MarylandCD 3BaltimoreClintonGravelHuckabeeMcCain
MarylandCD 7BaltimoreKucinichVilsackGingrichPaul
MarylandCD 8BethesdaGoreObamaF ThompsonRomney
VirginiaCD 8ArlingtonRichardsonEdwardsGiulianiHunter
Feb 27AlabamaCD 3AuburnRichardsonGravelF ThompsonGingrich
AlabamaCD 4GadsdenDoddClintonBrownbackHuckabee
AlabamaCD 7BirminghamGoreVilsackGiulianiT Thompson
MississippiCD 1TupeloKucinichBidenHunterPaul
MississippiCD 2JacksonEdwardsObamaMcCainRomney
Feb 29AlabamaCD 1MobileRichardsonObamaPaulT Thompson
FloridaCD 5Spring HillGoreGravelF ThompsonMcCain
FloridaCD 9ClearwaterKucinichClintonGiulianiHuckabee
FloridaCD 10St.PetersburgDoddEdwardsGingrichHunter
FloridaCD 11TampaBidenVilsackBrownbackRomney
Mar 2FloridaCD 16Port Saint LucieKucinichGravelMcCainT Thompson
FloridaCD 17MiamiRichardsonVilsackF ThompsonHuckabee
FloridaCD 21HialeahGoreEdwardsHunterRomney
FloridaCD 23Fort LauderdaleDoddObamaBrownbackGingrich
FloridaCD 25HomesteadBidenClintonGiulianiPaul

The second regional primary will be the West Regional Primary on March 25, 2008.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2007, 02:52:24 pm »
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The second regional primary will be held on March 25 in the West, including the Pacific, Great Basin, and Mountain states (Arizona and New Mexico are included in the South Central region).  61% of the CDs in this region are in California.

As in the Southeast, the 45 selected CD's are arranged in 9 groups of 5:

Colorado (3), Idaho (1), Montana (1)
Washington (5)
Alaska (1), Hawaii (1), Oregon (3)
Bay Area California (5)
Central California (5)
Los Angeles (5)
Los Angeles County (5)
Southern California (5)
Sierra California (2), Nevada (2), Utah (1)

By luck of the draw the last group consisting of two CDs in Nevada, one in Utah, and two in California (the two California CDs border Nevada) was selected to kick off the debate schedule which begins 3 days after the March 4 primary in the Southeast.

The candidates then proceed into the Mountain West (Wyoming was selected for the 3rd round), on to Washington state, then Oregon, Alaska, and Hawaii, and then proceeding for 5 debates in California proceeding from north to south.

As for the Southeast primary, debate locations are tentative.  Please check your CSPAN and local PBS listings for times in your area. 

March 7CaliforniaCD 4RosevilleKucinichGravelF ThompsonGiuliani
CaliforniaCD 25Santa ClaritaRichardsonVilsackHunterT Thompson
NevadaCD 2RenoGoreEdwardsBrownbackMcCain
NevadaCD 3HendersonDoddObamaGingrichRomney
UtahCD 2SandyBidenClintonHuckabeePaul
March 9ColoradoCD 1DenverDoddBidenGingrichHuckabee
ColoradoCD 4Fort CollinsClintonGravelBrownbackPaul
ColoradoCD 6CentennialKucinichVilsackGiulianiRomney
IdahoCD 1BoiseGoreObamaF ThompsonT Thompson
MontanaCD 1Great FallsRichardsonEdwardsHunterMcCain
March 11WashingtonCD 1EdmondsDoddGoreHuckabeeT Thompson
WashingtonCD 5SpokaneKucinichRichardsonF ThompsonHunter
WashingtonCD 6TacomaBidenGravelGingrichMcCain
WashingtonCD 8BellevueClintonEdwardsBrownbackGiuliani
WashingtonCD 9Federal WayVilsackObamaPaulRomney
March 13AlaskaCD 1AnchorageGoreRichardsonMcCainT Thompson
HawaiiCD 2HiloKucinichEdwardsF ThompsonHuckabee
OregonCD 1BeavertonBidenObamaHunterRomney
OregonCD 2MedfordDoddGravelBrownbackGingrich
OregonCD 3PortlandClintonVilsackGiulianiPaul
March 15CaliforniaCD 6Santa RosaRichardsonObamaHuckabeeRomney
CaliforniaCD 7VallejoGoreGravelGingrichT Thompson
CaliforniaCD 8San FranciscoKucinichClintonBrownbackHunter
CaliforniaCD 9OaklandDoddEdwardsF ThompsonPaul
CaliforniaCD 10AntiochBidenVilsackGiulianiMcCain
March 17CaliforniaCD 15San JoseRichardsonGravelF ThompsonGingrich
CaliforniaCD 17SalinasDoddClintonBrownbackHuckabee
CaliforniaCD 18ModestoGoreVilsackGiulianiT Thompson
CaliforniaCD 20FresnoKucinichBidenHunterPaul
CaliforniaCD 22BakersfieldEdwardsObamaMcCainRomney
March 19CaliforniaCD 23Santa BarbaraRichardsonClintonHuckabeeHunter
CaliforniaCD 27Los AngelesVilsackEdwardsMcCainPaul
CaliforniaCD 28Los AngelesGoreBidenGingrichGiuliani
CaliforniaCD 31Los AngelesObamaGravelRomneyT Thompson
CaliforniaCD 35Los AngelesKucinichDoddBrownbackF Thompson
March 21CaliforniaCD 34DowneyVilsackGravelPaulT Thompson
CaliforniaCD 37Long BeachDoddRichardsonF ThompsonMcCain
CaliforniaCD 38PomonaClintonObamaGiulianiHuckabee
CaliforniaCD 39LakewoodKucinichGoreGingrichHunter
CaliforniaCD 40FullertonBidenEdwardsBrownbackRomney
March 23CaliforniaCD 42Yorba LindaEdwardsGravelBrownbackT Thompson
CaliforniaCD 43FontanaDoddVilsackHuckabeeMcCain
CaliforniaCD 48IrvineBidenRichardsonGingrichPaul
CaliforniaCD 49OceansideGoreClintonF ThompsonRomney
CaliforniaCD 52San DiegoKucinichObamaGiulianiHunter
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« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2007, 07:30:44 pm »
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Outlaw primaries.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2007, 01:24:55 pm »
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The campaign moves on to the 3rd primary of the first round, on April 15 in the Northeast region that stretches from Maine southward to West Virginia and Delaware.

The 9 groups of 5 are:

Maine (1), New Hampshire (1), Eastern Upstate NY (3).  Vermont is skipped for the 1st round.
Massachusetts (5)
Connecticut (3), Rhode Island (1), Westchester NY (1)
Eastern NYC (3)
Western NYC (3), NE New Jersey (2)
New Jersey (4), Delaware (1)
Eastern Pennsylvania (5)
SW Pennsylvania (3), West Virginia (2)
Western NY (3), NW Pennsylvania

The debates start in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Westchester County, New York, and proceed in a clockwise circle, down into New York City, across the Hudson into New Jersey, the west across Pennsylvania, including 2 CDs in West Virginia.  The campaign then moves northward into Upstate New York, east across to Maine, and then finishing in Massachusetts.

March 28ConnecticutCD 1HartfordRichardsonObamaF ThompsonGingrich
ConnecticutCD 2NorwichGoreGravelBrownbackHuckabee
ConnecticutCD 3New HavenKucinichClintonGiulianiT Thompson
New YorkCD 18New RochelleDoddEdwardsHunterPaul
Rhode IslandCD 2CranstonBidenVilsackMcCainRomney
March 30New YorkCD 6QueensDoddGoreHuckabeeT Thompson
New YorkCD 7BronxKucinichRichardsonF ThompsonHunter
New YorkCD 10BrooklynBidenGravelGingrichMcCain
New YorkCD 16BronxClintonEdwardsBrownbackGiuliani
New YorkCD 17YonkersVilsackObamaPaulRomney
April 1New JerseyCD 8PatersonRichardsonGravelMcCainT Thompson
New JerseyCD 13NewarkDoddClintonF ThompsonHuckabee
New YorkCD 12BrooklynGoreVilsackHunterRomney
New YorkCD 14ManhattanKucinichBidenBrownbackGingrich
New YorkCD 15ManhattanEdwardsObamaGiulianiPaul
April 3DelawareCD 1WilmingtonDoddBidenBrownbackT Thompson
New JerseyCD 1CamdenClintonGravelHuckabeeMcCain
New JerseyCD 4TrentonKucinichVilsackGingrichPaul
New JerseyCD 5ParamusGoreObamaF ThompsonRomney
New JerseyCD 7EdisonRichardsonEdwardsGiulianiHunter
April 5PennsylvaniaCD 1PhiladelphiaVilsackGravelF ThompsonGiuliani
PennsylvaniaCD 2PhiladelphiaDoddRichardsonHunterT Thompson
PennsylvaniaCD 5State CollegeClintonObamaBrownbackMcCain
PennsylvaniaCD 7Drexel HillKucinichGoreGingrichRomney
PennsylvaniaCD 16LancasterBidenEdwardsHuckabeePaul
April 7PennsylvaniaCD 12JohnstownEdwardsGravelPaulT Thompson
PennsylvaniaCD 14PittsburghDoddVilsackF ThompsonMcCain
PennsylvaniaCD 18Bethel ParkBidenRichardsonGiulianiHuckabee
West VirginiaCD 1ClarksburgGoreClintonGingrichHunter
West VirginiaCD 2CharlestonKucinichObamaBrownbackRomney
April 9New YorkCD 26LockportKucinichGravelGingrichHuckabee
New YorkCD 27BuffaloRichardsonVilsackBrownbackPaul
New YorkCD 29ElmiraGoreEdwardsGiulianiRomney
PennsylvaniaCD 3ErieDoddObamaF ThompsonT Thompson
PennsylvaniaCD 4Beaver FallsBidenClintonHunterMcCain
April 11MaineCD 1PortlandRichardsonClintonHuckabeeHunter
New HampshireCD 2ConcordVilsackEdwardsMcCainPaul
New YorkCD 20Saratoga SpringsGoreBidenGingrichGiuliani
New YorkCD 23WatertownObamaGravelRomneyT Thompson
New YorkCD 25SyracuseKucinichDoddBrownbackF Thompson
April 13MassachusettsCD 1AmherstGoreRichardsonHuckabeeRomney
MassachusettsCD 2SpringfieldKucinichEdwardsGingrichT Thompson
MassachusettsCD 6PeabodyBidenObamaBrownbackHunter
MassachusettsCD 8BostonDoddGravelF ThompsonPaul
MassachusettsCD 10BarnstableClintonVilsackGiulianiMcCain
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defe07
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« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2007, 09:02:43 pm »
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You know, I must say that you have some great ideas. This primary format is a good idea but I don't know how many voters would get how it works. I get it and it's simple, fair and very entertaining. For example, having a low-tier candidate campaigning in your Congressional District and this could be interesting. Until the number of Representatives increases though, I think this idea should be proposed to your Representative. Good stuff, keep it up!
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2007, 09:10:44 pm »
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It would also be a good idea to have some rotation of the regions every four years, just to avoid the jealousy of other regions when you have just one region always being the first to pick the nominee.   
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jimrtex
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2007, 03:32:04 am »
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You know, I must say that you have some great ideas. This primary format is a good idea but I don't know how many voters would get how it works. I get it and it's simple, fair and very entertaining. For example, having a low-tier candidate campaigning in your Congressional District and this could be interesting. Until the number of Representatives increases though, I think this idea should be proposed to your Representative. Good stuff, keep it up!
I think it would be hard to get people to understand why their CD got stuck with Kucinich vs. Gravel, while their neigjbors got Clinton v. Obama, or that they wouldn't vote until one of the later rounds after the field has been reduced, and they were actually more decisive.  There could be problems if a CD had a strong matchup for one party, and a weaker matchup for the other party, so maybe the two schedules could be totally independent (with the Democrats in the SE, while the Republicans were in the MW).

I think besides making possible more interesting debates,  there is less of a chance for an early knockout.  In the first 5 primaries over about 3 months, each candidate would only run in 45 CDs, and face another candidate in only 5 scattered around the country.

For example so far the matchups for Clinton v. Obama would be:

SC-1 (Charleston and coast)
CA-38 (Pomona, but stretches in blobs west as far as Montbello)
PA-5 (State College, but largely the rural northern part of the state).

Would the voters in each district be that swayed by the earlier results?   I think they would pretty much give it their own look.

The results would be presented just like standing for a sports league, showing wins and losses, and perhaps percentage of votes, so it would be easy for most to understand, if they were willing to accept the concept.

The schedule would probably be shown in a couple of different ways.  What I have shown is the debate schedule, but the elections would be held on the same date.  So you can imagine a map showing the region with the 45 CDs highlighted, and then a line drawn to a picture of the two candidates (perhaps with the two candidates appearing to be slightly turned towards each other).

Or you could show the 9 CDs that each candidate will contest, and their opponent in each.  The press could do profiles on each CD and how this will be the advantage to the candidates.

As the debates progress through the region, each set of 5 debates would get covered.  And of course the local press would do extensive coverage of "their" debate.

I'm not sure of the best way to draw up the schedule of CDs.  I kind of like choosing the CDs and matchups about a month before each primary, just a few days before the debates begin, but that probably isn't logistically feasible.   So maybe there would be a drawing perhaps 2 months in advance.

The congressman in each CD would host the debate for his party, and could choose the location; while the other party would choose their site.

I could have done a better job of selecting CDs within a state.  Each state received its fair share of CD.   45/87 is 51.7%, so a state with an even number of CDs, will have N/2 1st round matchups with some chance of an extra matchup.  But within a state, the CDs were picked randomly.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2007, 03:48:48 am by jimrtex »Logged
jimrtex
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2007, 03:42:17 am »
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It would also be a good idea to have some rotation of the regions every four years, just to avoid the jealousy of other regions when you have just one region always being the first to pick the nominee.   
In my example, the 5 regions were arranged in a 5 point star (MW at the top, NE to the right, SE to the lower right, SC to the lower left, and W to the left).    This sort of leads to the process jumping back and forth around the country.  I the selected the starting region and direction of traversing the star by lot. 

Within each region, I then grouped the 45 CDs into 9 groups of 5, somewhat keeping groups within a state, and also to arrange them somewhat in a loop.  The starting group and direction of loop traversal were drawn by lot.   In the southest, it really didn't work to make a loop, so that there is a jump between Mississippi and Maryland.
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« Reply #8 on: October 10, 2007, 02:21:11 am »
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The 4th primary on May 6 is in the South Central region stretching from Arizona to Kentucky and Tennessee, and from Missouri and Kansas to Texas and Louisiana.

The 9 subregions are:

Arizona (4) and New Mexico (1)
West and South Texas (5)
Central Texas and DFW (5)
Houston area (5)
Louisiana (4) and NE Texas (1)
Oklahoma (3) and Arkansas (2)
Tennessee (4) and C Kentucky (1)
W Kentucky (2) and E Missouri (3)
W Missouri (2) and Kansas (3)

The debate tour starts in E Missouri, including St. Louis and Western Kentucky and proceeds in a clockwise direction.

April 18KentuckyCD 1HopkinsvilleEdwardsGravelF ThompsonGingrich
KentuckyCD 2ElizabethtownDoddVilsackBrownbackHuckabee
MissouriCD 1FlorissantBidenRichardsonGiulianiT Thompson
MissouriCD 3St. LouisGoreClintonHunterPaul
MissouriCD 8Cape GirardeauKucinichObamaMcCainRomney
April 20KentuckyCD 6LexingtonVilsackGravelPaulT Thompson
TennesseeCD 2KnoxvilleDoddRichardsonF ThompsonMcCain
TennesseeCD 3ChattanoogaClintonObamaGiulianiHuckabee
TennesseeCD 6MurfreesboroKucinichGoreGingrichHunter
TennesseeCD 8JacksonBidenEdwardsBrownbackRomney
April 22ArkansasCD 1JonesboroDoddBidenGingrichHuckabee
ArkansasCD 4Pine BluffClintonGravelBrownbackPaul
OklahomaCD 1TulsaKucinichVilsackGiulianiRomney
OklahomaCD 2MuskogeeGoreObamaF ThompsonT Thompson
OklahomaCD 5Oklahoma CityRichardsonEdwardsHunterMcCain
April 24LouisianaCD 1MetairieRichardsonObamaHuckabeeT Thompson
LouisianaCD 2New OrleansGoreGravelF ThompsonHunter
LouisianaCD 3HoumaKucinichClintonGingrichMcCain
LouisianaCD 7LafayetteDoddEdwardsBrownbackGiuliani
TexasCD 4GreenvilleBidenVilsackPaulRomney
April 26TexasCD 8ConroeRichardsonClintonHuckabeeRomney
TexasCD 9HoustonVilsackEdwardsGingrichT Thompson
TexasCD 14GalvestonGoreBidenBrownbackHunter
TexasCD 18HoustonObamaGravelF ThompsonPaul
TexasCD 29HoustonKucinichDoddGiulianiMcCain
April 28TexasCD 3PlanoGoreRichardsonF ThompsonGiuliani
TexasCD 5MesquiteKucinichEdwardsHunterT Thompson
TexasCD 12Fort WorthBidenObamaBrownbackMcCain
TexasCD 17WacoDoddGravelGingrichRomney
TexasCD 20San AntonioClintonVilsackHuckabeePaul
April 30TexasCD 11MidlandDoddGoreMcCainT Thompson
TexasCD 13AmarilloKucinichRichardsonF ThompsonHuckabee
TexasCD 15McAllenBidenGravelHunterRomney
TexasCD 19LubbockClintonEdwardsBrownbackGingrich
TexasCD 28LaredoVilsackObamaGiulianiPaul
May 2ArizonaCD 2GlendaleRichardsonGravelBrownbackT Thompson
ArizonaCD 3PhoenixDoddClintonHuckabeeMcCain
ArizonaCD 4PhoenixGoreVilsackGingrichPaul
ArizonaCD 6MesaKucinichBidenF ThompsonRomney
New MexicoCD 2Las CrucesEdwardsObamaGiulianiHunter
May 4KansasCD 1SalinaKucinichGravelHuckabeeHunter
KansasCD 3Overland ParkRichardsonVilsackMcCainPaul
KansasCD 4WichitaGoreEdwardsGingrichGiuliani
MissouriCD 5Kansas CityDoddObamaRomneyT Thompson
MissouriCD 6St. JosephBidenClintonBrownbackF Thompson
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2007, 07:34:43 pm »
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The 5th and final primary of the first round is May 27 in the Midwest region which stretches from Ohio to Nebraska and points north.

The 9 subregions are:

S and C Ohio (5)
N Ohio (5)
SE Michigan (5)
W and C Michigan (3) and NE Wisconsin (2)
Minnesota (4) and South Dakota (1) (North Dakota will be used in Round 2).
Iowa (3) and SW Wisconsin (2)
Outstate Illinois (4) and Nebraska (1)
Chicagoland (5)
Indiana (5)

The debate tour starts in Outstate Illinois, except for Edwards and Obama who begin in Lincoln, Nebraska before flying to Chicago to join the other candidates for the 2nd group of debates.  The tour moves eastward into Indiana and Ohio for the next 3 debates, before heading northwest to the Detroit area.  It then proceeds westward across Michigan, jumping Lake Michigan to NE Wisconsin, and on to Minnesota and South Dakota.  The final debates before the primary are in Iowa and SW Wisconsin.

May 9IllinoisCD 8SchaumburgRichardsonGravelMcCainT Thompson
IllinoisCD 12BellevilleDoddClintonF ThompsonHuckabee
IllinoisCD 14AuroraGoreVilsackHunterRomney
IllinoisCD 15ChampaignKucinichBidenBrownbackGingrich
NebraskaCD 1LincolnEdwardsObamaGiulianiPaul
May 11IllinoisCD 3BerwynRichardsonObamaHuckabeeRomney
IllinoisCD 5ChicagoGoreGravelGingrichT Thompson
IllinoisCD 6WheatonKucinichClintonBrownbackHunter
IllinoisCD 10WaukeganDoddEdwardsF ThompsonPaul
IllinoisCD 13NapervilleBidenVilsackGiulianiMcCain
May 13IndianaCD 1GaryEdwardsGravelF ThompsonGingrich
IndianaCD 4LafayetteDoddVilsackBrownbackHuckabee
IndianaCD 6MuncieBidenRichardsonGiulianiT Thompson
IndianaCD 7IndianapolisGoreClintonHunterPaul
IndianaCD 8EvansvilleKucinichObamaMcCainRomney
May 15OhioCD 1CincinnatiKucinichGravelHuckabeeHunter
OhioCD 2CincinnatiRichardsonVilsackMcCainPaul
OhioCD 3DaytonGoreEdwardsGingrichGiuliani
OhioCD 15ColumbusDoddObamaRomneyT Thompson
OhioCD 18ZanesvilleBidenClintonBrownbackF Thompson
May 17OhioCD 9ToledoDoddGorePaulT Thompson
OhioCD 11ClevelandKucinichRichardsonF ThompsonMcCain
OhioCD 13AkronBidenGravelGiulianiHuckabee
OhioCD 14MentorClintonEdwardsGingrichHunter
OhioCD 17WarrenVilsackObamaBrownbackRomney
May 19MichiganCD 5FlintGoreRichardsonF ThompsonGiuliani
MichiganCD 10Sterling HeightsKucinichEdwardsHunterT Thompson
MichiganCD 12WarrenBidenObamaBrownbackMcCain
MichiganCD 13DetroitDoddGravelGingrichRomney
MichiganCD 15Ann ArborClintonVilsackHuckabeePaul
May 21MichiganCD 3Grand RapidsDoddBidenHuckabeeT Thompson
MichiganCD 4Mount PleasantClintonGravelF ThompsonHunter
MichiganCD 7JacksonKucinichVilsackGingrichMcCain
WisconsinCD 6OshkoshGoreObamaBrownbackGiuliani
WisconsinCD 8Green BayRichardsonEdwardsPaulRomney
May 23MinnesotaCD 1MankatoVilsackGravelGingrichHuckabee
MinnesotaCD 3PlymouthDoddRichardsonBrownbackPaul
MinnesotaCD 4St. PaulClintonObamaGiulianiRomney
MinnesotaCD 7MoorheadKucinichGoreF ThompsonT Thompson
South DakotaCD 1PierreBidenEdwardsHunterMcCain
May 25IowaCD 2Iowa CityRichardsonClintonBrownbackT Thompson
IowaCD 3Des MoinesVilsackEdwardsHuckabeeMcCain
IowaCD 4AmesGoreBidenGingrichPaul
WisconsinCD 2MadisonObamaGravelF ThompsonRomney
WisconsinCD 3La CrosseKucinichDoddGiulianiHunter
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2007, 04:54:53 pm »
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The 5th and final primary of the first round is May 27 in the Midwest region which stretches from Ohio to Nebraska and points north.

The 9 subregions are:

S and C Ohio (5)
N Ohio (5)
SE Michigan (5)
W and C Michigan (3) and NE Wisconsin (2)
Minnesota (4) and South Dakota (1) (North Dakota will be used in Round 2).
Iowa (3) and SW Wisconsin (2)
Outstate Illinois (4) and Nebraska (1)
Chicagoland (5)
Indiana (5)

The debate tour starts in Outstate Illinois, except for Edwards and Obama who begin in Lincoln, Nebraska before flying to Chicago to join the other candidates for the 2nd group of debates.  The tour moves eastward into Indiana and Ohio for the next 3 debates, before heading northwest to the Detroit area.  It then proceeds westward across Michigan, jumping Lake Michigan to NE Wisconsin, and on to Minnesota and South Dakota.  The final debates before the primary are in Iowa and SW Wisconsin.

May 9IllinoisCD 8SchaumburgRichardsonGravelMcCainT Thompson
IllinoisCD 12BellevilleDoddClintonF ThompsonHuckabee
IllinoisCD 14AuroraGoreVilsackHunterRomney
IllinoisCD 15ChampaignKucinichBidenBrownbackGingrich
May 11IllinoisCD 3BerwynRichardsonObamaHuckabeeRomney
IllinoisCD 5ChicagoGoreGravelGingrichT Thompson
IllinoisCD 6WheatonKucinichClintonBrownbackHunter
IllinoisCD 10WaukeganDoddEdwardsF ThompsonPaul
IllinoisCD 13NapervilleBidenVilsackGiulianiMcCain

I can just imagine the furor in IL when the list comes out and it shows all four majority-minority districts in Chicago (CDs 1, 2, 4, 7) are skipped. I can imagine Jesse organizing marches already.
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2007, 10:00:30 pm »
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I can just imagine the furor in IL when the list comes out and it shows all four majority-minority districts in Chicago (CDs 1, 2, 4, 7) are skipped. I can imagine Jesse organizing marches already.
1, 2 and 4 are used in the 2nd round.

But I really should have also done stratification within states, instead of just between states. 

I first created the 5 regions such that they were comprised of whole states and had 87 CDs.  I then determined the number of CDs used from each state for each round.  The first round used 45 CDs in each region, so Illinois had 19 * 45/87 = 9.83, or 9 CDs and a 83% chance of a 10th.  As it turned out, they only got 9. 

I then selected the 9 Illinois CDs at random.  But the first proces could have been repeated within Illinois.  So we could have subgroups of:

Minority-majority: 1,2,4,7
Chicagoland: 3,5,6,8,9,10,13
Chicagoland-Outstate: 11,14,15,16
Outstate: 12,17,18,19

In this case each of groups with 4 CDs should get 1.89, but they all got 2; and the group of 7 should get 3.32 but got 3.

We divide the groups of 4 into two pairs geographically and pick one from each pair:

CD 2, 4, 15, 16, 17, and 12 are picked and
CD 1, 7, 11, 14, 18, and 19 are excluded.

Then we split the Chicagoland group into a Chicago group (3,5,9) and Metro group (6,8,10,13).  The Chicago group ends up with 2, and the Metro group 1.

CD 3, 5, and 8 are picked
CD 9,            6, 10, 13 are excluded.

Working our way outward from Chicago: 2, 3, 4, and 5; 8, 15, and 16; 17 and 12.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2008, 01:15:32 am by jimrtex »Logged
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2007, 10:52:02 pm »
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We move on to the 2nd round, with the top 6 from each party advancing.  Known as the Select 6, "Super 6" - USA Today, or "Sixpack" - New York Daily News the candidates will once again compete in head-to-head matchups.

There are 5 primaries in the second round, each using 30 CDs from across the country.  In each primary, a candidate faces an opposing candidate from his party in 10 CDs across the country.  The candidate matchups switch for each primary.

For the 1st primary of the 2nd round on June 17th, the Democratic matchups are Clinton-Richardson, Dodd-Edwards, and Gore-Obama; while on the GOP side it is Giuliani-Hunter, Huckabee-McCain, and Romney-Thompson,F.

As in the 1st round, the candidates hold head-to-head debates in the weeks before the election, with the GOP and Democrats alternating dates and sites withing the 5 regions.  In the table for each matchup, the dates, sites, and candidates for each debate are shown; but the opposite party will also contest the corresponding CD.  For example, Duncan Hunter and Rudy Giuliani will compete for votes in TX-32 in North Dallas, though their South Central debate will be held at Johnson City, Tennessee; and similarly John Edwards and Christopher Dodd will seek votes in TN-1 in far eastern Tennessee, while their debate is in Dallas.  Edwards and Dodd might travel to Tennessee to campaign, and then fly down to Atlanta for their 2nd debate in the eastern suburbs.

CSPAN will carry all debates, the cable news networks will carry one debate each night.  Local broadcast stations may carry the debates of interest in their area on a tape delay.

June 6TexasCD 32DallasEdwardsDodd
June 7TennesseeCD 1Johnson CityHunterGiuliani
June 8GeorgiaCD 4DecaturEdwardsDodd
June 9North CarolinaCD 3JacksonvilleHunterGiuliani
June 10New YorkCD 5QueensEdwardsDodd
June 11New YorkCD 28Niagara FallsHunterGiuliani
June 12MichiganCD 14DetroitEdwardsDodd
June 13WisconsinCD 5WaukeshaHunterGiuliani
June 14IdahoCD 2Twin FallsEdwardsDodd
June 15CaliforniaCD 41RedlandsHunterGiuliani








June 6ArizonaCD 1FlagstaffMcCainHuckabee
June 7MissouriCD 9ColumbiaObamaGore
June 8MarylandCD 5BowieMcCainHuckabee
June 9GeorgiaCD 8MaconObamaGore
June 10PennsylvaniaCD 19YorkMcCainHuckabee
June 11ConnecticutCD 5WaterburyObamaGore
June 12IndianaCD 3Fort WayneMcCainHuckabee
June 13WisconsinCD 7WausauObamaGore
June 14CaliforniaCD 50EscondidoMcCainHuckabee
June 15OregonCD 5SalemObamaGore








June 6New JerseyCD 11MorristownRichardsonClinton
June 7New YorkCD 11BrooklynRomneyF Thompson
June 8MinnesotaCD 8DuluthRichardsonClinton
June 9IllinoisCD 2Calumet CityRomneyF Thompson
June 10CaliforniaCD 3Citrus HeightsRichardsonClinton
June 11WashingtonCD 2EverettRomneyF Thompson
June 12New MexicoCD 1AlbuquerqueRichardsonClinton
June 13MissouriCD 4SedaliaRomneyF Thompson
June 14MississippiCD 4GulfportRichardsonClinton
June 15North CarolinaCD 10HickoryRomneyF Thompson
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« Reply #13 on: November 23, 2007, 08:02:13 pm »
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The second round of the Select 6 primaries will be held on June 29.  As in the first round, pairs of candidates from each party contest 10 CD's from across the country.  In the two weeks prior to the primary, each pair hold a debate in 5 of the 10 CD's that they will contest.

The Democratic matchups are Obama-Edwards, Richardson-Gore, and Clinton-Dodd, while on the GOP side it is Thompson-Giuliani, McCain-Hunter, and Romney-Huckabee.

Please note a change in site for the Georgia 2 debate on February 15.  That debate has been moved to Albany, to free up Columbus for the Georgia 3 debate on June 24.

June 20MinnesotaCD 5MinneapolisF ThompsonGiuliani
June 21OhioCD 8HamiltonObamaEdwards
June 22MaineCD 2BangorF ThompsonGiuliani
June 23PennsylvaniaCD 9AltoonaObamaEdwards
June 24GeorgiaCD 3ColumbusF ThompsonGiuliani
June 25North CarolinaCD 13RaleighObamaEdwards
June 26TexasCD 6ArlingtonF ThompsonGiuliani
June 27ArkansasCD 2Little RockObamaEdwards
June 28CaliforniaCD 13FremontF ThompsonGiuliani
June 29CaliforniaCD 21VisaliaObamaEdwards








June 20North CarolinaCD 8ConcordMcCainHunter
June 21FloridaCD 6GainesvilleRichardsonGore
June 22TexasCD 21New BraunfelsMcCainHunter
June 23KentuckyCD 3LouisvilleRichardsonGore
June 24WashingtonCD 4YakimaMcCainHunter
June 25CaliforniaCD 5SacramentoRichardsonGore
June 26OhioCD 7SpringfieldMcCainHunter
June 27MichiganCD 2MuskegonRichardsonGore
June 28New JerseyCD 12East BrunswickMcCainHunter
June 29New YorkCD 2IslipRichardsonGore








June 20NevadaCD 1Las VegasRomneyHuckabee
June 21CaliforniaCD 46Huntington BeachClintonDodd
June 22TennesseeCD 4TullahomaRomneyHuckabee
June 23ArizonaCD 8TucsonClintonDodd
June 24GeorgiaCD 1WaycrossRomneyHuckabee
June 25FloridaCD 19Coral SpringsClintonDodd
June 26MassachusettsCD 7LexingtonRomneyHuckabee
June 27PennsylvaniaCD 13AbingtonClintonDodd
June 28MinnesotaCD 6St.CloudRomneyHuckabee
June 29IllinoisCD 4ChicagoClintonDodd
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« Reply #14 on: January 01, 2008, 07:42:43 pm »
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What do you all think of having rotating regional primaries (as laid out by jimrtex in this thread, but retaining Iowa and New Hampshire as the bellweather states candidates must go through before proceeding further?   
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« Reply #15 on: January 01, 2008, 10:31:24 pm »
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What do you all think of having rotating regional primaries (as laid out by jimrtex in this thread, but retaining Iowa and New Hampshire as the bellweather states candidates must go through before proceeding further?   

It's like reforming the Electoral College rather than getting rid of it; it's not a compromise, it's a waste of time.
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« Reply #16 on: January 01, 2008, 11:03:26 pm »
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I vote Gravel over Richardson on March 17!

Seriously, though...Brownback v. Hunter in SF?
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« Reply #17 on: January 02, 2008, 03:53:46 pm »
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jimrtex, good effort, but it violates the KISS rule.

How about this idea if we have to continue with primaries not on the same day.

In the preceding general election, the state with the highest turnout among the voting age population gets the right to be first primary. Think of the good points about this:

-If state had high turnout, it most likely meant the state was competitive, which means both parties would be catering to voters in around a 50/50 state.
-Their voters actually "care" if they were the highest turnout in the country, and so would treat with respect the primary process. Lets all remember that tomorrow, regardless of results, the overwhelming result will be the 94% of Iowans that just don't give a s***. If they don't care, why should we?
-Gives a reward to state parties that GOTV.
-Most likely to not be a large state for people that hate commercial big money politics.

So for this time around per Dave's numbers, the first primary would be Minnesota, with a turnout of 74%. (Maine had 73%, Wisconsin 72%.)

Maybe this could be modified a bit where you split the country in regions and take the highest turnout state in each region to be first.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2008, 03:59:50 pm by StateBoiler »Logged
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« Reply #18 on: January 11, 2008, 01:23:50 am »
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I vote Gravel over Richardson on March 17!

Seriously, though...Brownback v. Hunter in SF?
Why not?  They would go face to face in 5 CDs, VA-5 (Danville); CA-8 (San Francisco); MA-6 (Peabody); TX-9 (Houston); and IL-6 (Wheaton).   The results (wins and losses) would be added to their records in similar matchups against the other 8 candidates.   Each candidate would have results from 45 CDs in the first round, with the top 6 advancing to the second round.

While there might be a few oddities, over 45 matchups, the top candidates would prevail.
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« Reply #19 on: January 11, 2008, 01:31:06 am »
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jimrtex, good effort, but it violates the KISS rule.
You confuse the unfamiliar with complexity.

In each CD, voters would only choose between the two candidates in each party that drew that match-up.  This would let them concentrate on the two candidates, which simplifies the selection process for the voter.

Overall, the process is like following the baseball standings (before divisional plays, inter-league play, the designated hitter, and steroids).   Your alternative is more like the BCS.
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« Reply #20 on: January 11, 2008, 01:44:42 am »
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Here's my idea. Have 51 or however many days, each with a primary or caucus to be scheduled on that day. The order of the states is determined by an auction of how which fraction of their delegates they are willing to give up. For instance, the 1st place state might end up having to give up 100% of their delegates, the next state 90%, while the last few states wouldn't give up anything.

If a lot of states really wanted to be first, I could see allowing bids of over 100%, and so the first state would end up with NEGATIVE delegates, and the winner of that state would LOSE delegates.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2008, 01:47:15 am by ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ »Logged
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