KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

New Poll: Kentucky Governor by Insider Advantage on 2007-09-25

Summary: D: 45%, R: 35%, U: 20%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Verily]

Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0

That's July 11th; this is October 1st.

[Verily]

Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0

That's July 11th; this is October 1st.

Yes, and that was the last Insider Advantage poll before this one. It had Beshear 3 points ahead; he is now 10 points ahead in their polls. Beshear has gained seven points in this poll.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0

That's July 11th; this is October 1st.

Yes, and that was the last Insider Advantage poll before this one. It had Beshear 3 points ahead; he is now 10 points ahead in their polls. Beshear has gained seven points in this poll.

OK, but there have been a lot of polls in between.  Overall, this poll had him losing steam.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way.  Look at it like this:

5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6
5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9
5/13 - Jones Research - D +20
...
5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8
5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9
5/27 - Jones Research - D +8

How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one?  A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one.  This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is).

Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Insider Advantage polls have ALWAYS shown Beshear up by less than all other polls, so this is another outlier from a crappy poll, and as Verily has pointed out, is actually a gain for him.

My guess is IA doesn't push leaners at all. Beshear is picking up in their poll because leaners are now moving toward him with the election coming closer.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way.  Look at it like this:

5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6
5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9
5/13 - Jones Research - D +20
...
5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8
5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9
5/27 - Jones Research - D +8

How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one?  A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one.  This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is).

Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea.

I get the idea, but you're talking about a difference in weeks at most.  We're talking 3 months here.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way.  Look at it like this:

5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6
5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9
5/13 - Jones Research - D +20
...
5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8
5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9
5/27 - Jones Research - D +8

How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one?  A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one.  This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is).

Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea.

I get the idea, but you're talking about a difference in weeks at most.  We're talking 3 months here.

The point still stands...you need to also look at adjacent polls, which tell a markedly different story.

[Inks.LWC Supports Chuck Hagel]

Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way.  Look at it like this:

5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6
5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9
5/13 - Jones Research - D +20
...
5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8
5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9
5/27 - Jones Research - D +8

How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one?  A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one.  This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is).

Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea.

I get the idea, but you're talking about a difference in weeks at most.  We're talking 3 months here.

The point still stands...you need to also look at adjacent polls, which tell a markedly different story.

But you can't look at a trend when the polls are over 3 months apart.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I'd argue you can't necessarily look at a trend anyway, especially when other polls are showing a much different result than this one.

[Gabu]

But you can't look at a trend when the polls are over 3 months apart.

His point is that you can't directly compare the results of two polls done by two polling organizations if one of them has a history of being slanted towards one side or the other compared to every other poll.  Was that one poll showing Casey only up 4 very near the November 2006 election an example of Casey "losing steam"?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

But you can't look at a trend when the polls are over 3 months apart.

His point is that you can't directly compare the results of two polls done by two polling organizations if one of them has a history of being slanted towards one side or the other compared to every other poll.  Was that one poll showing Casey only up 4 very near the November 2006 election an example of Casey "losing steam"?

Yes, exactly what I meant - and also when one poll is frequently slanted toward sucking.