Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 28, 2016, 07:13:22 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections
| | |-+  2015 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
| | | |-+  KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam  (Read 5416 times)
Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35277
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.32, S: -1.91

P

View Profile WWW
« on: September 30, 2007, 11:40:46 pm »
Ignore

New Poll: Kentucky Governor by Insider Advantage on 2007-09-25

Summary: D: 45%, R: 35%, U: 20%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Logged


Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16749


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2007, 07:33:03 pm »
Ignore

Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0
Logged
Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35277
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.32, S: -1.91

P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2007, 03:18:06 pm »
Ignore

Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0

That's July 11th; this is October 1st.
Logged


Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16749


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2007, 03:27:04 pm »
Ignore

Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0

That's July 11th; this is October 1st.

Yes, and that was the last Insider Advantage poll before this one. It had Beshear 3 points ahead; he is now 10 points ahead in their polls. Beshear has gained seven points in this poll.
Logged
Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35277
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.32, S: -1.91

P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2007, 04:26:37 pm »
Ignore

Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0

That's July 11th; this is October 1st.

Yes, and that was the last Insider Advantage poll before this one. It had Beshear 3 points ahead; he is now 10 points ahead in their polls. Beshear has gained seven points in this poll.

OK, but there have been a lot of polls in between.  Overall, this poll had him losing steam.
Logged


Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30614
United States


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2007, 07:41:47 pm »
Ignore

Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way.  Look at it like this:

5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6
5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9
5/13 - Jones Research - D +20
...
5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8
5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9
5/27 - Jones Research - D +8

How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one?  A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one.  This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is).

Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea.
Logged

n/c
L'exquisite Douleur
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 77521
France


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2007, 09:20:28 pm »
Ignore

Insider Advantage polls have ALWAYS shown Beshear up by less than all other polls, so this is another outlier from a crappy poll, and as Verily has pointed out, is actually a gain for him.

My guess is IA doesn't push leaners at all. Beshear is picking up in their poll because leaners are now moving toward him with the election coming closer.
Logged

Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35277
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.32, S: -1.91

P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2007, 09:21:53 pm »
Ignore

Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way.  Look at it like this:

5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6
5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9
5/13 - Jones Research - D +20
...
5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8
5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9
5/27 - Jones Research - D +8

How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one?  A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one.  This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is).

Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea.

I get the idea, but you're talking about a difference in weeks at most.  We're talking 3 months here.
Logged


Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30614
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2007, 09:41:44 pm »
Ignore

Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way.  Look at it like this:

5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6
5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9
5/13 - Jones Research - D +20
...
5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8
5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9
5/27 - Jones Research - D +8

How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one?  A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one.  This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is).

Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea.

I get the idea, but you're talking about a difference in weeks at most.  We're talking 3 months here.

The point still stands...you need to also look at adjacent polls, which tell a markedly different story.
Logged

n/c
Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35277
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.32, S: -1.91

P

View Profile WWW
« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2007, 12:08:34 am »
Ignore

Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way.  Look at it like this:

5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6
5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9
5/13 - Jones Research - D +20
...
5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8
5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9
5/27 - Jones Research - D +8

How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one?  A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one.  This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is).

Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea.

I get the idea, but you're talking about a difference in weeks at most.  We're talking 3 months here.

The point still stands...you need to also look at adjacent polls, which tell a markedly different story.

But you can't look at a trend when the polls are over 3 months apart.
Logged


Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30614
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2007, 12:27:24 am »
Ignore

I'd argue you can't necessarily look at a trend anyway, especially when other polls are showing a much different result than this one.
Logged

n/c
Gabu
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28503
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.32, S: -6.52

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2007, 01:38:27 am »
Ignore

But you can't look at a trend when the polls are over 3 months apart.

His point is that you can't directly compare the results of two polls done by two polling organizations if one of them has a history of being slanted towards one side or the other compared to every other poll.  Was that one poll showing Casey only up 4 very near the November 2006 election an example of Casey "losing steam"?
Logged



"To me, 'underground' sounds like subway trains.  That's the only sound I associate with 'underground'." - Everett
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30614
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2007, 02:07:08 am »
Ignore

But you can't look at a trend when the polls are over 3 months apart.

His point is that you can't directly compare the results of two polls done by two polling organizations if one of them has a history of being slanted towards one side or the other compared to every other poll.  Was that one poll showing Casey only up 4 very near the November 2006 election an example of Casey "losing steam"?

Yes, exactly what I meant - and also when one poll is frequently slanted toward sucking.
Logged

n/c
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines