KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

New Poll: Kentucky Governor by Insider Advantage on 2007-09-25

Summary: D: 45%, R: 35%, U: 20%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0

That's July 11th; this is October 1st.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0

That's July 11th; this is October 1st.

Yes, and that was the last Insider Advantage poll before this one. It had Beshear 3 points ahead; he is now 10 points ahead in their polls. Beshear has gained seven points in this poll.

OK, but there have been a lot of polls in between.  Overall, this poll had him losing steam.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way.  Look at it like this:

5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6
5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9
5/13 - Jones Research - D +20
...
5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8
5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9
5/27 - Jones Research - D +8

How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one?  A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one.  This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is).

Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea.

I get the idea, but you're talking about a difference in weeks at most.  We're talking 3 months here.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way.  Look at it like this:

5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6
5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9
5/13 - Jones Research - D +20
...
5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8
5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9
5/27 - Jones Research - D +8

How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one?  A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one.  This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is).

Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea.

I get the idea, but you're talking about a difference in weeks at most.  We're talking 3 months here.

The point still stands...you need to also look at adjacent polls, which tell a markedly different story.

But you can't look at a trend when the polls are over 3 months apart.