Who is dumber on Tradesports?

[they don't love you like i love you]

Tough one.

[Verily]

Gore fanboys. At least Paul is a candidate.

[WalterMitty]

gore is a smarter bet.


there is a 99% or so chance that gore wont run.  but if he does, he bcomes a serious threat to win the nomination.

however slim those chances might be, theyre still much greater than the chances paul has at the gop nomination.

[Eraserhead]

Very tough one. I can't decide.

[Jake]

The tiny chance that Al Gore enters the race is worth spending the money on because as soon as he enters those people can literally make 20x what they paid in. Ron Paul is going nowhere at all in the Republican Primary.

[Sensei]

Paul for sure.

[Governor PiT]

Gore

[Mr. Morden]

Absolutely Gore.  Especially the ones picking him for VP.

We should have another thread like this on the question: "What's dumber: Gore at 10.0 in the Dem VP market or Michael Steele at 7.3 in the GOP VP market?"

[Boris]

Michael Steele at 7.3 in the GOP VP market?"

What the hell?

[Mr. Morden]

Michael Steele at 7.3 in the GOP VP market?"

What the hell?

Yes, he's at 7.3.  These are the top names in the GOP VP market:

Huckabee 14.0
Pawlenty 10.1
Romney 9.3
Jeb Bush 8.7
Giuliani 7.7
Fred Thompson 7.6
Michael Steele 7.3

[ag]

As they said: Gore, probably, won't run, but if he runs he might win.  So, there is a small but positive probability of Gore getting the nomination - if you are a risk-lover, that bid makes sens. Paul is not getting nomination under any circumstances, so, in the end of the things, that bid gives you a guaranteed payoff of zero: no risk, no gain.

However, given the presence of the irrational "Paul traders, investing in Paul stock makes sense: true, it won't pay, but there will be buyuers for it, and, there is some chance of the price getting pretty high between collapsing to its true value of exactly zero. Yes, it's a bubble, driven by some crazies - but who said you can't earn money in a bubble?

[Likely Voter]

there is no realistic scenario where Paul gets the nomination. There are 4 viable candidates (Thompson, McCain, Romney, Giuliani) so it is a bit of a stretch to imagine all 4 have some kind of scandal or eruption to open up the field. And even if they did he is too extreme in his views for the GOP (both anti war and pro gold standard...come on) and a more moderate republican would jump in.

Gore is only a long shot because he has not announced. If he were in the race he would have a very good shot at winning so the bet is not can he win, but will he jump in. Earlier this summer he was a good bet at a long shot, but that bet looks worse every day.

but the Paul people are clearly dumber

[NDN]

Paul, but only the ones who think he could actually win.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Paul, but only the ones who think he could actually win.

[Padfoot]

Gore fanboys are definitely the dumbest ones.  Ron Paul actually has some serious money coming his way right now and people are probably going to be paying a bit more attention to him.  I don't think he'll win but at least he is currently stirring the pot unlike Gore who hasn't even started up the stove on a campaign.

[NDN]

Paul, but only the ones who think he could actually win.

Indeed, Paul is actually quite visionary in many respects. I have the utmost respect for the man, despite the extremeness of a few of his positions. It's really a shame he has no chance, we could use someone like him.

[they don't love you like i love you]

However, given the presence of the irrational "Paul traders, investing in Paul stock makes sense: true, it won't pay, but there will be buyuers for it, and, there is some chance of the price getting pretty high between collapsing to its true value of exactly zero. Yes, it's a bubble, driven by some crazies - but who said you can't earn money in a bubble?

That's true, those who bid on Paul back when he was under 1.0 made a huge profit. Paul at 0.5 would pay 12 times that now. Still one has to wonder who are the idiots who are seriously bidding on him?

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

However, given the presence of the irrational "Paul traders, investing in Paul stock makes sense: true, it won't pay, but there will be buyuers for it, and, there is some chance of the price getting pretty high between collapsing to its true value of exactly zero. Yes, it's a bubble, driven by some crazies - but who said you can't earn money in a bubble?

That's true, those who bid on Paul back when he was under 1.0 made a huge profit. Paul at 0.5 would pay 12 times that now. Still one has to wonder who are the idiots who are seriously bidding on him?

You woefully overestimate the intelligence of an average customer in our commercial republic.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Gore is going to 0 before Paul is going to 0.

Besides, Paul has a greater chance of moving higher from here because of the "crazies."  You could still make money on that (though I wouldn't risk it—it's like trying to make money on the Alpaca market before that crashes).

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, Gore is now going up in the VP market.  He's up to 15.0, which puts him in third place, after Obama and Richardson.  So between the presidential and vice presidential markets, Intrade apparently believes there's about a 25% chance that Gore will be somewhere on the Democratic party's ticket next year(!).

[they don't love you like i love you]

Gore is going to 0 before Paul is going to 0.

Besides, Paul has a greater chance of moving higher from here because of the "crazies."  You could still make money on that (though I wouldn't risk it—it's like trying to make money on the Alpaca market before that crashes).

You actually can figure out when the Paul market will crash though, it's not like it will at any moment.