Cook Report: GOP surge in MA-05

[Mr.Phips]

I think Tsongas wins it by 52%-43%.  She will be saved by her 66%-29% margin in the Lowell/Lawrence area, where Democrats should be working to turn out every Democrat, while losing the rest of the district 44%-51%.  She will underperform badly in some areas.  For example, she will lose Dracut, Ogonowski's home area which John Kerry carried 52%-47% by 38%-56%.   She will also lose Tewksbury, which carry also won by 35%-61%.  After this, Tsongas is unlikely to be seriously challenged for the seat. 

[Mr.Phips]

I think Tsongas wins it by 52%-43%.  She will be saved by her 66%-29% margin in the Lowell/Lawrence area, where Democrats should be working to turn out every Democrat, while losing the rest of the district 44%-51%.  She will underperform badly in some areas.  For example, she will lose Dracut, Ogonowski's home area which John Kerry carried 52%-47% by 38%-56%.   She will also lose Tewksbury, which carry also won by 35%-61%.  After this, Tsongas is unlikely to be seriously challenged for the seat. 

Wow. Those are some precise predictions. Seriously, if Tsongas indeed wins by 52%-43%, you should be awarded the prognosticator of the century trophy.

Correction, she wins 53%-42%. 

[Mr.Phips]

If you're PO'd at the elites over Iraq, how does it make sense to elect a Republican?

I'm searching for some historical precedent for this kind of outcome. But I'm pretty sure that there have been past special elections in which the winning candidate represented the party that was unpopular at the time.

If I were Tsongas, I'd run solely on the War in Iraq. If she can aggressively differentiate her position on that and then pull a Connie Morella on Ognowski by tying him to the Southern conservatives in the GOP, then she'll be on much more favorable ground.

The problem is that Tsongas isn't anti-war enough to run solely on Iraq.  Truth is, Ogonowski opposes the war too, and there's not much ground there to differentiate herself in a way that'll move votes.

No doubt that Tsongas would love to tie Ognowski to the Southern GOP leadership, but the Southern GOP leadership isn't relevant in the House anymore.  That's part of the irony—if Democrats hadn't picked up the House last year, Republicans couldn't even play in this special election.

They would be if they won back the House. 

[Mr.Phips]

Cook was lazy for putting it in Solid Dem anyway after the primary.  Should have been Likely Dem.  Then again, he's always kind of lazy.

When exactly is this election anyway?  I haven't been following it that closely.

If by "lazy," you mean methodical and cautious, then I agree. BTW, David Wasserman has now replaced Amy Walter as the House race editor.

No, he was lazy.  Whenever you win your primary (although it was hotly contested) by only 4% and your opponent literally destroys his primary opponent, you can't put the race in safe, when the PVI is only about +8 to +9 Dem.

This is among other things that Cook does which show signs of not paying close enough attention to detail.  He's very intelligent, but lazy.

The district is D+11 and you must also consider who voted in the primary.  The Democratic primary attracted 60000 voters, while the Republican primary only attracted about 13000. 

[Mr.Phips]

A Republican picking up this seat will be good press for them, but as far as this district is concerned it's irrelevant.  Any Republican who takes this district in a special election is very likely NOT to hold it in 2008.

That's very true.  If Ogonowski does win, he can expect to have a strong Democratic opponent running against him before he is even sworn into office. 

[Mr.Phips]

A Republican picking up this seat will be good press for them, but as far as this district is concerned it's irrelevant.  Any Republican who takes this district in a special election is very likely NOT to hold it in 2008.

That's very true.  If Ogonowski does win, he can expect to have a strong Democratic opponent running against him before he is even sworn into office. 

Eileen Donoghue.  It has been stated on another thread about this race that Donoghue supporters are either going to not turnout to vote for Tsongas, or vote for Ogonowski, in order to allow Donoghue to run against him in 2008. 

Exactly.  Donoghue will almost be a shoo-in for this seat in 2008 if Ogonowski wins. 

[Mr.Phips]

Donoghue will almost be a shoo-in for this seat in 2008 if Ogonowski wins. 

Donoghue has to make it past a Democratic Primary first; one in which Tsongas (and a number of others) may very well run again.

If Tsongas actually managed to lose this race, I don't think she would want to embarass herself by running again.  Any Democrat who doesn't win this seat easily obviously has serious problems. 

[Mr.Phips]

when do they vote?

October 16th.

[Mr.Phips]

This has got to be an ultimate low for the Ogonowski campaign.  http://www.bluemassgroup.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=8977.  It looks like hes got the NRCC doing his dirty work for him now. 

[Mr.Phips]

This is a disgusting ad.  You don't exploit a tragedy in order to get elected. 

[Mr.Phips]

This is a disgusting ad.  You don't exploit a tragedy in order to get elected. 

It's about the death of his brother, and Ogonowski's subsequent leadership in stepping up for his family and his country.  "Disgusting" is not a word that comes to mind for me here.

Is there similar outrage over Carolyn McCarthy?

Im pretty sure McCarthy didn't use her tragedy in ads. 

[Mr.Phips]

This is a disgusting ad.  You don't exploit a tragedy in order to get elected. 

If he doesn't win the election, he could probably get a job in Giuliani's campaign...

I also heard that he might try to run against John Kerry if he comes close.