Cook Report: GOP surge in MA-05

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If you're PO'd at the elites over Iraq, how does it make sense to elect a Republican?

I'm searching for some historical precedent for this kind of outcome. But I'm pretty sure that there have been past special elections in which the winning candidate represented the party that was unpopular at the time.

If I were Tsongas, I'd run solely on the War in Iraq. If she can aggressively differentiate her position on that and then pull a Connie Morella on Ognowski by tying him to the Southern conservatives in the GOP, then she'll be on much more favorable ground.

The problem is that Tsongas isn't anti-war enough to run solely on Iraq.  Truth is, Ogonowski opposes the war too, and there's not much ground there to differentiate herself in a way that'll move votes.

No doubt that Tsongas would love to tie Ognowski to the Southern GOP leadership, but the Southern GOP leadership isn't relevant in the House anymore.  That's part of the irony—if Democrats hadn't picked up the House last year, Republicans couldn't even play in this special election.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If you're PO'd at the elites over Iraq, how does it make sense to elect a Republican?

I'm searching for some historical precedent for this kind of outcome. But I'm pretty sure that there have been past special elections in which the winning candidate represented the party that was unpopular at the time.

If I were Tsongas, I'd run solely on the War in Iraq. If she can aggressively differentiate her position on that and then pull a Connie Morella on Ognowski by tying him to the Southern conservatives in the GOP, then she'll be on much more favorable ground.

The problem is that Tsongas isn't anti-war enough to run solely on Iraq.  Truth is, Ogonowski opposes the war too, and there's not much ground there to differentiate herself in a way that'll move votes.

No doubt that Tsongas would love to tie Ognowski to the Southern GOP leadership, but the Southern GOP leadership isn't relevant in the House anymore.  That's part of the irony—if Democrats hadn't picked up the House last year, Republicans couldn't even play in this special election.

Quite a delicious irony for Republicans. Why do you think Tsongas can't pivot leftward on the War? She has no voting record or past statements on the issue, right?

Her opinion on the issue was thoroughly documented in the Democratic Primary, which was assumed to be the only election that mattered in MA-05.  If she "pivoted left," she'd get hammered for "flip-flopping."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Cook was lazy for putting it in Solid Dem anyway after the primary.  Should have been Likely Dem.  Then again, he's always kind of lazy.

When exactly is this election anyway?  I haven't been following it that closely.

October 16.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

too bad kerry healey doesnt reside in the district.  she could have won this race!

Please, she's the most hated woman in the Commonwealth.  She let a bunch of idiots run her campaign in 2006 and her reputation is permanently ruined for it.

the bottom line is that tsongas is a pretty lousy candidate.

she isnt very articulate.  and it is painfully obvious she is trying to get by on her late husband's name.

You know, ever since I saw Verily post about the fallacy of Romney's strength in Michigan, I've been thinking much the same could apply here to MA-05 and the Tsongas name.  It won the Primary for her, sure, but not by a huge amount—she kinda limped to the finish line.

After all, Paul Tsongas hasn't won office in 29 years; hasn't served in office in 23 years; and hasn't been on the ballot in 15 years.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Donoghue will almost be a shoo-in for this seat in 2008 if Ogonowski wins. 

Donoghue has to make it past a Democratic Primary first; one in which Tsongas (and a number of others) may very well run again.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

No, he was lazy.  Whenever you win your primary (although it was hotly contested) by only 4% and your opponent literally destroys his primary opponent, you can't put the race in safe, when the PVI is only about +8 to +9 Dem.

Thing is, Ogonowski was virtually unopposed in the Republican primary, as his opponent didn't raise any money. Tsongas had three or four competitors to deal with. I don't think you can really point to the primary performance of Ogonowski and Tsongas and make any conclusions about the general.

I think it's going to be close for Massachusetts, but the sheer Democratic strength of the district will help Tsongas win by about 8-10 points. Say, 53-44 Tsongas, with the rest going to the minor party candidates.

While it's fair to ignore the GOP primary results—there was no real race there, and the Mass GOP has a history of going all out to stop gadfly candidates from making the ballot in special election races when they have a real candidate running.

Still, I do think it's fair to look at the fractured Dem primary where Tsongas got a mere 35% of the vote, and see that as a potential weakness.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This has got to be an ultimate low for the Ogonowski campaign.  http://www.bluemassgroup.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=8977.  It looks like hes got the NRCC doing his dirty work for him now. 

Oh, no, no, no, no, no.  I recognize the style of that mailer.

It has Mass GOP written all over it.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

MA-5 is rich suburbs plus old industrial cities, yes?

Not quite "rich" suburbs. Those are mostly north and south of Boston; MA-05 lies to the west and northwest. Not poor, certainly; perhaps towards the upper end of middle class.

I'd say the absolute cream of the crop so far as pricey Boston suburbs go are (select areas of) Newton, Wellesley, and Weston, none of which are in the district.  Still, Wayland, Concord, and Sudbury are almost worth mentioning in the same breath.  I sure as hell couldn't afford to live there, and I've got a half million dollar damn condo.

Not too much of the area has a GOP State Rep right now (especially following the unfortunate loss of Sudbury's Sue Pope in 2006), but this area has been well represented by Republicans off and on over the last few decades.  (Paul Celluci was a State Senator from Hudson.)  Romney heavily (and unsuccessfully) targeted the area for GOP turnovers in 2004, though none of the seats were vacant.

The towns in the north have an exurban charecter and tend to be far more Republican than average—places like Chelmsford are where Boston commuters go when they're looking for a housing "bargain."  (At least, it looks like a bargain compared to Wellesley and Weston.)  Something like how NYC commuting "bargain hunters" moved out to PA-15.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

In case anyone cares, I crunched the 2006 numbers for MA-05.  The numbers are not entirely exact (because of Wayland being broken up), but are damn close.

2006 GUBERNATORIAL
D. Patrick (D) 50.7% (55.7% statewide)
K. Healey (R) 40.4% (35.3% statewide)
C. Mihos (I)  7.0% (7.0% statewide)
G. Ross (G) 1.9% (1.9% statewide)


2006 SENATE
T. Kennedy (D) 65.3% (69.3% statewide)
K. Chase (R) 34.7% (30.6% statewide)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This isn't his first ad that mentions 9/11.  Most of them have already.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This is a disgusting ad.  You don't exploit a tragedy in order to get elected. 

It's about the death of his brother, and Ogonowski's subsequent leadership in stepping up for his family and his country.  "Disgusting" is not a word that comes to mind for me here.

Is there similar outrage over Carolyn McCarthy?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This is a disgusting ad.  You don't exploit a tragedy in order to get elected. 

It's about the death of his brother, and Ogonowski's subsequent leadership in stepping up for his family and his country.  "Disgusting" is not a word that comes to mind for me here.

Is there similar outrage over Carolyn McCarthy?

Im pretty sure McCarthy didn't use her tragedy in ads. 

Carolyn McCarthy's entire candidacy was "her tragedy."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Carolyn McCarthy, using "her tragedy" to elect Mario Cuomo in 1994.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I just saw a Tsongas ad trying to paint Ogonowski as Bush-esque on Iraq.

Rather misleading (and ridiculous—"One vote can bring the troops home from Iraq—yours."), but it'd have to be to draw a serious distinction between the two candidates on the issue.