No, he was lazy. Whenever you win your primary (although it was hotly contested) by only 4% and your opponent literally destroys his primary opponent, you can't put the race in safe, when the PVI is only about +8 to +9 Dem.
Thing is, Ogonowski was virtually unopposed in the Republican primary, as his opponent didn't raise any money. Tsongas had three or four competitors to deal with. I don't think you can really point to the primary performance of Ogonowski and Tsongas and make any conclusions about the general.
I think it's going to be close for Massachusetts, but the sheer Democratic strength of the district will help Tsongas win by about 8-10 points. Say, 53-44 Tsongas, with the rest going to the minor party candidates.
