NM: Sen. Pete Domenici (R) to Retire Next Year

[© tweed]

Dems pick up Wilson's seat if she runs?

[Smash255]

Dems pick up Wilson's seat if she runs?

Very likely.  Kerry won the district buy about 3.5% in 04, when Bush won nationally by 2.5%.  Dem Preidential candidate likely takes the distict by 10% or so in 08, and the Incumbent Wilson barely held on last time around. 

[MarkWarner08]

Dems pick up Wilson's seat if she runs?

Depends on candidate recruitment. So far, the Democratic field is either weak financially or too far left. The Wall Street Journal today ran an editorial that spotlighted the electoral failures of deportationist Republicans in the 2006 election cycle. The author argued that Hispanics are willing to vote for a Republican (or Democrat) who supports strict border security, more enforcement funding, and penalties for those who violated the law, if the candidate opposes deportation and the separation of family members.

The sheriff that Sam Spade mentioned is in that hard-line camp; if he runs, expect the Hispanic vote, which saved Wilson in 2006, to swing back to the Democratic nominee.

[Tender Branson]

Great Opportunity for the Democrats

BTW: Do you Americans pronounce Chavez as "Shuh-Vess" or "Chaves" (like caves) ... ?

[Verily]

Great Opportunity for the Democrats

BTW: Do you Americans pronounce Chavez as "Shuh-Vess" or "Chaves" (like caves) ... ?

As in Spanish. SHAH-vez. (Well, depending on the accent, some Spanish speakers would say "CHAH-vez".) Americans generally know how to pronounce common Spanish words and names.

[Nutmeg]

Two Senators Udall elected in one year?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Great Opportunity for the Democrats

BTW: Do you Americans pronounce Chavez as "Shuh-Vess" or "Chaves" (like caves) ... ?

CHA-VEZZ

[Lief 🗽]

Tchuh-vez or Shuh-vez or Tchuh-vess or Shuh-vess

[Sam Spade]

Dems pick up Wilson's seat if she runs?

Depends on candidate recruitment. So far, the Democratic field is either weak financially or too far left. The Wall Street Journal today ran an editorial that spotlighted the electoral failures of deportationist Republicans in the 2006 election cycle. The author argued that Hispanics are willing to vote for a Republican (or Democrat) who supports strict border security, more enforcement funding, and penalties for those who violated the law, if the candidate opposes deportation and the separation of family members.

The sheriff that Sam Spade mentioned is in that hard-line camp; if he runs, expect the Hispanic vote, which saved Wilson in 2006, to swing back to the Democratic nominee.

FYI, Bernadillo County Sheriff is an elected position.

Also, Wilson was saved in 2006 by the crappiness of her opponent and her strength in the few outlying counties in this CD, not really by any Hispanic factor (b/c most of the people in the CD are Hispanic, lol).  Albuquerque is an odd place politically, I guess I'm going to have to drag Al backhere to explain how it works.    Like I said, it's too bad WMS left.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Two Senators Udall elected in one year?

With the retirement of Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM), three first cousins may be seeking U.S. Senate seats on the same day in 2008. Rep. Mark Udall (D-CO) is a shoo-in for the Democratic line in the race to succeed Sen. Wayne Allard, while his cousin, Rep. Tom Udall (D-NM) is considered the early favorite for the Democratic nomination in New Mexico. The third cousin, Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) is seeking re-election next year.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/10/03/three_first_cousins_running_for_senate_in_08.html

[MarkWarner08]

Dems pick up Wilson's seat if she runs?

Depends on candidate recruitment. So far, the Democratic field is either weak financially or too far left. The Wall Street Journal today ran an editorial that spotlighted the electoral failures of deportationist Republicans in the 2006 election cycle. The author argued that Hispanics are willing to vote for a Republican (or Democrat) who supports strict border security, more enforcement funding, and penalties for those who violated the law, if the candidate opposes deportation and the separation of family members.

The sheriff that Sam Spade mentioned is in that hard-line camp; if he runs, expect the Hispanic vote, which saved Wilson in 2006, to swing back to the Democratic nominee.

FYI, Bernadillo County Sheriff is an elected position.

Also, Wilson was saved in 2006 by the crappiness of her opponent and her strength in the few outlying counties in this CD, not really by any Hispanic factor (b/c most of the people in the CD are Hispanic, lol).  Albuquerque is an odd place politically, I guess I'm going to have to drag Al backhere to explain how it works.    Like I said, it's too bad WMS left.

I've repeatedly said that Madrid's debate gaffe was a large factor in her defeat. Contrary to public perception, she was not a weak candidate. She raised more money than any of Wilson's previous foes, she was an aggressive campaigner, finally, she was the only person in the history of the Earth to take a lead past the MOE over Rep. Heather Wilson.

I'd argue the deciding factor was the under discussed factor of Hispanic misgony. Many Hispanic voters in the district felt that Ms. Madrid was viotating the traditional norms of what a Hispanic woman could and couldn't do. You can laugh at this assessment, but NM politicos such as Joe Monahan concur with my view.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That type of logic hasn't held up in other races, and Madrid is really as white as I am.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Contrary to public perception, she was not a weak candidate.

This is true. She was a very weak candidate.

[Aizen]

Two Senators Udall elected in one year?

woot. go team udall.

[MarkWarner08]

Contrary to public perception, she was not a weak candidate.

This is true. She was a very weak candidate.

If she's very weak, than Richard Romero, John Kelly, and that Maloof guy must have had negative infinity abilities as candidates.

[Padfoot]

Two Senators Udall elected in one year?

woot. go team udall.

Udalls: The Kennedys of the Mountain West.  lol

[King]

I think Steve Pearce would be the best candidate for the Republicans.  Wilson and Chavez aren't very popular statewide nor is Denish (I think they've all been killed in at least one state race before).  Pearce would manage to win a good amount of votes and he comes from a district that the GOP can still hold onto (although barely) without him.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Contrary to public perception, she was not a weak candidate.

This is true. She was a very weak candidate.

Specifically:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dneOMY0N3mQ

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Contrary to public perception, she was not a weak candidate.

This is true. She was a very weak candidate.

If she's very weak, than Richard Romero, John Kelly, and that Maloof guy must have had negative infinity abilities as candidates.

You should not that I didn't say anything about previous candidates.

You should also note that Madrid was running in an election which saw a huge swing to the party she's a member of, in a seat that would have been a Democratic target had the election not been one dominated by a large swing to the Democrats.

You should also note that the demographics of this district are quite unlike the sort of district most likely to have a low swing in 2006.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

At the state level, at least, the Democrats are overwhelmingly dominant.

Which is actually one of Democrats biggest problems when it comes to winning NM-1.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The dangers for the NM Dems in NM-01 has never been the quality of the bench, but rather that the biggest machine-hack Dem politician (insert name) always seems to be the candidate to get out of the highly contested primary for that seat.  That turns off the Albuquerque Democrats who lean somewhat Independent anyway, especially when faced with a center-right Republican.  If WMS hadn't been driven out of here, he'd tell y'all this.

^^^

[Frodo]

It's official.

[ilikeverin]

Great Opportunity for the Democrats

BTW: Do you Americans pronounce Chavez as "Shuh-Vess" or "Chaves" (like caves) ... ?

As in Spanish. SHAH-vez. (Well, depending on the accent, some Spanish speakers would say "CHAH-vez".) Americans generally know how to pronounce common Spanish words and names.

Almost all Spanish speakers would say "CHAH-vays" (the s at the end is pronounced like an s), with the possible exception of Castilians who might use "CHAH-vayth".  So we pronounce it incorrectly, as usual

[Verily]

Great Opportunity for the Democrats

BTW: Do you Americans pronounce Chavez as "Shuh-Vess" or "Chaves" (like caves) ... ?

As in Spanish. SHAH-vez. (Well, depending on the accent, some Spanish speakers would say "CHAH-vez".) Americans generally know how to pronounce common Spanish words and names.

Almost all Spanish speakers would say "CHAH-vays" (the s at the end is pronounced like an s), with the possible exception of Castilians who might use "CHAH-vayth".  So we pronounce it incorrectly, as usual

"Vayz"? Definitely not.

tSAY-zar tCHAH-vez.

[ilikeverin]

Great Opportunity for the Democrats

BTW: Do you Americans pronounce Chavez as "Shuh-Vess" or "Chaves" (like caves) ... ?

As in Spanish. SHAH-vez. (Well, depending on the accent, some Spanish speakers would say "CHAH-vez".) Americans generally know how to pronounce common Spanish words and names.

Almost all Spanish speakers would say "CHAH-vays" (the s at the end is pronounced like an s), with the possible exception of Castilians who might use "CHAH-vayth".  So we pronounce it incorrectly, as usual

"Vayz"? Definitely not.

tSAY-zar tCHAH-vez.

tsay?  Now you're speaking nonsense, though English orthography is convoluted enough that we might be saying the same thing but in a different way .  IPA is: /sesaɾ ʧaβ̞es/

z is always pronounced like an s in Spanish, except in a few dialects.  e is always pronounced (not quite) like the "a" in "table".

In English, though, poor Cesar Chavez becomes /sizɚ ʃɑvɛz/, which isn't close at all.

(sorry if your computer doesn't properly format any of these; I can switch to X-SAMPA if you'd like)