NM: Sen. Pete Domenici (R) to Retire Next Year

[Sam Spade]

Obviously, if Bill Richardson were to run, he would most likely win.

On the GOP side:

If that doesn't happen, Wilson and Pearce are likely as strong as Udall, but for different reasons.

The real question for the GOP is whether Wilson and Pearce will duke it out mano y mano in the primary or agree to solidify behind one candidate or the other.

Pearce's district is the infamous Little Texas portion of New Mexico (with other parts added).  In the past, the district would often elect conservative Democrats and Pearce has a fairly strong opponent this year (I forget his name).  Still, if Pearce were to leave, the GOP bench is fairly strong in that area of the world and the district is favorable for them at this point, but probably only Lean R.  Pearce was pretty impressive last year all the while everyone else was getting creamed.

Wilson's CD is talked about so much I'll leave it for now.  Maybe the Dems can finally win over that seat for the first time since it was created.  There are legitimate Republican candidates there (Bernadillo County Sheriff Darren White is one that pops to mind immediately) - history is on their side, if anything is.

On the Dem side:

Denish and Chavez appeared in the past to be gearing up for Governor runs in 2010.  I think Chavez is weaker there and more likely to switch to Senate or NM-01, but the Dem field in NM-01 is already pretty crowded.  Chavez is likely as strong as Udall, and would probably cause more problems for Wilson than Pearce (I suspect).  I read that Patty Madrid might be considering a run - Republicans can hope that it's her.

The dangers for the NM Dems in NM-01 has never been the quality of the bench, but rather that the biggest machine-hack Dem politician (insert name) always seems to be the candidate to get out of the highly contested primary for that seat.  That turns off the Albuquerque Democrats who lean somewhat Independent anyway, especially when faced with a center-right Republican.  If WMS hadn't been driven out of here, he'd tell y'all this.

NM-02 can be won by a Democrat as well - and I think they already have a good candidate that I mentioned earlier.  In fact, I already mentioned the race earlier, no need to now. 

[Sam Spade]

Dems pick up Wilson's seat if she runs?

Depends on candidate recruitment. So far, the Democratic field is either weak financially or too far left. The Wall Street Journal today ran an editorial that spotlighted the electoral failures of deportationist Republicans in the 2006 election cycle. The author argued that Hispanics are willing to vote for a Republican (or Democrat) who supports strict border security, more enforcement funding, and penalties for those who violated the law, if the candidate opposes deportation and the separation of family members.

The sheriff that Sam Spade mentioned is in that hard-line camp; if he runs, expect the Hispanic vote, which saved Wilson in 2006, to swing back to the Democratic nominee.

FYI, Bernadillo County Sheriff is an elected position.

Also, Wilson was saved in 2006 by the crappiness of her opponent and her strength in the few outlying counties in this CD, not really by any Hispanic factor (b/c most of the people in the CD are Hispanic, lol).  Albuquerque is an odd place politically, I guess I'm going to have to drag Al backhere to explain how it works.    Like I said, it's too bad WMS left.

[Sam Spade]

In NM-01, the local political blogs seem to be saying that it is almost assured that Bernadillo County sheriff Darren White will run for the seat, as he is already talking to the big politicos in DC.  A couple of other GOP candidates including a State Rep. in the area (whose name escapes me) may be interested also, so he may not have clear sailing to the nomination.

On the Dem side, there were already at least 4 candidates in the race (that I recall), and I'm sure others will join in.  Rumors also have it that Patty Madrid may be interested in re-running for the seat (rumors also have her interested in the Senate seat too).  If she ran for NM-01, she would be the first Hispanic candidate to enter the contest, probably making her the early favorite IMHO.

[Sam Spade]

Confirmed:  Darren White (R) will be running for NM-01 open seat. 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/1007/GOP_lands_top_recruit_to_run_for_Wilsons_seat.html

Just in case no one's been aware, City Councilman Martin Heinrich (D) has been running for the seat for about five months and raised $180,000 in the last quarter.  He was considered the top challenger prior to Wilson's leaving, even though the usual suspects weren't exactly that happy.  Many other Democrats are mulling bids, including Patty Madrid, State Rep. Al Park, former State Health Department Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham,, heck even State Treasurer James B. Lewis, among many others...

[Sam Spade]

Confirmed:  Darren White (R) will be running for NM-01 open seat. 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/1007/GOP_lands_top_recruit_to_run_for_Wilsons_seat.html

Just in case no one's been aware, City Councilman Martin Heinrich (D) has been running for the seat for about five months and raised $180,000 in the last quarter.  He was considered the top challenger prior to Wilson's leaving, even though the usual suspects weren't exactly that happy.  Many other Democrats are mulling bids, including Patty Madrid, State Rep. Al Park, former State Health Department Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham,, heck even State Treasurer James B. Lewis, among many others...

Has anyone noticed that first-time candidates for congressional office with a background in prosecution or law enforcement tend to win tough House races? Mike Arcuri, Dave Reichert, and Brad Ellsworth all come to mind. Maybe it's the combo of charisma, self-possession, and confidence that helps them sway voters. Perhaps it's due to more superficial reasons.

A poi sci professor once noted that candidates for elective office with more attractive physical attributes has a higher chance of victory than their less attractive counterparts. This theory was later debunked with the 2005 election of Jean Schmidt to Congress.

Well, it's certainly not the most unreasonable theory I've ever heard (and I think I've heard it before as well).  When exactly is the last time an Attorney General has lost a run for an open Senate or Governor's seat, anyway?  I think it's been quite a while.

Anyway, as I pointed out before, White is a very legitimate candidate because he's won Bernadillo County-wide elections twice (which mirrors and encompasses the CD) and because of his position as sheriff, which means he appears a lot on TV and is thus a well-known face to the locals.  His status as an involved politico in Albuquerque GOP politics could be a negative (he chaired the Bush-Cheney reelection in 2004), but it could also be a positive (I don't see him being at any loss for funds).

I think you know as well as I do that most of the insider Dem NM politicos always had as their doomsday scenario that Domenici retired and Wilson replaces him, with White taking over NM-01.  I don't know whether I agree with the trajectory (or the likelihood at either end), but it is worth mentioning.

[Sam Spade]

Should've known if I said something off the cuff like that, I was going to get shot down when I forget something obvious (again and again).