NM: Sen. Pete Domenici (R) to Retire Next Year

[MarkWarner08]

GOP's negative feedback loop continues.

[MarkWarner08]

Other thoughts: Heather Wilson is set to announce her Senate run.

Looks like the Dems may win the Senate seat and NM-01.

[MarkWarner08]

Hasnt Richardson been encouraging Chavez to run?

If Heather Wilson goes for the Senate seat, Chavez may decide her House seat is a safer bet, which would open the door for Richardson to move into the Senate race after the early primaries.

Will the Democrats find a placeholder candidate until Richardson runs? Will Udall finally take the plunge? Will the Democrats lose another top VP candidate to the allure of the U.S Senate?

Looks like another thrilling year of Senate elections!

[MarkWarner08]

Is Ted Stevens next?

[MarkWarner08]

Dems pick up Wilson's seat if she runs?

Depends on candidate recruitment. So far, the Democratic field is either weak financially or too far left. The Wall Street Journal today ran an editorial that spotlighted the electoral failures of deportationist Republicans in the 2006 election cycle. The author argued that Hispanics are willing to vote for a Republican (or Democrat) who supports strict border security, more enforcement funding, and penalties for those who violated the law, if the candidate opposes deportation and the separation of family members.

The sheriff that Sam Spade mentioned is in that hard-line camp; if he runs, expect the Hispanic vote, which saved Wilson in 2006, to swing back to the Democratic nominee.

[MarkWarner08]

Dems pick up Wilson's seat if she runs?

Depends on candidate recruitment. So far, the Democratic field is either weak financially or too far left. The Wall Street Journal today ran an editorial that spotlighted the electoral failures of deportationist Republicans in the 2006 election cycle. The author argued that Hispanics are willing to vote for a Republican (or Democrat) who supports strict border security, more enforcement funding, and penalties for those who violated the law, if the candidate opposes deportation and the separation of family members.

The sheriff that Sam Spade mentioned is in that hard-line camp; if he runs, expect the Hispanic vote, which saved Wilson in 2006, to swing back to the Democratic nominee.

FYI, Bernadillo County Sheriff is an elected position.

Also, Wilson was saved in 2006 by the crappiness of her opponent and her strength in the few outlying counties in this CD, not really by any Hispanic factor (b/c most of the people in the CD are Hispanic, lol).  Albuquerque is an odd place politically, I guess I'm going to have to drag Al backhere to explain how it works.    Like I said, it's too bad WMS left.

I've repeatedly said that Madrid's debate gaffe was a large factor in her defeat. Contrary to public perception, she was not a weak candidate. She raised more money than any of Wilson's previous foes, she was an aggressive campaigner, finally, she was the only person in the history of the Earth to take a lead past the MOE over Rep. Heather Wilson.

I'd argue the deciding factor was the under discussed factor of Hispanic misgony. Many Hispanic voters in the district felt that Ms. Madrid was viotating the traditional norms of what a Hispanic woman could and couldn't do. You can laugh at this assessment, but NM politicos such as Joe Monahan concur with my view.

[MarkWarner08]

Contrary to public perception, she was not a weak candidate.

This is true. She was a very weak candidate.

If she's very weak, than Richard Romero, John Kelly, and that Maloof guy must have had negative infinity abilities as candidates.

[MarkWarner08]

Confirmed:  Darren White (R) will be running for NM-01 open seat. 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/1007/GOP_lands_top_recruit_to_run_for_Wilsons_seat.html

Just in case no one's been aware, City Councilman Martin Heinrich (D) has been running for the seat for about five months and raised $180,000 in the last quarter.  He was considered the top challenger prior to Wilson's leaving, even though the usual suspects weren't exactly that happy.  Many other Democrats are mulling bids, including Patty Madrid, State Rep. Al Park, former State Health Department Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham,, heck even State Treasurer James B. Lewis, among many others...

Has anyone noticed that first-time candidates for congressional office with a background in prosecution or law enforcement tend to win tough House races? Mike Arcuri, Dave Reichert, and Brad Ellsworth all come to mind. Maybe it's the combo of charisma, self-possession, and confidence that helps them sway voters. Perhaps it's due to more superficial reasons.

A poi sci professor once noted that candidates for elective office with more attractive physical attributes has a higher chance of victory than their less attractive counterparts. This theory was later debunked with the 2005 election of Jean Schmidt to Congress.

[MarkWarner08]

Confirmed:  Darren White (R) will be running for NM-01 open seat. 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/1007/GOP_lands_top_recruit_to_run_for_Wilsons_seat.html

Just in case no one's been aware, City Councilman Martin Heinrich (D) has been running for the seat for about five months and raised $180,000 in the last quarter.  He was considered the top challenger prior to Wilson's leaving, even though the usual suspects weren't exactly that happy.  Many other Democrats are mulling bids, including Patty Madrid, State Rep. Al Park, former State Health Department Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham,, heck even State Treasurer James B. Lewis, among many others...

Has anyone noticed that first-time candidates for congressional office with a background in prosecution or law enforcement tend to win tough House races? Mike Arcuri, Dave Reichert, and Brad Ellsworth all come to mind. Maybe it's the combo of charisma, self-possession, and confidence that helps them sway voters. Perhaps it's due to more superficial reasons.

A poi sci professor once noted that candidates for elective office with more attractive physical attributes has a higher chance of victory than their less attractive counterparts. This theory was later debunked with the 2005 election of Jean Schmidt to Congress.

Well, it's certainly not the most unreasonable theory I've ever heard (and I think I've heard it before as well).  When exactly is the last time an Attorney General has lost a run for an open Senate or Governor's seat, anyway?  I think it's been quite a while.

Anyway, as I pointed out before, White is a very legitimate candidate because he's won Bernadillo County-wide elections twice (which mirrors and encompasses the CD) and because of his position as sheriff, which means he appears a lot on TV and is thus a well-known face to the locals.  His status as an involved politico in Albuquerque GOP politics could be a negative (he chaired the Bush-Cheney reelection in 2004), but it could also be a positive (I don't see him being at any loss for funds).

I think you know as well as I do that most of the insider Dem NM politicos always had as their doomsday scenario that Domenici retired and Wilson replaces him, with White taking over NM-01.  I don't know whether I agree with the trajectory (or the likelihood at either end), but it is worth mentioning.

It would truly be nightmarish for Democrats to lose open Senate and House races in an election cycle where their prospects are good, if not great. The Democrats who brush off Wilson's chances simply because of her indirect connection to the convoluted U.S attorneys scandals, two words: watch out. This Rhodes Scholar has been a dogged worker her entire life -- counting her out now would be a grave misjudgment of her ability to preserve.

 The strongest (plausible, that means no Bill Richardson) Democratic candidate for the U.S Senate is Diane Denish. The problem for Democrats is that Ms. Denish has showed no interest in the Senate; moreover, she's raised over $1 million for a bid for the gubernatorial mansion. It's quite unlikely that she'd turn down a run for governor, a position that would make her the most powerful woman in NM history, for a bid for the Senate that she quite possibly would lose.  Unlike Claire McCaskill, who Chuck "The Architect" Schumer dissuaded from running for MO gov. in 2008, Denish has never lost statewide. 

Tom Udall, Diane Denish, and Bill Richardson are the three  Democratic candidates in NM who can beat Heather Wilson in a neutral political environment. For the DSCC, it all comes down to Big Bill's performance in the early primary states.