NM: Sen. Pete Domenici (R) to Retire Next Year

[Adlai Stevenson]

Two Senators Udall elected in one year?

With the retirement of Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM), three first cousins may be seeking U.S. Senate seats on the same day in 2008. Rep. Mark Udall (D-CO) is a shoo-in for the Democratic line in the race to succeed Sen. Wayne Allard, while his cousin, Rep. Tom Udall (D-NM) is considered the early favorite for the Democratic nomination in New Mexico. The third cousin, Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) is seeking re-election next year.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/10/03/three_first_cousins_running_for_senate_in_08.html

[Adlai Stevenson]

With Richardson and Udall out, I'd have to give the edge to Heather Wilson, unfortunately.

Her House seat, on the other hand, will be the Democrats' to pick up.

At the outset she might have the edge, but given that the election will be taking place against the national backdrop of the Presidential race I think the Democratic candidate will be favoured; the Democrats have a deep and wide bench for this seat.  And if neither Richardson nor Udall is the candidate (which is not even a given yet), then there are still the likes of Chavez, Denish, or even Madrid.  I agree that NM-1 is the Democrats to lose in 2008, however, given that it was drawn specifically to elect a Democratic candidate. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

If Madrid can't beat Wilson in a congressional race in a Democratic year, how will she beat Wilson statewide in a year that will be less favorable to Democrats?

Don't quote me on this, but I remember reading a post on here that if their 2006 race had been statewide then Madrid would probably have beaten Wilson.  The fact is that Heather Wilson had a remarkable talent at winning re-election in NM-1; she and her campaign team knew how to win in the district and how to mobilize certain voters and the issues to run on etc.  She had a proven track-record in NM-1 and was a battle-tested and entrenched incumbent.  But the dynamics would obviously have been transferred to a statewide race, and obviously will be so even more because its 2008, not 2006 (if she ended up facing Madrid). 

Personally, I think Madrid should probably run for NM-1 again rather than for the Senate.  If Richardson and Udall's word is good, then Chavez would be the best candidate.   

[Adlai Stevenson]

I'd add that NM-1 went 51-48 to Kerry while the state went only 50-49 to Bush. The state is actually a more favorable climate for Wilson to run in.

If Wilson runs in either next year, I believe she will face a tougher climate than she ever has. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

Sorry to do it again, and I know its not recent history, but Virginia seems to have a tradition of not electing its Attorney Generals as Governor or to the Senate.  In 1978 John Warner defeated Andrew Miller 50%-50% to win his first term.