NM: Sen. Pete Domenici (R) to Retire Next Year

[Jake]

New Mexico, on the other hand, is a lot like New England in the sense that they only vote GOP because of popular incumbents.  Once the incumbet retires, the Democrats gain the seat.

That's not true at all. New Mexico is split almost exactly down the middle partisan wise.

Rep. Joe Skeen (R) retired in 2002; replaced by Pearce (R)
Rep. Steve Schiff (R) died in 1998; replaced by Wilson (R)

[Jake]

At the state level, at least, the Democrats are overwhelmingly dominant. Veto-proof majority in the House, with approximately the same ratios as California.

That would be relevant if not for the 17th amendment.

[Jake]

I won't disagree with that. However, without Bill Richardson in the race the Republicans have two candidates (Pearce & Wilson) at least as good as the top two Democrats (Udall & Chavez). I also never disagreed that they are likely to lose the seat one of those Reps give up.

[Jake]

If Madrid can't beat Wilson in a congressional race in a Democratic year, how will she beat Wilson statewide in a year that will be less favorable to Democrats?

[Jake]

I'd add that NM-1 went 51-48 to Kerry while the state went only 50-49 to Bush. The state is actually a more favorable climate for Wilson to run in.