PoliticsNJ/Prall Report: Battleground '07

[MAS117]

PoliticsNJ released an updated version of the "Prall Report" today.

http://www.politicsnj.com/files/Prall100407.pdf

STATE SENATE
I agree with a lot of it, but I'm a bit more pessimistic about Democrats' chances to win the open 8th; I think Asselta's seat (District 1) should be "Leans Democratic;" and open 38th should be "Safe Democratic."

STATE ASSEMBLY
In the Assembly, I think Nelson Albano's seat should instead be "Leans Democratic" (perhaps with a movement arrow towards toss up); the second district seats should both have arrows pointing towards Leans Democratic; and in 12 and 14, arrows should be pointing towards "Leans Democratic" for the incumbents and towards "Leans GOP" for the two open seats.

Are we basically looking at no net change in the NJ legislature?

The net change will result in more seats for the Democrats in the new session.

[MAS117]

So, here's a "fun" question I was thinking about:

It looks like Sen. Asselta has made up some ground on Jeff Van Drew with the GSP issue—Van Drew is no long the shoo-in he was when he first announced.

It seems like he might give it a shot against LoBiondo right now, but declaring his candidacy for Congress while in the middle of a highly competitive State Senate race would be political suicide. 

No doubt he loses a lot of luster with a loss, so... if Asselta winds up winning the race, putting Van Drew out of a job, does he run against LoBiondo in '08?

I can not fathom a run by Van Drew for Congress if he loses the State Senate race. I just don't see how he will beable to put up numbers when he can't win his own State Senate district against an incumbent similar to LoBiondo.

[MAS117]

And it's not like Democrats have anyone better to run against LoBiondo—Albano is little more than Van Drew's shadow.

Agreed Van Drew is probably the only person right now that can put up a legit candidacy against LoBo.