Newfoundland Elections, October 9

[Bono]

A poll listed by wiki gives the PC Party 76%, Liberals 16% and NDP 7%.
Anyone got anything else? Also, what explains this huge PC popularity? The way the Premier has fought to keep oil revenues? Not that I'm complaining, on the contrary.

[Hash]

Williams is quite popular and they give him 46 out of 48 seats, with the NDP taking/holding 2.

Apparently Williams is a Newfoundland 'nationalist' that fights for the interest of Newfies and that seems popular.

[merseysider]

I have been taking an occasional look at the CBC's coverage on the net, as I have been to Newfoundland. Apparently the Tories have just won a seat unopposed after a Liberal withdrew. Overall it looks like a runaway victory for the Tories.

[Kevinstat]

And to think the province was governed by the Liberals as recently as 2003.

[minionofmidas]

Apparently Williams is a Newfoundland 'nationalist' that fights for the interest of Newfies and that seems popular.

Yep. And of course his party is both the most Conservative and the most anti-(federal) Conservative party to run.

[Verily]

Apparently Williams is a Newfoundland 'nationalist' that fights for the interest of Newfies and that seems popular.

Yep. And of course his party is both the most Conservative and the most anti-(federal) Conservative party to run.

Not so conservative that Danny Williams hasn't been campaigning against Stephen Harper and the federal Conservatives since Harper took office (and has endorsed the Liberals in the next general election). That's part of the reason for his popularity; Liberals in the province see him as very acceptable as he opposes the federal Conservatives.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A poll listed by wiki gives the PC Party 76%, Liberals 16% and NDP 7%.
Anyone got anything else? Also, what explains this huge PC popularity? The way the Premier has fought to keep oil revenues? Not that I'm complaining, on the contrary.

Any idea on the absentions\undecided voters?

I don't think I've ever seen a poll like this.. I'm merely wondering would he succeed over 50% of the population (ie. The Ultimate Mandate)

[Bono]

A poll listed by wiki gives the PC Party 76%, Liberals 16% and NDP 7%.
Anyone got anything else? Also, what explains this huge PC popularity? The way the Premier has fought to keep oil revenues? Not that I'm complaining, on the contrary.

Any idea on the absentions\undecided voters?

I don't think I've ever seen a poll like this.. I'm merely wondering would he succeed over 50% of the population (ie. The Ultimate Mandate)

www.cra.ca/en/home/Newsroom/SupportForRulingPCsRemainsHighinNL.aspx

There you go, undecided/not voting etc was 18%.

[minionofmidas]

LOL, nice cartoon, Bono.

[merseysider]

I would imagine that, with the election such an obviously one-sided affair, the turnout will be very low and people will see no real need to get out and vote, rather like Britain in 2001.

[Verily]

A poll listed by wiki gives the PC Party 76%, Liberals 16% and NDP 7%.
Anyone got anything else? Also, what explains this huge PC popularity? The way the Premier has fought to keep oil revenues? Not that I'm complaining, on the contrary.

Any idea on the absentions\undecided voters?

I don't think I've ever seen a poll like this.. I'm merely wondering would he succeed over 50% of the population (ie. The Ultimate Mandate)

Turnout in Canadian provincial elections is typically between 50-60%, so winning an absolute majority of the eligible voting population would be essentially impossible, even with 75% of the vote.

It's also worth noting that the poll provided is fairly old, and the Liberals actually gained a seat in a by-election since it was taken. (Still, a PC landslide is more or less guaranteed.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Where was the by-election? Newfies politics interests me, but I've not been following it much recently.

[Verily]

Humber Valley, but I was remembering a poll from earlier in the year showing landslide PC support, not the current one from September (which I wasn't aware of). The Humber Valley by-election was back in February.

Also, the PCs have already won a seat; Liberal Clayton Hobbs withdrew a couple of days ago, so Roger Fitzgerald has been acclaimed in Bonavista South. (The NDP was not fielding a candidate.) It's the first time a candidate has been acclaimed in Canada at the provincial level in... well... a long time.

[Gabu]

Given how ferociously the Conservative premier has fought tooth and nail against the federal government for Newfie interests, this doesn't surprise me one bit.  Any dislike for the federal Conservatives in Newfoundland has been rendered completely and totally irrelevant when it comes to people's feelings towards the provincial PCs; the premier has made it very clear that they do not have anything to do with each other.

[Hatman 🍁]

While they love him in Newfoundland, Williams isn't as popular in Labrador. Keep that in mind.

[Verily]

Early results have the PCs with over 67% of the vote and leading in 28 of the 32 ridings that have begun to report. (No riding has more than a handful of votes reported so far.)

[Verily]

Well, the Liberals will at least be represented. They have held Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair in Labrador. The PC vote is approaching 70% (right now 69.7-21.5-8.8, PC-Lib-NDP).

[Verily]

PCs above 70% now, at 70.3%. They've been declared the winners in 21 seats to the Liberals' 1 (and NDP's none, yet).

The difference between Labrador and everywhere else is stark. In Labrador, the current results are:

PC: 43.7
LIB: 32.8
NDP: 23.8

In every other region, the PCs have at least 55% of the vote (57% in the south, nearly 80% in St John's).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Liberal leader is trailing in his own district

[Hash]

Around 70.2% for the PC according to CBC Newsworld, which cut its coverage just now.

[Hash]

43-3-1 for the PC-Libs-NDP. (39 PC elected and 4 leading; 2 Liberals elected, 1 leading; 1 NDP elected)

Share

PC 69.54%
Liberals 21.87%
NDP 8.35%
Labrador Party and Indies 0.23%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

PC share of the vote is deflated due to an uncontested election in a safe seat. Just thought I mention that to, you know, make those figures even more astonishing...

...is this the end of the Newfies Liberals? Or will Williams eventually f*** up?

Btw, Liberal leader still trailing...

[Hash]

Btw, Liberal leader still trailing...

Not according to cbc: http://www.cbc.ca/nlvotes2007/riding/042

[Verily]

Btw, Liberal leader still trailing...

Not according to cbc: http://www.cbc.ca/nlvotes2007/riding/042

Final results have Reid losing by 7 votes. A recount will of course occur, but I think the result is unlikely to be overturned with so few votes in it to begin with.

Liberals leading by 51 votes in Port de Grave with 2 polls left. Could go either way. Otherwise:

PC: 43-44 seats (69.6%)
Lib: 2-3 seats (21.9%)
NDP: 1 seat (8.2%)

I believe 69.6% makes this (by far) the largest victory in a Canadian provincial election ever by percent of the vote. Both PEI and New Brunswick have seen clean sweeps, but with lower vote percentages.

[Verily]

Liberals hold Port de Grave. Final result:

PC: 43 (+1 delayed election in a safe PC seat)
Lib: 3
NDP: 1