1968: Rockefeller (R) vs. Humphrey (D) vs. Wallace

[Robespierre's Jaw]

How would the 1968 Presidential Election turn out if these were the tickets? The tickets being:

Republican

President: Governor, Nelson A. Rockefeller of New York
Vice President: Congressman, George H. W. Bush of Texas

Democratic

President: Vice President, Hubert H. Humphrey of Minnesota
Vice President: Senator, Ralph Yarborough of Texas

American Independent

President: Governor, George C. Wallace of Alabama
Vice President: General, William Westmoreland of South Carolina

Discuss with maps.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Humphrey/Yarborough: 42% PV, 235 EV
Rockefeller/Bush: 35% PV, 224 EV
Wallace/Westmoreland: 23% PV, 79 EV

[CPT MikeyMike]

I can't see how Rockefeller loses. He gets all of Nixon's states plus New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Maine. Wallace does slightly better in the South. As for Texas, it goes to Humphrey still as Bush is still generally unknown and conservatives are not flocking to Rockefeller. The VEEPs are not a major factor in this campaign.

Rockefeller/Bush: 340 EV, 44%  
Humphrey/Yarborough: 107 EV, 36%
Wallace/Westmoreland: 91 EV, 20% PV

[Lincoln Republican]

1968 would be a difficult election for the Democrats under any circumstances. 

The nation wants out of the Vietnam War, wants peace restored to the streets, and wants more attention paid to the economy.

Nelson Rockefeller is a strong and effective campaigner, with a solid record as Governor of a major state.  George Bush, though with only brief experience in elective office, has a well known and respected family name, who have a record of public service.

1968 would be Rockefeller's year to shine, and he would defeat Humphrey.

Humphrey, though a good man who would have made a very capable President, was the nominee at the wrong time.

Interestingly, General William Westmoreland was mentioned as a possible candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination in 1968.   

Rockefeller/Bush                        277
Humphrey/Yarborough               208
Wallace/Westmoreland                53

[True Democrat]

1968 would be a difficult election for the Democrats under any circumstances. 

The nation wants out of the Vietnam War, wants peace restored to the streets, and wants more attention paid to the economy.

Nelson Rockefeller is a strong and effective campaigner, with a solid record as Governor of a major state.  George Bush, though with only brief experience in elective office, has a well known and respected family name, who have a record of public service.

1968 would be Rockefeller's year to shine, and he would defeat Humphrey.

Humphrey, though a good man who would have made a very capable President, was the nominee at the wrong time.

Interestingly, General William Westmoreland was mentioned as a possible candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination in 1968.   

Rockefeller/Bush                        277
Humphrey/Yarborough               208
Wallace/Westmoreland                53

Because people in the South liked Rockefeller.

[Lincoln Republican]

1968 would be a difficult election for the Democrats under any circumstances. 

The nation wants out of the Vietnam War, wants peace restored to the streets, and wants more attention paid to the economy.

Nelson Rockefeller is a strong and effective campaigner, with a solid record as Governor of a major state.  George Bush, though with only brief experience in elective office, has a well known and respected family name, who have a record of public service.

1968 would be Rockefeller's year to shine, and he would defeat Humphrey.

Humphrey, though a good man who would have made a very capable President, was the nominee at the wrong time.

Interestingly, General William Westmoreland was mentioned as a possible candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination in 1968.   

Rockefeller/Bush                        277
Humphrey/Yarborough               208
Wallace/Westmoreland                53

Because people in the South liked Rockefeller.

They liked Rockefeller every bit as much as they liked ardent New Dealer, old style liberal, passionate pro civil rights advocate Humphrey.

Wallace's influence did not extend as greatly into the upper south or into more progressive Florida.

Rockefeller's running mate, Bush, from Texas, would help in the southern states that I show Rockefeller as winning.  Bush was more conservative than was Yarborough, and would be a greater asset in the south to Rockefeller than Yarborough would be in the south to Humphrey. 

[True Democrat]

1968 would be a difficult election for the Democrats under any circumstances. 

The nation wants out of the Vietnam War, wants peace restored to the streets, and wants more attention paid to the economy.

Nelson Rockefeller is a strong and effective campaigner, with a solid record as Governor of a major state.  George Bush, though with only brief experience in elective office, has a well known and respected family name, who have a record of public service.

1968 would be Rockefeller's year to shine, and he would defeat Humphrey.

Humphrey, though a good man who would have made a very capable President, was the nominee at the wrong time.

Interestingly, General William Westmoreland was mentioned as a possible candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination in 1968.   

Rockefeller/Bush                        277
Humphrey/Yarborough               208
Wallace/Westmoreland                53

Because people in the South liked Rockefeller.

They liked Rockefeller every bit as much as they liked ardent New Dealer, old style liberal, passionate pro civil rights advocate Humphrey.

Wallace's influence did not extend as greatly into the upper south or into more progressive Florida.

Rockefeller's running mate, Bush, from Texas, would help in the southern states that I show Rockefeller as winning.  Bush was more conservative than was Yarborough, and would be a greater asset in the south to Rockefeller than Yarborough would be in the south to Humphrey. 

While Nixon nearly lost TN and NC to Wallace, Rocky would win them.  Right.  Keep living in that delusional world of yours.

[Verily]

1968 would be a difficult election for the Democrats under any circumstances. 

The nation wants out of the Vietnam War, wants peace restored to the streets, and wants more attention paid to the economy.

Nelson Rockefeller is a strong and effective campaigner, with a solid record as Governor of a major state.  George Bush, though with only brief experience in elective office, has a well known and respected family name, who have a record of public service.

1968 would be Rockefeller's year to shine, and he would defeat Humphrey.

Humphrey, though a good man who would have made a very capable President, was the nominee at the wrong time.

Interestingly, General William Westmoreland was mentioned as a possible candidate for the Republican Presidential nomination in 1968.   

Rockefeller/Bush                        277
Humphrey/Yarborough               208
Wallace/Westmoreland                53

Because people in the South liked Rockefeller.

They liked Rockefeller every bit as much as they liked ardent New Dealer, old style liberal, passionate pro civil rights advocate Humphrey.

Wallace's influence did not extend as greatly into the upper south or into more progressive Florida.

Rockefeller's running mate, Bush, from Texas, would help in the southern states that I show Rockefeller as winning.  Bush was more conservative than was Yarborough, and would be a greater asset in the south to Rockefeller than Yarborough would be in the south to Humphrey. 

While Nixon nearly lost TN and NC to Wallace, Rocky would win them.  Right.  Keep living in that delusional world of yours.

Didn't you know? Republicans always win alternate elections.

[Lincoln Republican]

Another possible scenario in this race.

Wallace and Westmoreland sweep the south, with the exception of Texas, which goes Democrat, narrowly, due to the fact that Yarborough iks on the ticket.  The south, except for Texas, is unwilling to give any of their electoral votes to either of the northeastern liberals.

Rockefeller and Bush virtually sweep through the northeast, with the exceptions of lower New England and Pennsylvania, continue their dominance through the midwest, losing only Michigan, Missouri, and understandably Humphrey's home state of Minnesota to the Democrats.

The Rockefeller juggernaut continues it's drive westward, sweeping the plains states, the mountain states, the southwest, and continuing onto the west coast, capturing California and Oregon, while losing only Washington.  Rockefeller takes Alaska and Humphrey takes Hawaii.

In 1968, the nation is hungry for a change in administration.  The nation wants out of Vietnam, and blame the Democrats for the the Vietnam debacle, and for the unrest and rioting at home. 

Bush, Yarborough, and Westmoreland all prove to be good running mates.

Rockefeller offers "decisive and forceful leadership for America"  and promises to "bring our troops home."

Rockefeller blames "the Democrats, who control the administration and who control Congress, for the Vietnam misadventure, for the unrest at home, and for the chaos on the streets of America." 

Rockefeller promises to "unite America, restore order in the streets, and to lift the spirits of Americans from coast to coast." 

Rockefeller states, "I offer leadership for the future, Vice President Humphrey offers the same failed, tired, visionless leadership America has had for the past eight years."

Rockefeller and Bush defeat Humphrey and Yarborough and Wallace and Westmoreland in a close, hard fought, acrimonious campaign.

America opts for real change, and rejects a continuation of the status quo that has failed America.         

Rockefeller/Bush                         270
Humphrey/Yarborough               156
Wallace/Westmoreland              112

[Lief 🗽]

Humphrey 202
Rockefeller 233
Wallace 103

Humphrey wins in the House.

[johnpressman]

I grew up in New York during Nelson Rockefeller's tenure as Governor.  I firmly believe that his divorce and remarrige ended his Presidential aspirations.   Combine that with his famous podium appearance before the 1964 GOP Convention and his subsequent failure to support Goldwater and you have a  non-starter.  Besides, the conservative wing had taken over the GOP after 20 years of rule by the more liberal Eastern Establishment.  Elephants have long memories and they were not voting for Rocky even in the best of circumstances.

Rocky/Humphrey/Wallace race in 1968 poses the question "Who are the conservatives voting for?"  Rocky's fiscal policies, combined with his NY ways and the aforementioned issues are a turn-off to conservatives.  Wallace's brand of Soutern-fried politics is a turn off to most voters of ANY persuasion outisde of the Old Confederacy. I almost see a 4th party emerging in this scenario.   Excluding that possibility, I dunno about this one.  With Rocky heading the GOP ticket, all bets are off.  For instance, would rural, normally Republican voters stay with Rocky or, turned off by his divorce, NY attitude and wealth, vote for middle class, salt-of-the-earth Humphrey?  Would Wallace win enough Electoral votes to throw a close race into the house??   Would there be televised debates and would Wallace participate?  More questions than answers, but don't discount a Humphrey landslide or the election going to the House with Humphrey, the  Democrat, wining.

[gorkay]

One of the problems Rockefeller had (at least in his fairly liberal, pre-Attica incarnation) was that he was more popular with the general electorate than he was within his own party, for the reasons that johnpressman has so nicely enumerated. There are some parallels between his situation and Giuliani's.

[HardRCafé]

Where do people get the idea Washington was Democrat back then?